Sundial of world news

This Saturday, the employees of the 500 Carrefour Market in France are expected to strike. Rue Maubeuge in Paris this morning, they were a fortnight before their store to answer the call of the CGT and soft petitions and leaflets to customers. They want to be housed in the same boat as their colleagues in Carrefour hypermarkets, according to the association, which, it is a little over a month, have mobilized massively, and with success.

On April 9, in fact, the movement – "historic" by the unions, had allowed the reopening of negotiations with management. The employees were then granted a special bonus of 220 euros gross July 31, the transition from 7 to 10% of discount on purchases (including gasoline) granted to staff and a commitment to renegotiate, the end November and a revaluation of the holiday allowance to go to a 14th month.The draft agreement, which will be endorsed on May 18, also provides for annual wage increases of 2% in March, is correlated with inflation, instead of the expected increase of 1% and 1% in March in October.

Beyond wages, working conditions are up for discussion. The union FGTA-FO deplores the removal of 10,000 jobs over the past five years, and denounced a "new business model based on night work generalized ultra simplified workflow and increased stress for employees.

Fighting the new economic model of the group

The Carrefour group is in the midst of strategic transformation, including its plans for divisions and development of its new hypermarket Planet.Mutations that cause a stir both at the executive level – the CEO France left the group last May 5, two months after the departure of Director – Europe and employees.

At the next general meeting to be held on June 21 next, they oppose the proposed division by the stock exchange's subsidiary Dia hard discount and the 25% of the land Carrefour Property. But their voice is low, employees own about 1% of capital and 1.76% of voting rights. The unions called the Mutual Fund Business (CIPF), which holds 1.33% shares and double voting rights, to say no, and so to endorse the position of the fund Knight Vinke (over 1 % of capital). In total, they would be 4% against the heavyweights Bernard Arnault and Colony Capital, which have 14% stake and 20% of voting rights.According to unions, these operations "purely financial and non-trade" would bring six billion euros to the two main shareholders, Bernard Arnault and Colony Capital.

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The NYSE playing yoyo on Thursday. After starting down (-0.20% for the Dow Jones), the indices reflected the upward path. About 20 hours in Paris, the Dow Jones gained 0.48% at 12,691 points, the Nasdaq is 0.56% at 2861 points and the S & P advance of 0.51% to 1349 points.

This return is in the green at the same time as the rise in oil prices. The latter, who had also opened lower at 96.96 dollars, recovered after a sharp color correction yesterday. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price rises to $ 99.

Caution remains formatting: "Concerns about Europe and the debt crisis with the International Monetary Fund warning of a risk of contagion from the situation in Greece, indicators Chinese earlier this week, The warning from the International Energy Agency on oil demand, it all comes out at once and shower market, "said Phil Flynn of PFG Best Research.

Greece worries

The fiscal situation in Greece still disturbs the meeting. Thousands of Greeks have shown Wednesday, the day of general strike against austerity measures and privatizations decided by the government that seeks new international aid to avoid a debt restructuring of the country.

In the wake of these events, the euro fell sharply against the greenback, falling below $ 1.42 Wednesday. But about 20 hours, the single currency rises.The euro bought 1.4266 dollars at that time against 1.4193 dollars late Wednesday.

Retail sales and producer prices

On the macroeconomic front, retail sales rose slightly less than expected in April in the U.S. (+0.5% against 0.6%), posting their smallest increase in nine months as rising prices Food and fuel accounts for household spending.The producer prices have increased them by 0.8% in April according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department, more than expected by analysts who had forecast 0.5%.

New jobless claims fell to 434,000 during the first week of May, according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department, down nearly equal to the unexpected increase in the previous week.

Finally, business inventories rose more than expected in March, while sales posted their largest gain in a year, suggesting that first-quarter GDP will be revised upward, said Thursday the Commerce Department.Inventories rose 1.0% to 1.476 billion dollars, its highest level since November 2008, while economists polled by Reuters had waited an increase of 0.8%.

The side of values

The oil companies, heavyweights rating penalized yesterday by falling prices, contributing to their rise on Thursday. Thus, Chevron gained 0.66% to 102.936 dollars and ExxonMobil up from 0.38% to 81.43 dollars.

Cisco has unveiled for the fourth quarter of 2010/2011 a turnover of 1.67 billion, up 9% and net profits tax of 168 million dollars against 184 million last year. For the current quarter, the software company believes that business prospects are mixed and the current quarter will be "low" according to the leaders. The title loses 6.02% to 16.72 dollars.

The publisher of security software and antivirus software, Symantec (3.40 to 20.07 dollars) has announced earnings per share of 38 cents against 36 cents expected by analysts, and a turnover of 1 , 67 billion also exceeded expectations of analysts who had forecast $ 1.6 billion.

Google Internet group (-0.80% to 531.15 U.S. dollars) will launch next month the first computers using its new operating system chrome, representing a total challenge to the business model of Microsoft with its Windows system.These computers manufactured by Acer and Samsung, will have the distinction of having the browser Chrome only software preinstalled.

The U.S. internet group Yahoo! (-1.51% To 16.95 dolars) is still buffeted stock exchange after revealing that a subsidiary of the Chinese payment service online Alibaba Group, where he has a major stake, was passed under the control of boss Jack Ma of Alibaba

The rating agency Standard and Poor's said Wednesday evening that she fell a notch to "BBB", the note of U.S. chemicals group Dow Chemical (-1.23% to 38.52 U.S. dollars) with a stable outlook, due to the progress of its results and its prospects for debt reduction.

Also note, the leaders of telecom operators AT & T and T-Mobile (+0.13% to 31.42 dollars) clashed Wednesday night on U.S. lawmakers skeptical of their merger at $ 39 billion, announced in March . "Now four companies control nearly 90% of the national market of mobile telephony," said Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy. He called the competition authorities and Communications to conduct an extensive review of the transaction.

Cap the accumulated social minimum, establish hours of general utility to the beneficiaries of RSA, increase eligibility for foreigners … the proposals of the European Affairs Minister Laurent Wauquiez, stated on Sunday RMC and BFM TV, raised an outcry among the left and associations.

How does the RSA?

Created in 2009 by Martin Hirsch, then High Commissioner for Active Solidarity, the Revenu de solidarité active (RSA) is divided between an amount of "base" (466.99 euros this year), paid to a person who does not work and the "RSA activity" that complements a low wage. Its amount decreases gradually as the wage increases.

A recipient of the RSA is required to follow the actions of insertion and can not refuse more than two reasonable offers of employment as defined in the custom project.In 2010, 1.8 million people have benefited from the RSA.

What is the maximum amount currently received by a beneficiary?

There is no ceiling to the total tested benefits enshrined in law. But in fact, adding the main aid, some stand out maximum amounts. Thus, by combining the RSA and housing assistance (which varies depending on the rent and the circumstances of the person and can reach 298 euros per month), a single person without children can receive up to 709 euros per month. A couple whose members are inactive can, in turn, affect up to 945 euros per month. This is indeed a sum greater than 75% of net monthly minimum wage (804 euros), which is the maximum threshold of accumulated social minima proposed by Laurent Wauquiez.

But the people receiving the minimum wage have also, entitled to aid, such as housing allowance and a bonus for the job.A couple where one spouse earns the minimum wage can have an income of up to 1400 euros. Is a notable difference from a couple idle up to around 450 euros.

For pensioners, the situation is different: "It is possible that the minimum pension recipients who receive housing assistance affect maximum the same as a couple where one spouse works, says William Allegre, an economist at the OFCE specializes in social policy. At age 65, the problem of work incentives do not arise. The objective is to ensure that society older standard of living above poverty line ".

For these benefits, there are the "rights", very difficult to estimate, which are voluntary aid paid by local authorities.They cover areas as diverse as school meals, transport and access to sports facilities such as swimming.

Where is France?

For fifty years, the share of social benefits in French disposable income has jumped from 16.3% in 1960 to 30.8% in 2009, according to figures from INSEE. However, France is today the average of OECD countries: the main social assistance account for 59% of average earnings. By comparison, they reach 104% in Denmark, 84% Japan 83% in Ireland, Sweden 81% or 63% in Germany.

What would be the consequence of a ceiling on minimum social benefits?

The Minister of European Affairs would "cap the aggregate of all the social minimum to 75% of minimum wage, no more." "Talking cap is like trying to reduce aid," said Guillaume Allègre.But with a current unemployment rate to 9% this financial incentive would be ineffective, according to the Economist: "It would only ensure that the poor are poorer."

View shared by Christopher Noel, a lawyer specializing in labor law: "We know that in most cases, the problem is not economic but personal criteria: they are, for example, women with three or four children, of disabled or people with illnesses. A cap will change nothing but stigmatize the problem part of the population. "

Establish hours of general utility is it realistic?

In consideration of the RSA, Laurent Wauquiez proposes to introduce five hours weekly of general utility. "This is a proposal that raised more questions than it answers, answers Guillaume Allègre. It should create public jobs to oversee this work.In addition, follow a million people could create many administrative problems. " For the economist, between transport costs, any meal vouchers, travel difficulties for people with health problems and management costs, the proposal could be more costly than what it reported.

Master Christopher Noel also fears that the measure is ineffective: a mother or a person with a health problem will always be so difficult to get to work. "If people refuse, is that they remove their social minimum? In this case, is what it will create another minimum, even lower? Guillaume Allègre also questioned.Finally, what activities will be considered public utilities? And why not create public jobs for them? "

Finally, the proposal is largely "symbolic," concludes Guillaume Allegre: "Making lives more difficult for economically inactive people who work are more satisfied."

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With the boom in smartphones, iPhone in mind, insurers are facing a surge of claims. "All insurance plans for mobile phone are deficient because of the iPhone," said one trader. "We are facing both an increase in claims frequency and higher average cost of claims. All this weighs on the technical results, "says Catherine Lanson, communications director of SPB, broker manager at France's leading insurance mobile and handheld products.

On smartphones losses reach 35% against 20% on standard phones. As the average cost, it has doubled from 300 to 600 euros. "Besides the iPhone is over-represented in the portfolio of insurers with respect to its actual weight on the market as it is expensive, it is more fragile and he steals, consumers are more likely to sure, "says Catherine Lanson."Currently, 80 to 90% of claims relate to smartphones," says Anne-Laure Commault, director of mobile offerings from Orange.

Fragile

The case is the main source of complaints: it represents two thirds of claims against a third flight. All operators, claims related to breakage cost 400,000 euros and 200,000 euros for the flight. More fragile than previous generations of mobile clamshell or slider, smartphones with their large touch screen does not forgive the fall or landing in the toilet. This is the case of the iPhone 3 and the iPhone 3G, whose screen break if dropped on the pavement without protection payday loan lenders.Apple has taken this into account on the iPhone 4, where he worked the robustness of the screen.

Today, 6 million French people have provided their mobile phones: 4 million have taken insurance directly from their operator, 500 000 are insured through their bank, and $ 1.5 million through specialized distribution or retail. The rate of insured, reduced to 60 million mobile users, remains low but is rising sharply.

30 to 130 euros per year

Insuring your smartphone costs from 30 to 130 euros per year. Operators and insurers all offer forms for 3 euros, 6 euros or 9 euros per month, depending on the reimbursement ceiling. Despite the explosion of claims, they do not include higher insurance premiums. They rely instead on technological advances that help block mobile in case of theft, making it useless.On breaks, they play a tougher enforcement of the contract. Mostly, they try to stop fraud, which, estimated between 20% and 25% is huge. "Coincidentally, we note the real peaks of claims before the release of a new generation of iPhone," says Catherine Lanson. Insurers are now replacing broken or stolen laptops with identical phones reconditioned. One way to deter misrepresentation!

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The markets took fright on Friday night after a new European cacophony. Greece had threatened to leave the euro in discussions with the European Commission, reports the website of German magazine Der Spiegel quoted a government source in Berlin. The major European capitals have refuted this information.

"These items are a challenge, undermine the effort of Greece and the euro and serve speculative games," said the Greek finance ministry said in a statement. "We did not discuss output of Greece in the euro area, we all think it would be a stupid option," added the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. "The assumption of an outflow of Greece to the euro area is completely fanciful", also assured Bercy.

Despite denials by the French, German and Greek, the single currency accelerated its decline against the dollar.Friday night shortly before 22:30, the euro lost nearly 1.4% to 1.4338 dollar. Rumor sign a new stage, and this information is disturbing. It is not surprising that the euro will weaken, "said one analyst at a U.S. bank. At the same time, the cost of insurance against a collapse of the Greek debt ("Credit default swaps, or CDS) jumped from 74 basis points to a record 1,370 basis points, according to Markit.

Meeting in Luxembourg

An emergency meeting, was held between some finance ministers from the eurozone. Jean-Claude Juncker as a German government source quoted by AFP on Saturday, it was denied solely on Greece.

"These are meetings that take place at irregular intervals, and mainly" the members of the euro area as the G20, such as France, Germany and Italy, the source said German.It argues, the discussions covered a wide variety of topics, including the regulation of financial markets, with Portugal, but also the financial situation of Greece. The Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou also confirmed to have attended the meeting Friday.

A debt restructuring envisaged Greek

According to the Greek press on Saturday, new support measures have been studied. The financial daily Naftemboriki referred to the lengthening of bonds maturing this year and in 2012, leaving Greece a breather. According to another newspaper, Kathimerini, the objectives of reducing the public deficit could also be pushed back two to four years, or interest rates in exchange for an extended break of two years, during which the country does not pay interest.

Contradictory statements are troubling indeed the euro area in recent weeks about a possible debt restructuring Greek. Lars Feld, one of economic advisers to Angela Merkel, considered by example on Sunday that the restructuring is "the only way forward so that Greece is a little relieved that creditors and help to solve the Greek problem." Jean-Claude Juncker for his part assured that this option had been ruled Friday. While stating that the possibility of a new adjustment program would be discussed at the next meeting of the Eurogroup on 16 May.

The RSA is still too much to summarize for the assistantship. This is the opinion of the UMP on the social benefit created in late 2008 to replace the RMI. A member of the majority – Peter Lang – early April has filed a bill to require their recipients to perform twenty hours of community service per week. Right about the club's social ex-Secretary of State for Employment Laurent Wauquiez, he is preparing to request a return for five hours per week.

Recognizing this, the Head of State asked Marc-Philippe Daubresse, deputy secretary general of the UMP him "to make proposals to improve and upgrade the RSA, including its component insertion. That's why Martin Hirsch, the "father" of the RIAA, wrote to the former Minister for Active Solidarity letter – that Le Figaro was procured – to inform him of his "reform possibilities."He also said "available" to the convention that the UMP will devote to this subject in June and hopes to "be invited".

The former High Commissioner suggests to integrate RSA's earned income tax, "as expensive, ineffective, inequitable and diluted." One option discarded in 2008 that would "refocus budgetary resources on those who need it most." The president of the Civic Service Agency also proposes to revise the "slope" of the RSA (rate of income related to the resumption of employment that recipients are sure to keep). Set at 62%, he suggested the move to 70% for the RSA is "more incentive to work."This option was not selected in 2008 because of its cost ($ 3 billion, twice the budget approved) and the opposition of the Ministry of Employment.

"False good idea"

To increase the number of beneficiaries of the "RSA activity" (extra income for working poor) has reached in two years that 40% of its target (670,000 households), the former boss of Emmaus proposes to pay The RSA once a year. "A person would not file quarterly for 40 euros per month could ask the same time it made its return all the RSA which it could claim the title of the year, or 500 euros "says Martin Hirsch.

It encourages governments to "re-information campaigns, pointing that it is" rare and unusual "that a new benefit does not give rise to regular campaigns.And calls of "systematically provide a single integration contract" for recipients and above all to punish the double rejection. "This will help determine in what cases are the recipients who refuse a contract and helped when it comes to a lack of offers," he justified.

Martin Hirsch also reconsiders the "false good idea" to request a free exchange. "If we want to take five hours per week of activity to any recipient, then they must pay the minimum wage, or about 100 euros net gain", the only assumption that "do not turn your back to frontally work more to earn more .He blames the failure of the last RSA Young (8000 recipient, cons 16,000 expected) at Bercy, who made "a very inflated forecasts, for pushing the eligibility criteria strictest possible" and calls on the government to relax .

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They are the must of French hospitality. Starting this Thursday, they will formally be part of the club of "palaces"! The board responsible for establishing the first official list of hotels embody "excellence in the French" offialisera mileu in its selection of the day.

The challenge is to distinguish among institutions except the 130 5-star hotels that already exist. Fourteen candidates have filed for candidacy. But according to a source familiar with the matter, not everyone will be withheld. In the capital, Bristol, George V, Meurice, Plaza-Athenee, Ritz and Park Hyatt would be in the running. In the provinces, the Negresco in Nice, and Cheval Blanc in Courchevel Cranberries, and the Hotel du Palais in Biarritz, have also postulated.

Conversely, some very prestigious hotels have chosen to duck the first round due to work, like the Eden Roc in Antibes.5 stars like the Fouquet's in Paris did not submit a dossier explaining that appear as a palace might scare away business customers. The Crillon, which has just been sold by the U.S. investment fund Starwood Capital, has not applied, since it requires a heavy renovation.

As newcomers to Paris, starting with the Shangri-La and the Royal Monceau Mandarin Oriental pending this year and the Peninsula in 2012, they did not have access to the competition, requiring more eligibility conditons of … 30 months old.

Applicants under the palace had until December to apply.Have completed two phases of instruction, one led by France Trump to see if they met the "objective" criteria such as size of room, activity for 24 months minimum in case of complete refurbishment of the facility, 30 in case opening, multilingual staff, spa etc..

The second was conducted by a jury of ten members, headed by academician Dominique Fernandez, who was judging criteria "subjective" as the exceptional character of the institution in its history or architecture, speed and permanence of its service, its excellent food and comfort …

After the death of Osama bin Laden, U.S. markets have opened higher on Monday. But the optimism did not last. After booting up 0.48% at 12,872 points, the Dow Jones has returned to equilibrium about 18.30 (-0.02% to 12,839 points), the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost respectively 0, 13% to 1362 points and 0.31% to 2865 points.

The NYSE had ended up slightly vendredi.Sur the entire last week, the Dow Jones gained 2.43%, sailing now at its highest level since May 2008. The Standard & Poor's has made 1.96%, climbing to a new level since June 2008, and the Nasdaq experiencing the highest since December 2000, after rising 1.89% on the week. U.S. indices have been propelled by the quarterly results of companies.Indeed 73% of companies have released better than expected results for the first three months of the year.

On all major exchanges in Asia and Europe, the reaction was positive on Monday after announcing the death of bin Laden. But the effect was short-lived.

Dollar up, oil down

And on the foreign exchange market, the dollar climbed against major currencies. Around 15:30 European currency resumed, however the height against the greenback.: The euro bought 1.4849 dollars against 1.4808 dollars on Friday night. The death of public enemy number one U.S. pushes investors to buy the greenback, especially low in recent weeks because of the decision of the U.S. central bank (Fed) maintain unchanged its policy of very low rates.

Similarly, oil prices, affected by the surge in the greenback, declined Monday.A barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery lost 57 cents to U.S. $ 113.236. Precious metals lose ground again this afternoon, even if less than this morning. The ounce of gold fell to 1546 dollars this morning against a previous record of 1575.79 dollars. It is from 1555 dollars to 15.30.

On the macroeconomic front, construction spending gained momentum in the United States, knowing their strongest growth in 11 months, 1.4%, according to data released Monday by the Commerce Department. In contrast, growth of manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in April, but less than expected, according to the index of industrial purchasing managers released Monday. This index, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), stood at 60.4 in April after already slowed to 61 instant payday loan.2 in March, against 61.4 in February.The 72 analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast an index to 60.0.

Macroeconomic agenda of the rest of the week is particularly busy overseas. The program included investors such as U.S. industrial orders (Tuesday), the PMI service on both sides of the Atlantic (Wednesday), quarterly productivity in the U.S. (Thursday). But the main highlight of the week on the macroeconomic level in the United States is expected Friday with the traditional monthly report on U.S. employment.

Apple on their toes

The side of values, PPR announced on Monday the launch of a friendly takeover of the American Volcom (23.92% to 24.45 dollars) (clothing and accessories for skateboarding), enhanced 516, 1 million euros, which, according to him, "a milestone" for the constitution of his pole "Sports and Lifestyle."The essence of sport and lifestyle center is formed by Puma, majority owned by PPR, which was completed in 2010 a turnover of 2.7 billion euros (+10.6%) and operating profit to 337.8 million euros, up 12.7%.

Always on the side of values, Apple (-0.36% to 348.88 dollars) might react to the announcement of Time which will offer a free edition of its magazine for iPad his paper subscribers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

On its side the oil giant Chevron (-0.70% to 108.67 dollars) has also announced after the close of Wall Street have made a profit in the first quarter of $ 6.2 billion against 4.6 billion a year past. Daily production rose to 2.76 million barrels per day against 2.78 million last year.Chevron also announced the construction of a new manufacturing lubricants in Mississippi to $ 1.4 billion.

For his part, Du Pont De Nemours (-0.25% to 56.65 dollars) has increased the amount of its bid for Danisco to 700 Danish kroner kroner against 665 previously.

Also note, the Wall Street Journal, Facebook's growth is higher than the forecasts made several months ago, the group is about to exceed two billion dollars of gross operating profit (EBITDA) in 2011. Still according to the Wall Street Journal, the benefits of Facebook now increase rapidly enough to justify a valuation of $ 100 billion or more from the perspective of an IPO. Facebook should be placed on the market by early next year.

Each has experienced: it is always extremely difficult to move from average to a respectable level of excellence, whether you are a pianist or a tennis player. The same is true for nations attain the status of "rich country" is not a foregone conclusion. Even when recording a growth of 10% per annum, and for three decades, which has enabled the Chinese to multiply their individual standard of living in a little over a generation.

Economic development is certainly not an exact science, but the trees do not ascend to heaven. Even in the jungle of state capitalism. There is no example in history where the growing disheveled inflected not only from a certain stage.By examining the career of some forty countries since the Second World War, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Kwanho Shin Park and discovered that the expansion slows inexorably past the threshold of 16,740 dollars to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita. Anxious to establish historical comparisons, the three economists have reduced all data in constant currency (dollars at 2005 prices). Their study is published by the NBER (When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China).

This law, the French and their European neighbors have suffered in the early 1970s. In France, 1973 has been the hinge, GDP individual having reached 16,904 dollars. Over the past seven years – the reign of De Gaulle and Pompidou – per capita growth was galloping at a rate of 4.6%.She fell to 2.2% during the seven-year following that of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, a decrease of 2.4% of scheme. The United States had known since 1968 a reversal of the same nature and magnitude slightly higher (2.5%, according to calculations by three economists).

This break in France coincided with the first oil shock, which our countrymen seem to have still not delivered. Since then, it has ceased to lament the state of "crisis". The French have not realized that they had recently experienced a "golden age a quarter century of rapid growth inaugurated by the Marshall Plan and the postwar recovery," said Barry Eichengreen and his two confreres . Fourastie what John called the "Thirty Glorious Years".

China has a number of vulnerabilities

The scenario is in reality always the same: the reconstruction periods are marked by exceptional productivity gains.They do not constitute a sustainable standard. Farmworkers become industrial country imports the new technologies which increase its effectiveness. But once this revenue exhausted, we must innovate and find other vectors of prosperity. Furthermore the threshold of 16,740 dollars, the three economists put forward another concept: things become more difficult when a country obtains a level equivalent to 57% of GDP in the most advanced economy, one that portrays "on the technological frontier "(the United States in this case).

For its part, China still seems quite distant from these two criteria, especially the second (the Chinese GDP was only 19.7% that of the U.S. in 2007). But should it maintain its annual rate of 10%, it would affect the level of fateful 16,740 dollars per capita in 2014. The danger zone is reached in just three years.Barry Eichengreen prognostic so that "a significant slowdown in Chinese growth is imminent."

It is even more positive that China presents to him a number of vulnerabilities, making the course more difficult to cross than others. The observation of the forty countries studied shows that the transition is particularly difficult for a country to an authoritarian political regime, the industrial workforce is over 20% of the workforce and has a weak currency. Korea offers the previous "one centered on manufacturing exports and helped by an undervalued currency, with a consequent sharp fall in its expansion in the 1990s, culminating in the 1997 financial crisis.

Brazil is a land of opportunity

The study envisages a significant shift for China's annual growth would average between 6.1% and 7% over the decade, and would fall another notch (5% to 6.2% between 2021 and 2030 ). Barry Eichengreen believes that "Chinese authorities are convinced that a slowdown will intervene." Beijing seems sincere when he sets a target of 7% annual growth for the five-year plan 2011-2015.

The new emphasis on domestic demand and services, instead of all bet on the industry and export, is designed to circumvent the curse that threatens the country catch up. Many of them never get out of the "middle income trap" (around 16,500 dollars) for lack of a successful transformation.What they think the French have managed to "obtain the status of high-income countries" and since 1973 the GDP per capita has more than doubled. However, this is not the case in Latin America, said Barry Eichengreen. "Brazil is a country of the future and will remain" in the words attributed to General de Gaulle in the 1960s.