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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has a new president: the senior official of Indian origin Suma Chakrabarti, currently serving in the Ministry of Justice UK. The candidate endorsed by London was elected last night at the general meeting of the bank on the third ballot, with some 52% of the vote. He was then still opposed to the French Philippe de Fontaine Vive Curtaz (23% of the vote), Vice-President of the European Investment Bank (EIB), supported by Paris, and German Thomas Mirow (18% of votes) , the post of chairman since 2008, candidate to succeed him – who had the favor of Berlin.

This is the first time in the history of the EBRD, the presidency of the bank escapes to France or Germany. A result largely due to the impossibility What had the countries of the European Union to agree on an upstream joint application.

The EBRD was created in response to the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. While the Soviet bloc fell one by one, Western leaders had been seized by the fear of emptiness. And it took them just six months to organize an international conference at the Elysee, in the month of May 1990, the treaty establishing the EBRD was signed by 40 heads of state or government, plus the European Commission and the EIB .

Expanded mission

Less than a year later, in April 1991, its headquarters was in working in London in a building of marble, with a little too flashy luxury that will require Jacques Attali, its first president, to resign two years later . The latter, as "special adviser" of Mitterrand, will not remain forever under his real designer.

"A third World Bank, two-thirds Lazard," was launched Attali, who wanted to avoid the rigidities of official development assistance. Today, with a capital of 30 billion euros, it never occurs alone but in partnership with private operators, mainly banks. In principle, its participation in financing projects should not exceed 35%.

His second feature, which distinguishes it from all other international financial institutions, its mission is to promote the market economy, but with intervention only in countries that are subject to "democratic principles", according to terms of reference. Its scope is vast, ranging from the restructuring of public enterprises and SME support to nuclear safety and decommissioning of old plants, including the Chernobyl site.

More original still, the EBRD is defined as deliberately "a bank of Transition" (sic). It is not intended to stay on forever, she believes. "Once the mission is to support the market economy accomplished in a country, we close representation," we said Jean Lemierre, who chaired the EBRD from 2001 to 2008. Initially, she had to withdraw in 2010 the countries that joined the EU in 2004, and it may seem paradoxical that the EBRD remains in Slovakia and Slovenia, which joined the euro area. But because of the financial crisis of 2008, it was agreed that she would remain until 2015.

While the volume of its loans reached a cruising speed of 9 billion euros a year (a quarter in favor of Russia), the shift in the South has been the hallmark of the mandate of Thomas Mirow. He believes that the EBRD is now able to "attract 7.5 billion euros of investment per year in North Africa and Jordan."

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In 2008, he cherished the hope of becoming the first secretary of the PS. But he had finally lined up behind the candidacy of Bertrand Delanoe. In 2011, he thought he could be a candidate for the Socialist primary. Then he threw in the towel, choosing to support Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then rallying Francois Hollande not without obtaining the position of campaign manager. Pierre Moscovici, 54, has learned to give up. Here he is rewarded. He is back in force to the government and assigned the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Foreign Trade. Certainly it does not get the Quai d'Orsay which he dreamed, Laurent Fabius was his favorite. But he inherited a portfolio to match its ambitions. And thereby in passing some disappointed, Michel Sapin in mind. "Mosco" consensual socialist, social democrat, is now a heavyweight team Ayrault, number five in protocol order.

It is he who will be at the forefront of the debt crisis. There is no shortage of assets since knows the workings of Europe. He was, for five years, from 1997 to 2002, Minister Delegate for European Affairs in the Jospin government. At the time, the rise of the Express near the then prime minister, who had just been elected deputy of the Doubs for the first time, had been criticized. But, he will prove himself. Former MEP, a graduate of Sciences Po and ENA, he will prepare no quack the French presidency of the EU, negotiating the Treaty of Nice and the European Constitutional Treaty. During this period of cohabitation, he managed also to find his place against Jacques Chirac. In fact, the President of the Republic and the Socialist Minister for European Affairs are of course in these five years: Chirac taking the young minister with no experience under his wing, even to comfort him when he doubted. An agreement with Lionel Jospin was annoyed.

After the failure of the left in 2002, Moscovici was defeated in the parliamentary elections in the Doubs. A year earlier, he had already failed to municipal Montbéliard. Without parliamentary seat, without mayor, he tried his luck with the 2004 European and found his seat in Strasbourg. In 2007 he was again legislative candidate in the Doubs. This time he wins.

Pierre Moscovici, tried by the Revolutionary Communist League when he was young, joined the PS in 1984. He was close to Michel Rocard, Jospin and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, his former professor at the ENA. He is the son of a social psychologist Serge Moscovici, who was a member of the Romanian Communist Party and fled his country in 1947. Pierre Moscovici was the first to openly criticize the Socialist Francois Mitterrand and his relationship with Rene Bousquet. "What shocks me, he said, is that he can spawn with someone who has been a tool of the state anti-Semitism and an accomplice of the final solution of the Reich." … …..

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The growth figure of France for the first quarter, published this morning, was highly anticipated: it sets the tone of the beginning of the quinquennium the new president. And with sluggish growth in the first three months of the year (after a small increase of 0.1% the last three months of 2011, revised downwards), the least we can say is that the situation will not help Francois Hollande to the implementation of its program. None of the drivers of growth and gives no sign of strength: consumer expenditures of households are "sluggish" (0.2% in the first quarter, after +0.1% the previous one), while investment companies folds (-1.4%), INSEE said. And if imports return to growth, they do not offset the slowdown in exports sufficiently to prevent the trade weighs on growth. As for the production of goods and services, it turns "idle". In total, the growth overhang at the end of March – that is to say, the theoretical progression of GDP if the activity remained stable until the end of the year – amounted to 0.2%.

This stagnation of activity is not a surprise: the National Institute of Statistics had anticipated in March, when it published its quarterly notes on "the fever subsides, recovery will be slow." But the institute did not know then is that this turn of events in Greece could slow it down even further … If the time is not yet at risk of contagion to the Hexagon, "he Avoid the chaotic moments that disturb everyone, Greece is 2% of EU GDP, but this may be part of the little things that become large if not managed properly, "said an official of Bercy.

Dealing with an uncertain

Still, Francois Hollande will have to deal with an uncertain environment low fee cash advance. While the European Commission approved last week forecast growth of 0.5% this year, she expressed doubts about the ability of the new government to reach the figure of 1.7% growth in 2013. However, Francois Hollande believes in his ability to bounce activity. His lieutenant, Michel Sapin, cites as evidence the industrial policy announced by the candidate – more favorable, he said, growth – and European initiatives to materialize before he sees the end of next year, thanks an agreement between France and Germany.

In fact, the new team has no choice if she wants to meet his campaign promises and not be forced to reconsider all of its forecasts. Less growth because it means more unemployment, more deficit and more debt.

To balance its budget equation and honor commitments of public finances – down to 3% of GDP next year – François Hollande planned 29 billion in additional revenue by the end of 2013. But the task is of great magnitude. INSEE has confirmed that the government deficit in France at the end of 2011 stood at 103.1 billion euros, or 5.2% of GDP (decreased by 33.9 billion euros compared to 2010) , "because both the revenue buoyancy and expenditure restraint." It must come down to 4.5% this year. Public debt, it has reached 86% of GDP in 2011. Francois Hollande can not afford any off the road.

Especially since only a few hours meeting with Angela Merkel, Germany has put pressure on France: in the first quarter the economy across the Rhine has seen its GDP grow by 0.5%, bringing its growth on a rolling year to 1.7%. Numbers well above economists' forecasts.

Countries of the euro, torn on the path of growth and the cost of austerity, are virtually unanimous on Greece. All institutions and capital combined, the pressure is on Athens and a government may be found, but already called upon to choose between honoring its commitments and the abandonment of the euro.

The hypothesis of a rupture between Greece and the common currency had found adherents in late summer 2011 at the height of the dealings between the former Papandreou government and its creditors. After two years of bailouts and broken promises, the scenario is no longer taboo. But never before EU officials had protested as loudly as the "Grexit," as they say in the markets, could be, after all, the least bad solution.

Usually consensus, the Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, opened fire ensuring that "better" than Greece leaves the club money if it does not follow the law. Olli Rehn, his right arm, drives the point home by explaining that the eurozone is now better positioned to absorb the impact. Clearly, Athens would have no means of blackmail with its creditors. For the euro area, the Commissioner insists, "there is no way" to ease the second recovery plan, agreed in March.

In terms of capital, the German Wolfgang Schaeuble wanted to give the "A". The euro area, he said, "can support an output of Greece." And the ECB, two governors abound. If Athens does not say, "there is more reason to support it financially," Jens Weidmann advance, also head of the Bundesbank. From Ireland, a country itself on life support, his colleague Patrick Honohan said that Greece "is ipso facto recover money from the block" if it renounced the word. A set of targeted preceding the appointment of the Eurogroup, on Monday evening in Brussels.

Facade of unity

The message is more political than financial: it is to bring the Greeks – mostly attached to the single currency, according to polls – to withhold their support for extremists and to open their eyes to the illusions that make the soft budget compatible with the euro. Nothing says that this move will lead to the desired result. There is no guarantee that an outflow of Greece would benefit its partners, beyond the political failure it would spend for the common currency and the EU as a whole. Council President Van Rompuy, more nuanced, notes that "the solution to the crisis is growing in Europe."

The puzzle Greek allows at least a facade of unity with leaders of the common currency. At the Eurogroup, two other cases may show otherwise divided, at least undecided: first, how to behave with respect to Spain, apparently unable to meet the target of a budget deficit reduced 3% in 2013, then a game of musical chairs constantly postponed at the head of financial institutions of the EU. Are concerned at least four sensitive positions: President of the Eurogroup (for which the German Wolfgang Schäuble is a candidate), the general direction of the new permanent emergency fund SS, a position at the ECB Executive Board and, finally, the Presidency of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). On this seat, Paris and Berlin diverge, to the despair of many Europeans. French side, the absence this Monday night at the Eurogroup of finance minister – Baroin, outgoing holder of the portfolio, did not go to it – will add to the inertia.

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Wednesday after the nationalization of the first network of savings banks Bankia, the Spanish government on Friday introduced a new banking reform, the second in less than three months. Madrid requires banks an additional provision of $ 30 billion. This will add to the 53 billion that should already be provisioned by the end of the year to cover the risk of real estate the most problematic, representing € 184 billion globally, according to Bank of Spain.

This caution will also be extended to 123 billion of property assets considered non-problematic "for their hypothetical deterioration" in the words of Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos. In total, Spanish banks will be funded 45% of their total real estate assets by the end of the year. Before the first government reform Rajoy, the rate was only 14%, the minister recalled. Other decision, banks will separate the real estate assets from their balance sheets and place them in specialized agencies, to better assess the right price. "It will be mandatory for all entities," the minister said. In the interests of transparency, and meet there at a request of the Eurogroup, Madrid will carry out audits of accounts. "Two independent evaluators" will be responsible for judging the soundness and credibility of assessments.

Recession in 2013

The question is how banks can finance such levels of provision and how much will be deducted from their own funds. Guindos recalled that during the last injection of public money made by the previous government, the fund Frob had lent 15 billion euros to banks. "The total should be this time significantly lower," he thought, noting that the state would receive an interest rate of 10% on money lent. "The Frob keeps 5 billion in cash. We will see how it will be necessary to supplement, "said Guindos. The Minister further stated that this funding through convertible bonds to five years, would cost "nothing" to the taxpayer.

The exercise of clarity has not convinced the markets: the Madrid Stock Exchange immediately plunged 3%, carried away by banks. The chief minister, Mariano Rajoy, nice hammer that the deficit will not be affected, the target of 5.3% of GDP this year, against 8.5% in December, and above 3% target in 2013 , is very hypothetical. The European Commission, which today released its new forecasts for the euro area, anticipates a deficit of 6.3% of GDP in 2012, even worse, 6.4% in 2013. In less than three months, Brussels has revised up sharply the recession, to 1.8% of GDP, against 1% previously. Next year, the economy would be even the only Iberian euro area to be in red.

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The new president, Francois Hollande, he will see in the figures released Thursday one more reason to fight to include a growth component in the European priorities? He will find anyway confirmation that we will have to roll up their sleeves for the activity to return to France.

The Banque de France (BDF) has announced a forecast of zero growth of the economy in the second quarter 2012 – INSEE, it provides a small rebound in the spring, 0.2%. The BDF had previously announced a steady growth for the first quarter. That is to say that the French might be sluggish activity in the first six months of the year.

The unknown Greek

To quote the head of its program, Michel Sapin, a few days ago, Francois Hollande will have no state of grace on the economic front! The latter based his economic program on a growth forecast of 0.5% this year (followed by 1.7% next year and 2% in 2014 and 2% to 2.5% thereafter until 2017 ). A hypothesis that remains credible, unless the Greek turbulence does just weaken the entire euro zone.

In tests conducted by the Banque de France, the prospects in the services today are estimated by "slight erosion". As for industry, they indicate that the order books do not evolve and are also counting on "a slight decline in activity for the coming months easy payday loans."

The National Institute of Statistics, parallel, published a study that confirms this gloom. In March, the production of the entire industry declined (-0.9%), consumption of electricity and gas has "declined sharply with the warm weather." Production of manufacturing industry, it has increased over one month (1.4%), but it is only to offset the decline in February.

Judgment of the Petit Couronne refinery

Moreover, throughout the first quarter, production fell 0.5% in manufacturing. A sharp decline (-1.7%) compared to what the production of the first quarter of 2011. In one year, some areas have suffered more: the production has fallen sharply in electrical, electronic and computer (-1.7%) and to a lesser extent, transport equipment (-0.6%). Refining, marked especially by cessation of the Petit Couronne refinery, fell sharply (-18.4%), also stresses the INSEE. Conversely, the agricultural and food industries have their own in the game

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France has not lost fiscal credibility in one night: the election of Francois Hollande suddenly does not make the country less able to finance its debt. While remembering not to take any "political position" is the message that wished to address the rating agency Standard & Poor's Monday morning, issuing a statement saying that the memo from France – "AA +" with perspective negative – was not challenged.

"We still believe there is at least one in three chance that we may need to lower the long-term rating of France this year or in 2013," says S & P, however, with regard to finances public.

Test market 16 May

In its statement, the agency says it will "analyze the choice of new president and new government" and take into account in any future decision on the outcome of the June elections payday advances.

The next auction of debt, which will be held Thursday, May 16, should serve as a real test markets. It is at this moment that we will know if investor demand to fund the French debt is as important as ever.

At the Agence France Trésor (AFT), we simply note that Monday morning, "the 10-year yield continues to relax"

.

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Finally! Nearly three years after entering into partnership, the Alliance Search, research online, the Microsoft and Yahoo! extend to Europe. The operation aims to add Internet searches conducted since those of Yahoo! Bing, the search engine from Microsoft.

This partnership aims to bridge the delay between the two groups facing Google. They desperately need to increase their market share. First, because the algorithms used by search engines feed on queries made: most recent, the stronger the results will be relevant by users.

By capturing more online research, Search Alliance also aims to improve the profitability available to online advertisers and attractiveness. Furthermore, this joint platform simplifies the management of advertising campaigns for advertisers. Thursday, May 4, customers advertising French, British and Irish Yahoo! Search have been switched on the Microsoft platform Adverstising Center. The next step will concern Germany, Switzerland and Austria.

On paper, this combination has many advantages, including simplification, and the advantage of offering an alternative to Google. The only problem is that people do not follow. In the U.S., Google holds nearly two-thirds of the market for online search. Just over 80% in France.

The CEO of Yahoo! lied on his CV

In addition, the deployment of this agreement is particularly slow. Especially in a world that is changing as rapidly as the Web. While Google reflects on responses to set up facing the rise of Facebook, Search Alliance is still looking to counter Google.

And for good reason. The agreement between Microsoft and Yahoo! on-line search was concluded in July 2009. Two years after having negotiated, Carol Bartz, Yahoo! CEO then, decided to suspend operations because of disappointing results, especially for sponsored links. Since then, Carol Bartz was dismissed with loss and noise, before being replaced four months later by Scott Thompson.

But Yahoo! unlucky. Only the group he was commended for a new CEO is a scandal erupted on May 3 Scott Thompson lied on his resume. The man claims to computer science graduate from a prestigious university. It actually has a degree in accounting. The information was revealed by Dan Loeb, head of a fund activist who is seeking seats on the board of Yahoo!. And now, the head of the new boss. If he defends himself by noting that it is just a simple "failure", that is not enough to silence the fire from critics.

United States, we do not mess with the lie. This controversy could not come at a worse for Yahoo!. Already analysts are betting on a possible resignation.

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The lake has almost caught fire Thursday in Zurich. The traditional meeting of the shareholders of UBS has turned into a quiet but determined fight. The shareholders of the largest financial institution Swiss have strongly criticized the remuneration policy of the group, before voting 36% against it.

Lengthy explanations of President Kaspar Villiger have done anything to calm the discontented. The welcome bonus of 2 million Swiss francs (1.66 million), booked his designated successor, former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, was singled out. After the trading loss of $ 2.2 billion last fall, bonuses for market operators and their representatives also shocked. The vote is only advisory, but Kaspar Villiger was assured that the bank "takes this result seriously."

Executive Officer of UBS expected to live a difficult meeting. After four years of crisis, which results in the lowest equity valuations, bank shareholders, the U.S. and Europe are growing impatient. Everywhere, the remuneration is in sight. And for the first time, the challenge of these salaries and bonuses to seven figures than the man in the street. Driven by consulting firms or foundations, as Ethos and Actares Switzerland, institutional shareholders, insurers and large pension funds amounted to turn the tone against these huge salaries.

Last week, Credit Suisse, 31.6% of shareholders voted against the plan and executive compensation. Only 23% opposed it a year earlier. Meanwhile, the wage paid to Brady Dougan, the chief American institution, had been halved, 5.8 million Swiss francs (4.8 million) in 2011 against 12.8 million a year earlier. Over the same period, the share value has fallen by 41%. The same day, at the Royal Festival Hall in London, Barclays faced a protest vote by 26.9%, still on the part of remuneration guaranteed pay day loans.

Opposition all the more remarkable that management hoped to have cleared the situation by announcing a week before the general meeting that the executive directors and financial, Bob Diamond and Chris Lucas, would submit half of their 2011 bonuses to performance targets . Originally, Bob Diamond would receive 17.7 million pounds (nearly 22 million euros). The bank chairman, Marcus Agius, has "apologized (to shareholders) and promised that we will move differently in the future."

No vote in France

At the Citigroup, the reaction was even more severe: 55% of shareholders refused to pay $ 15 million promised to the Director, Vikram Pandit, after two years paid a salary by a dollar. This vote was, once again, not binding, the subjects of remuneration remain the prerogative of the board. But the impact in terms of image is of course considerable. Executive Officer of Citigroup has promised to "take seriously the shareholder vote and to consider carefully their remarks."

These votes on compensation plans have gradually imposed from Britain to all OECD countries. Only France is still resistance. "While employers have everything to gain by legitimizing their remuneration, French companies are now the only ones in Europe not to submit payments of their leaders to a general vote of the shareholders," said Pierre-Henri Leroy and President Proxinvest, the French agency governance analysis. The subject was asked in the presidential campaign. Nicolas Sarkozy has declared in favor of a shareholder vote on pay. Francois Hollande has not explicitly expressed on the subject.

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