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The anxiety begins to rise in the staffs of distributors. Since last May, in response to rising prices in hypermarkets and supermarkets, French households scratch some products of their shopping list. In late February, the central purchasing of hypermarkets and supermarkets had completed, in pain, their traditional annual tariff negotiations with food manufacturers and consumer products. They had had great difficulty in getting the increases they felt were necessary, given the soaring prices of raw materials.

Since March, distributors impact gradually increases on their labels. That month, prices in stores were up 0.67% over February, according to the institute Symphony IRI Group. Since then, a month to month, prices increase in radius each time by 0.50%."The return of inflation is beginning to be felt on the behavior of buyers in supermarkets," says Jacques Dupré, Director of Insight Symphony IRI Group, which analyzes the monthly receipts of all the major surfaces of the Hexagon .

The break in the trend is clear. Of the four months preceding the return of inflation on the shelves between November 2010 and February 2011, sales of food increased by 1.3%. And the next three months, between March and May, the increase slowed to only 0.4%.

Promotional pressure

In April, the phenomenal sales of water, beverages, beer and ice cream, boosted by high temperatures, have allowed supermarkets to record an exceptional increase their volumes, which jumped this month to 4 3% compared to April 2010. But since May, purchases in supermarkets are falling over one year.Month after month, the trend continues. "In July, the decline could even exceed 1%, says Jacques Dupré. Inflation continues to gain momentum. "

The drop in purchases is certainly less intense than in 2008. At the time, soaring raw materials led to an increase of 4.5% of the labels in three months, which had resulted in a decline in overall consumption of around 2% throughout the year, twice as large as that observed in the last three months.

"So far, arbitration is more about quantity than quality, said Jacques Dupré. Rather than falling in line, they buy a little less product. "As in 2008, consumers are tightening their belts.But they give up to afford one or two products "frivolous" (see box) rather than turn to the variety of entry-level or private labels (PLs) for items they value.

Despite the general rise in prices, domestic brands continued to be more resilient than labels distributor, yet less expensive. Until May, growth was consistently higher, thanks to promotions, which have proliferated in the first half.

Promotional pressure from national brands was released in June … and then returned to the private label market share for the first time in eighteen months. The situation remains tense rays than ever, and inflation could thus give a boost to brands.Contrary to what happened three years ago, the hard discount does not benefit from inflation and continues to lose market share.

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After the storm that brought down the CAC 40 over 5%, the Paris Bourse seems unable to stay in the green Thursday. After opening up 2.96% to 3092.16 points, the CAC 40 went back down just before noon and sank below the threshold of 3000 points, already briefly reached Tuesday. Half an hour after the opening up of Wall Street, with two good indicators on employment and housing, the index slope gently went back after plunging 2.40% to 14 hours. He lowered from 0.08% to 3000.60 points to 16 hours.

In Frankfurt, the Dax is in the green at 5647 points, up 0.61%. The FTSE-100 index of London Stock Exchange plays yoyo but is also up 0.82% to 5047 points.

The concerns are far from being dissipated, particularly those relating to the slowdown in the global economy and the issue of sovereign debt on both sides of the Atlantic.Evidence of this tension, gold continues to fly record after record. The precious metal has crossed the threshold of 1800 dollars. It is this Thursday morning in 1790 dollars, after hitting a new record of 1815.50 dollars.

Oil prices also retreated in a market that once again expressed its concerns about future growth and energy demand. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 82.39 dollars, down 50 cents from the previous day.

Bank stocks battered

Among the values ​​of the day include banking, which have been heavily tested yesterday. The Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the stock market regulator, announced that it will monitor developments in the securities sector.Shortly before noon, BNP Paribas (-5.88% to 33.515 euros), and Credit Agricole (-1.51% to 5.981 euros) and plunged into the red after yet open on a rebound.

The title plays yoyo Societe Generale: having lost 14.74% Wednesday, it opened on a rebound of almost 9%.He dived again from 4.13% to 21.265 euros in midday before regroup after the opening of U.S. markets (-0.45% to 22.08 euros to 16 hours).

"The willingness of these attacks is to force the SG to a capital increase, which is the workhorse of some analysts and hedge funds in recent months," said an analyst based in Paris at the agency Reuters. "Their reasoning is that the group does not generate enough capital to cope with the capital ratio of over 9% in 2013." The bank, already shaken in 2008 by the Kerviel affair, only to find the investor confidence after several warnings about its results during the financial crisis.

For its part, the CEO of the bank, Frédéric Oudéa, denounced, in an interview with Le Figaro, "the series of attacks" against the French banking sector "sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, attacked Societe Generale, "he lamented. "We have no fear about our ability to raise capital," he added. SocGen has asked the AMF to investigate the origin of the rumors that have depressed its course Wednesday.

Alcatel-Lucent takes advantage of Cisco's results

Veolia Environnement (4.61% to 10.55 euros) and STMicroelectronics (3.39% to 4.488 euros), especially titles attacked in recent days, return to the field.

In addition, EADS (1.66% to 20.24 euros), the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday it will not achieve its objectives in the United States in 2020 without new acquisitions.

Title Alcatel-Lucent (2.11% to 2.324 euros) rose after the release of quarterly results from Cisco Systems, above the consensus of Wall Street.

L'Oreal (2.29% to 1.73 euros) benefits from the decision by Goldman Sachs, which added its list of preferred European stocks to buy ("pan-Europe conviction buy list").

Saint-Gobain (1.11% to 31.775 euros) has announced the acquisition of Solar Gard, a subsidiary of Belgian group dedicated to Bekaert Specialty Films, as part of its strategy to accelerate its growth through acquisitions.

Maurel & Prom rose 4.22% to 12.35 euros after opening up over 8%. The oil company has reported a surge of 123% of its revenue thanks to increased revenues in Gabon and Nigeria.

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Treasury bills do not suffer from degradation of the note of the United States. Instead, rates remain historically low. U.S. finances are parties to drift, but investors have long known, and such a decision undermines their confidence in the ability of the United States to meet its repayments. "On the contrary, the threat of similar actions in other states has positive points: it encourages the ECB to carry more debt buyer of European public and invites States to precipitate the budgetary consolidation measures, which will strengthen intrinsic quality of government securities, "relativize Patrick Artus, Research Director of Studies and Natixis.

In fact, it is especially risky assets, which suffer from fears of contagion cuts ratings of sovereign debt.Evidenced by the plummeting global stock indexes following the shock announcement Standard & Poor's. Over the past five trading days, the Cac 40 lost almost 8%, and the index companies were affected differently. These are "primarily growth stocks" that have suffered the most, says Patrick Artus, "since the fall of 2400 billion over ten years the U.S. deficit will cost a point of growth the first year." Over the period, it is almost 70 billion euros in market capitalization went up in smoke.The equivalent (almost) the biggest company in France, namely Total!

Veolia has collapsed and literally (almost 30%) in just five sessions, within the scope of the panic that has shaken the markets, but the fall of its course is mainly attributable to the publication last week of very disappointing results, while the group left half of the countries in which it operates payday loan lenders.

For Natixis, "convinced that U.S. growth will remain weak for some time (+1.8% in 2011 and estimated 2.1% in 2012)," the companies directly related to the U.S. economy will remain permanently affected by the stroke of Soft in the U.S..This is especially true of automotive manufacturers and suppliers (Renault, Peugeot, Michelin, etc.). And IT companies (Alcatel-Lucent, CapGemini).

However, the decline in raw materials – oil fell below 80 dollars – which led to the values ​​of the construction (Lafarge, Saint-Gobain), mining or oil (ArcelorMittal, Technip, Vallourec) down in recent sessions, "should not last," said Natixis again: "The demand for commodities does not depend on the U.S. economy, but more and more of the Chinese economy, especially investment in China whose growth is weakly linked to the U.S. cycle and will remain strong. "From that side, the markets have overreacted and clearly.

As for the bank, the reactions were very different depending on the titles, which are differently exposed to the problems of sovereign debt.Societe Generale is one that has suffered most of the bad going on equity markets (down 21.7% of its stock price), while Credit Agricole has sold 13.9%, BNP Paribas, 7, 7% and Natixis, only 2.1%. However, the European banking index, the Stoxx 600 Banks, hit late Tuesday to its lowest level in two years. But overall, the French banks face the storm better than two years ago because they have strengthened their balance sheets.

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If this is not a government program or a setting under the supervision of Italy is like. Friday, Jean-Claude Trichet and his designated successor Mario Draghi sent a joint letter to Silvio Berlusconi stating the conditions set by the ECB to the acquisition of Italian government securities on the secondary market. Conditions detailed binding, behind which one can read the label of the current governor of the Bank of Italy, future boss of the ECB. The letter should have remained secret: the Corriere della Sera reported Monday morning, after the Executive Board of the central bank in the euro area, which has long balked at the reluctance of German and Dutch governors, gave the green light to purchases of securities in Italy and Spain.

Roadmap drastic

The ECB seems to blame the previous plans of Silvio Berlusconi to be inadequate, too general, too spread out over time.As she raises her conditions. First, she asked Silvio Berlusconi to proceed by order, immediately applicable, not Bill (DDL), that Parliament is still time to approve. It then lists the reforms it expects Italy. In terms of privatization, she cites municipal corporations (public transport, roads, electricity supply, with the exception of water which will remain public).

With regard to the Labour Code in force since 1970, the ECB requires to make more flexible the procedures for dismissal and to focus on agreements in companies with sectoral agreements negotiated at the national level. This is a crucial point: Sergio Marchionne, boss of Fiat, continues to denounce the rigidity of hiring and layoffs.

By asking such requirements, the ECB ventures into unfamiliar ground.But it does not matter to the hawks in Frankfurt to fly to the rescue of Rome by putting huge sums into play if Italy does not comply with a roadmap drastically. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel pushed in that direction. In their joint statement on Sunday night, they emphasized that the return of Italy to a balanced budget in 2013 was an important "fundamental" for markets and called for "a rapid implementation and complete" the measures announced Friday by Silvio Berlusconi.

This intervention boosted the opposition: "What we really require the ECB and the international institutions? A government powerless now totally discredited and Trust must at least say what the real situation, "said the press head of the Democratic Party, Pierluigi Bersani.As for the former European Commissioner Mario Monti, he now believes that Italy is governed by a "foreign Podesta."

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The penalty was expected but it still sounds like a shock. In the night from Friday to Saturday, the rating agency Standard and Poor's (S & P) has dared to lower the rating for government debt of the United States, and deprived of their "AAA" for the first time in history . S & P said in a statement it had degraded to the next level this note, the best possible, to bring it to 'AA +'. It also lowered its outlook to "negative", which means that Standard and Poor's believes that the next time the note will change, it will be to be devalued again. The United States were rated "AAA" by S & P since the creation of this agency in 1941.They remain in the other two major agencies, Moody's Dean (since 1917) and Fitch Ratings.

Standard and Poor's, which had warned in April that it was considering lowering, justified its decision with "political risks" to see the country taking insufficient measures against its budget deficit. For her, the political debate on these issues is not up to the problems caused by a debt of more than 14,500 billion. "The plan for balancing the budget on which Congress and the Executive have recently agreed is insufficient compared to what, in our view, would be needed to stabilize the dynamics in the medium term public debt" said S & P, citing the law known as "control the budget" passed Tuesday.

S & P is the second rating agency to downgrade the American note, after the Chinese – less powerful – Dagong.Other – mostly American and French Moody's Fitch – are currently at Triple A.

The U.S. public debt to more than 100% of GDP

The first power of the world is, well, so sure before. The United States and joined Japan, Spain and Ireland have lost that status envied no fax payday loan. The loss of this seal of excellence is expected brutal impact on the financial markets, difficult to imagine right now. But while the financial world is upside down, the risk that markets continue to dive is high. The announcement of S & P comes in effect when the markets were closed for the weekend, closing on both sides of the Atlantic one week black.

China, by far the world's largest creditor United States, found that she had "every right now to require the United States to address their structural problems of debt."Second World holder of U.S. debt, Tokyo assured him that his confidence in the U.S. Treasury and its strategy of purchasing these bonds were unchanged. In France, the Minister of Economy Baroin reiterated his "total confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy."

Two days ago, the U.S. debt has passed a symbolic milestone. Because it exceeded the threshold of 100% of GDP, just after raising the debt ceiling by Congress. The United States saw their public finances sealed by the harsh recession that crossed their economy from late 2007 to mid-2009. Since then, economic growth has returned, but they are not able to restore the health of their public finances. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, they should acknowledge this year, with about 9% of GDP, the highest budget deficit of the G20 countries, except Japan.It is sixteen countries rated "AAA" by Standard and Poor's, four of the G7: Germany, Canada, France and Great Britain.

(With AFP and Reuters)

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In the aftermath of a black day on world financial markets, U.S. equity markets begin this Friday on a stable note. In early trade, the Dow gained 0.03% to 11,387 points, the Nasdaq is 1.01% more frankly to 2582 points and the S & P up 0.82% to 1211 points. The markets resume with the publication of unemployment figures across the Atlantic for the better than expected in July.

Wall Street follows the movement promoted by the European stock exchanges. In Paris, the political mobilization against the bear market in Europe has slowed the drop in European indexes.

The employment figures dictate trend

In this context the assumption of a recession in the U.S. or the world, is today one of the main fears of the markets, the announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month calm spirits on Wall Street.In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment .On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks fast cash online.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

In a market still panicked on issues of U.S. and European debt, he had to look this morning to find values ​​still moving into positive territory. Yet the case of Bic, which is Wednesday morning at the top of the charts in the SBF 120 and values ​​eligible for the SRD, with an increase of 5.27% to 64.74 euros an hour after opening. The reason: the publication of interim results above expectations, at least much of its activity. Good news that restores a little balm in the heart of the operators, cooled from a fortnight in business publications rather disappointing. Demonstrated again this morning the profit warning from Société Générale, in turn affected by the effects of the crisis of the Greek debt.

This is clearly not the case for Bic.The specialist in stationery, lighters and shavers has indeed unveiled Wednesday half-yearly sales up 5.5% (comparable) to 886.1 million euros and an operating profit of 174.9 million euros. An annual increase of 22.4% more than that of revenue, thanks in part to the increase in gross margin and cost savings involved in the restructuring program in 2009.

Offset deliveries of orders for back-classesCes good results are obtained Bic thanks to sales growth markets (+15.3% on a comparable basis) and by the strong performance of its consumer division (stationery, lighters, razors ).The latter, which represents over 85% of its turnover, has in fact increased by 8.8% over the period to 758.8 million euros, supported among others by the good performance in stationery and lighters in Latin America and Asia lighters.

However, in Europe and the United States, stationery grew much lower (about 1.5%), affected by the timing of delivery of orders to return to school. "Distributors delay until the last moment of receipt of goods back to school," explains the release. With the effect a shift in sales from the second to the third quarter. Despite this, the group remains confident for the year-end on this division that made its reputation. For 2011, management believes that growth in this sector will exceed the 5% previously announced for the year.

Advertising products to the penalty

Investors have therefore retained the good news rather than the poor performance of the other activities of Bic, namely advertising and promotional products (Bic APP), which represents 15% of its sales. In the first six months of the year, income from this activity decreased by 10.2% on a comparable basis, affected by "customer service issues, including delivery." In addition, BIC recorded in this division of non-recurring items mainly related to the reorganization of its Italian operations, affecting up to 1.9 million euros operating profit. In the end, Bic APP recorded a loss from operations of 3.5 million euros, against a gain of 1.6 million a year earlier.Bic said however, "confident about the success of the integration plan and return to growth of this branch in 2012."

In the longer term, Bic is also focusing on growing markets for its development. Within a decade, he wants to increase the share of its business that is conducted at over 40% against 29% in 2010. And to address inflationary environment of commodity prices, Bic plans in the coming weeks price adjustments "targeted" on some of its products. A "power-pricing" that would also be useful to offset increased marketing investments to support the brand.

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The world welcomes the U.S. agreement with relief. And sometimes with caution. France, through the voice of the Minister of Economy and the Baroin Budget Valérie Pécresse, on Monday welcomed the compromise that must still be voted in the Senate. "This is great news for the world economies, a very good news for the United States but also for Europe," said the minister.

Baroin for its part related to the Europe Agreement on Greece on Thursday and compromise between Republicans and Democrats: "All that has been implemented for two weeks three weeks, the agreement of the euro area on the issue Greek, the Washington agreement on the question of raising the ceiling of U.S. debt in the right direction. "These agreements" are going in the direction of the reinforcement of global growth, "he said, and they will" reaching consequences for global economy is recovering. "

Earlier in the night, Japan applauded the U.S. agreement. "We welcome the agreement on the U.S. debt and hopefully it will stabilize markets," said Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yukio Edano instant payday loans. The islands observed at the forefront of American debt crisis.It is the second largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, after China.

BlackRock prudent

It is not clear, however, that the announcement of Washington, as expected, calms markets. The largest asset manager worldwide, BlackRock, welcomed the plan cautiously. "The proposed framework for reducing federal spending is a positive step," said the fund in a statement. But "the exact composition and timing of all the spending cuts will determine whether the proposal produces a real and significant reduction of the deficit," he added.

Markets "need to perceive a clear path to deficit reduction to encourage confidence in the U.S. dollar," says BlackRock."This is essential if we are to retain the AAA rating of the United States and encourage long term investment."

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While its main competitor, the German Linde, announced Friday a 14% increase in quarterly profit and revenue of 7.5%, Air Liquide has nothing to be ashamed: the manufacturer of industrial and medical gases Air Liquide published on Monday morning a net profit of 750 million euros (+11%), and annual sales up 9.2% to 7.1 billion euros in the first half of fiscal 2011. The revenue growth was primarily driven by developing economies, which now generate 21% of sales activity "gas services" and where growth was 28%. Revenues in the advanced economies have increased by 7% each.

After the announcement, the stock exchange, Air Liquide shares rise from 1.57% to 97.46 euros in First Prev exchanges in a market (the Cac 40) up 0.98%, driven by the agreement reached with U.S. debt.

Despite an impact of tsunami in Japan and revolts in the Arab world, the operating margin was 16.7%, up 10 basis points over one year Payday advance. Excluding the effect of changes in natural gas prices, the margin improved by 30 basis points. Air Liquide has also reduced costs by 132 million euros, while it wants to cut more than 200 million euros over the year."In this context, and in a normal environment, Air Liquide is confident in its ability to continue in 2011 the steady growth in net profit," said CEO Benoit Potier said in a statement.

A half-year performance that is part of the strategic plan for 2015 presented in December, and expects an average annual increase in sales of 8 to 10%, higher than the expected growth of the market.

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