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In the second of the five-day strike of cabin crew of Air France, the company promises, as before, to ensure 80% of its flights. Even if the unions, who believe that the movement is followed, announced an intensification of the mobilization against the proposed reduction in the number of cabin crew in some planes.

About 200 flights on the 1000 planned were canceled Saturday. "We have given the forecast. Saturday at midday, only 200 passengers 3,000 were in trouble, "noted the direction of the company. Air France has temporarily limited to 100 passengers the ability of its medium-haul flights from Orly to avoid having to put down passengers for lack of a sufficient number of hostesses and stewards. Result: Passengers waited. This strategy and the delays it caused affected customers were exasperated. "It's a nightmare. We have been waiting seven hours.Of all of the day, Air France plans to cancel 14, according to a spokesman for the airport.

Modified or exchanged for free tickets

Without an agreement this week with management on the number and mode of assessment of cabin crew, six of seven unions called the stewards and stewardesses 15,000 to go on strike for the weekend of All Saints, usually of overcrowding, until Wednesday, November 2 included instant payday loan. In 2007, a similar strike, triggered by the same six unions to the same period, had caused major disruptions. Air France was forced several times to review downward its traffic forecast: 90% of flights expected to be provided the day before, this had increased to 60% during the weekend.

The company called to check passengers before they leave for the airport, on the website of the company, the list of flights canceled or delayed. They also know the traffic forecasts by sending an SMS to 63654 with their flight number. The company also points out that the tickets can be changed or exchanged free of charge.

Air France has apologized to its passengers' taken hostage by a strike that has no purpose. " "We negotiated for ten days, day and night, and responded favorably to 90% of union demands for flight attendants." Jean-Cyril Spinetta, who took over the reins of the group a week ago, sent an open letter to the hostesses and stewards, in which he warns against the dangers of such a strike.

A new situation is emerging in the financing of aircraft purchased by the airlines. This is a consequence of the crisis of public debt in Europe, the requirements of the new banking regulations, known as "Basel 3" and the growing importance of Asia in the economy of air transport. The challenge for French banks? Maintain their global leadership in a profession where they excel with a market share of 31%.

For several months, the pressure rises. French banks are caught between access to dollar funding more difficult and more expensive as well as compliance with the new banking criteria, which leads them to reduce the size of their balance sheets by arbitrating between their trades. Over those that involve the preservation of long-term assets in dollars, typically aircraft.Because the dollar is the currency of reference in aeronautics.

The dollar, currency of

Societe Generale announced in mid-October cut its financing by air. BNP Paribas would seek to exchange air assets against dollar assets denominated in other currencies. Markets are concerned. What would the impact of a withdrawal, even partial, of Airbus, of which 17% of deliveries were financed by French banks in the last 18 months? Indeed, everything is played on delivery. This is when the company spends between 65 and 70% of the price of the aircraft ordered several years ago and for which a timetable has been set following the first installment (5 to 10%) paid at the signing the contract.

Not everything has dragged on last night in Brussels. From 20 hours, the heads of state of the 27 EU countries have approved the launch of a large recapitalization of European banks, encrypted by the industry policeman to 106 billion euros. The principle was in fact acknowledged the last Saturday by finance ministers.

106 billion euros. This figure results from the examination of bank balance sheets after taking into account the loss of value to the end of September of sovereign debt Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or Italian, but also gains recorded on their German or British counterparts. On this basis, regulators assessed for each bank the way to go to 9% of regulatory capital ratio ("core tier 1" prudential banking jargon). This objective will be achieved on June 30 at the latest.And the addition is particularly heavy for Greek banks, of course (30 billion euros), but also in Spain (26 billion) and Italy (14.8 billion). In France, the bill is estimated at 8.8 billion, Germany at 5.1 billion.

A new showdown promises

This total was largely anticipated by the market and the banks themselves. However, a new showdown between the industry and promises to the authorities. "We ask banks to recapitalize. Not to cut their balance sheets, "argued a senior Wednesday ahead of the summit. Number of facilities provided to achieve because much of the effort flopped the sails, that is to say, by limiting their activities consume the most capital. But Europe is concerned about the impact of these strategies on the distribution of credit, especially in the east where the industry is largely owned by groups of Western Europe.The Council of the Union has insisted on its vigilance on this point. And regulators have developed their doctrine accordingly. End of June 2012, they calculate the ratio of each bank according to its balance sheet at September 30, 2011 …. It is therefore too late to play on the variable of total assets. Only an increase in capital will reach the famous 9%.

Putting aside the benefits

To avoid making capital increases in market conditions given the state of detestable share price values ​​the industry or, worse, to use the state to bail out the banks who can n ' have only one option: to put their profits in reserve, probably in much higher proportions for use. This means that the shareholders of the banks concerned will receive little or no dividend next year.Politicians hide it just, that sacrifice is almost as an objective.

All has not been lost to the banks. The Council of the EU, the European Banking Authority, promised to lay the foundation for coordinated action to help them take on the market. The sovereign debt crisis cut investors' appetite for foreign bank debts. However, they will raise more than € 600 billion next year. The European Central Bank has opened the floodgates of funding up to a year. But it can do much more as the industry needs stable funding, so many years. Government guarantees could be implemented.

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The UMP deputies know that the growth forecast (1.75%) on which the draft budget for 2012 is revised downwards, and a new train of savings 5-7000000000 necessary, in addition to 11 billion already planned for next year. "The 2012 budget is credible, but it can be denied by a significant slowdown in growth," Analysis Louis Giscard d'Estaing. The Vice-Chairman of the Finance Committee of the Assembly recalls that "the time of the government of Lionel Jospin, it was the logic of the cicada, while in Germany Gerhard Schröder had imposed a cure without reduction of wage restraint working time, in line with the ant. But the wind is coming … "says the deputy of Puy de Dome, paraphrasing the fable of La Fontaine.Vice President of the National Assembly warned the Socialists: "Those who would maintain the idea that there is room for maneuver in the reuse of public spending, as does Francois Hollande, would directly threaten the notation France and our ability to deleverage. "

However, Louis Giscard d'Estaing is convinced that there is still food for thought in the financing of 35 hours. He will file an amendment in the bill funding the Social Security (PLFSS) for further reduce the limit on exemptions from employer contributions on wages at 1.5 times the minimum wage (currently against 1.6). Which would represent just over one billion euros in savings, if the measure comes into force on 1 January. He even suggested to lower the ceiling to 1.4 times the minimum wage in July 2012 to "give companies time to adjust."The UMP also suggests to "a general movement of the plane of the allocations to the operators of the state" by reducing them to 3% in 2012 No teletrak payday loan.

"Do not replace two staff on three"

In this area, Hervé Mariton (UMP, Drôme) also proposes to "ease the regulations that impact cost." Other proposals of the Liberal "not to replace two of three officials" and "examining investments less profitable," particularly in the area of ​​infrastructure. "Do not panic about short-term savings. We will be judged on the strength and seriousness of a savings plan in the long term, "said Mariton. Special Rapporteur of the mission work jobs, Chantal Brunel (UMP, Seine-et-Marne) will propose to leave the tax deduction on home jobs "all leisure activities and relaxation."Isabelle Vasseur (UMP, Aisne), Rapporteur of the Finance Committee on Social Security Financing Bill, will propose this afternoon the establishment of "prevention, source of major savings in health" she assures.

The former chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Jean Arthuis think we need to "reduce the amount of grants to local authorities" and "to lower executive compensation operators of the state." Former budget minister, Dominique Bussereau is more cautious: "We are still on the bone. The revision of public policies (RGPP) was very effective, so that the state is under-Box at the local level, "says he.

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"New austerity measures are not excluded

"The Senate calls for new savings measures

The debt crisis that shook the euro area, the French deep mine. This is for 79% of them, the crisis "the worst" in recent years, according to a poll Ifop for the Journal du Dimanche. Faced with the economic and social situation of France, 53% of respondents said they were "rebels," while 29% are "resigned." A resignation which probably explains why the movement of "outraged" that began in Spain last spring and has spread across Europe and to the United States, failed to France.

The French are indeed very pessimistic. Only 4% of them believe in a crisis within the next six months. Nearly a majority (46%), however, do not expect improvement until 2014. "This survey highlights the malaise of the French," said Frederic Dabi, director of the division of opinion Ifop."For them, this is a serious crisis which they do not see the exit and on which policies can not be weighed." However, they are preparing for 57% of the "painful and difficult measures." They are also willing to make sacrifices, including cutting costs in their "comfort" and in their holiday budget, the study said.

When asked about the causes of the crisis, 52% of French people point the finger at the role of financial markets. Far behind, the government (26%), banks (15%), EU (10%), the French as a whole (6%), emerging (5%) and businesses (1%) are also considered partially responsible for the current crisis. "Paradoxically, while their commitment to the EU is often tenuous, the French for more Europe," Frederic Dabi analysis.As proof, they say they support the creation of a European Ministry of Economy.

Theme of the presidential election

As European leaders gather in Brussels on Sunday for a coordinated response to the crisis, the French have already an idea of ​​what the state could do 63% of them believe the government should take an interest in banks, either by becoming the majority shareholder of the establishment or nationalization. Despite their concern, 23% of respondents would prefer the state to intervene simply abstain. Maybe they think that the French economy can only suffer, as the government prepares to revise downwards its growth forecast for 2012 still set at 1.75%."Part of the public continues to believe that when dealing with Greece, it does not deal with French," says Pierre Giacometti, advisor opinion of the President of the Republic, in the columns of world.

Yet a few months before the presidential election, the crisis in the euro area will be the theme of the campaign. Nicolas Sarkozy will speak on the subject on television next Thursday, the day after the second EU summit is to say, once firm decisions have been taken. A key event with the French, while the popularity of the president is at half mast. "Even if the credits of some courage, nothing will be counted as long as there is a lack of visibility on the crisis," Pierre Giacometti analysis in Le Monde.

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"The" outraged "French struggle to mobilize

"Crisis summit in Brussels to save the euro

"GRAPHICS – The crisis of the euro, or the history of contagion

While central bankers of the euro zone must meet this weekend to try to establish the foundation that will emerge from the crisis, Standard & Poor's already considering the worst. The rating agency has in fact simulated for several European countries, a "worst case scenario" based on a relapse into recession. If such an economic downturn were to occur, what the IMF is already considering, then the rating agency's estimation, several notes of sovereign debt could then be degraded, including that of France. She stresses, however, that "no degradation or put under surveillance of AAA French is considered for the moment."

Accuracy that allows Standard & Poor's to stand out from its counterpart Moody's, which launched a few days ago warning of a possible future revision of his opinion of the French debt.Fitch has also distanced itself from Moody's, ensuring that it does not intend to degrade the rating of France.

Without growth, no AAA rating for France

S & P has built these "stress tests" on sovereign debt from two batteries of different assumptions. In the first scenario, it assessed the impact of a relapse into recession. In this case, France could see its rating downgraded from AAA to AA +, because of lower tax revenues.

In the second scenario, which provides a relapse into recession coupled with a shock on interest rates, then the note of the French sovereign debt could be lowered by two notches.The notes of banking groups could also be revised.

"The soaring deficits and the recapitalization of banks will weigh heavily on the indebtedness of countries in the euro area," said the head of credit analysis in Paris, adding that "the credit quality of the countries in the euro area will thus be deeply damaged. " The rating agency also said it will adjust its ratings depending on the extent of the downturn on the Old Continent.

For now, the assumption of a recession in the countries of the euro area is not the scenario preferred by S & P, which focuses on growth of between 1% and 1.5% on average for 2012. This is not the case of Fitch."The intensification of the crisis in Italy, Spain and other countries in the euro area under pressure, is expected to generate a recession," says David Riley, head of credit ratings of sovereign debt at Fitch.

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"The rating agencies accused of aggravating the crisis

"Moody's casts a shadow on the AAA rating of France

29.9 billion euros. This is the minimum cost per year, calculated by the Institute of the company, the sixteen main proposals of the socialist program and François Hollande for the presidency in 2012.

Measures François Hollande

The Institute has calculated the company eight measures developed by the Socialist candidate in the primary. First, the creation of 12,000 teaching positions per year, or 60,000 on the five-year term. This would cost 360 million euros per year, cumulative $ 1.8 billion in 2017. "These new posts create an implicit debt to the State, which undertakes to pay the pensions of these agents when they reach retirement age," says the Institute. The rating is saltier contracts for generation, exempting charges for three years as a young recruit companies while maintaining a senior job.This measure, the five-year cumulative, burden on public finances from 30.5 to 33 billion.

Another strong measure: the extension of the RSA under 25 years of activity without preconditions. The Enterprise Institute estimates that 120,000 to 200,000 young people could be affected, which would represent an annual cost of 528 to 876,000,000. With "a serious risk of imprisonment in a youth inactivity trap and a significant risk of fraud", the RSA representative "70% of the money diverted to family allowance." The Institute also estimated the cost of the massive development of renewable energy and reducing from 75 to 50% of the nuclear power generation by 2025. The bill? 10.9 billion a year.If this effort can reduce French imports of energy, it will be "on the other hand a negative effect on the purchasing power of households, through the rising cost of energy bills," warns the IDE.

The measures of the Socialist Party

Winner of the primary, Francois Hollande has not yet specified what action the program he intended to resume the PS paperless payday loans. The Institute has calculated the company in the main. The establishment of a public early childhood, a key measure of the project would cost between 4.5 and 5 billion per year. Half the budget of the justice! The bulk of the bill would come from the creation of 360,000 childcare places (3.8 billion per year … just by operating costs), welcoming children from 2 years to kindergarten cost him, by 720 million year.Much controversy as the assistant accused of favoring the creation of a study allowance for trainees is paradoxically less expensive. The Institute's $ 1.3 billion per year. The reason? This new allowance would replace other aid, and especially young people concerned only with limited resources. The bill would particularly high, however (9.6 billion per year), if the allowance was extended to all students, warns the Institute.

In a more traditional vein, the PS promotes the appreciation of the disabled adult allowance (AAH) and better care for older people, through the personal autonomy allowance (APA).According to the Institute, which takes the hypothesis of a revaluation of these allowances by 20% over five years, the AAH would cost $ 1.7 to $ 1.9 billion a year more, and the APA, 1, 5-2100000000.

Cell quantification of presidential projects, implemented by the Institute of the company, will now address the evaluation of the revenue side of the PS program. The question is whether Francois Hollande planned 30 billion of resources to balance its balance sheet. Last outstanding issue: the institute did not look back on the pension reform, suggested by the PS but never clearly put on the table by François Hollande. If this were the case, the encryption would rise much faster.

"DOCUMENT – The costing of proposals of the socialist project

Moody's brandishing the sword of Damocles. The rating agency, which last week confirmed the AAA rating of the French debt, is now planning to revise its position on the "stable" outlook for this post. "Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and evaluate this perspective in the light of progress made by the government to implement the measures announced to reduce the budget deficit," she says in a statement.

If the prospect should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely lower the rating over the medium term, most often at a maturity of three to twelve months.And France would become the new big country, after the United States to lose its prestigious rating that allows it to borrow on the current market conditions very favorable.

A budget supervision

In reaching its decision, Moody's analyze the ability of the French government to meet its budget commitments. She stressed that the financial strength of the French government "has weakened since the economic and financial crisis worldwide has led to a deterioration in its debt ratios, which are now among the lowest in AAA." In addition, "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months, such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase significant commitments that must support the country's budget. "The remark came just after the adoption by the members of the guarantees provided by the French in the process of dismantling the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia payday loans for bad credit.

But Moody's does not forget to mention the strengths of the country where the government should build, "the large scale of its economy, high productivity, wide diversification, experience, innovation and a savings companies with high a moderate increase in financial liabilities of households and businesses. "These elements provide" a great capacity for shock absorption by France, as demonstrated by the strength of the demand during the global crisis, "reminds the statement.

France "will do everything possible" to keep the AAA

The rating agency said that the review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet a decision on the rating of the country.

But after this warning, the marathon budget to the Assembly for consideration of the budget 2012, which begins on Tuesday, should be closely watched.On France 2 last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon warned it would take "new measures" austerity if France did not record a "minimal growth of 1.5%" in 2012, as the draft budget is "built on a projected 1.75% growth, but it works with a minimal growth of 1.5%."

Already, Tuesday morning, the Minister of Economy, Baroin, indicates that the growth forecast for 2012 is adopted "probably too high." He promised that France "will do everything possible" to maintain its excellent rating.

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"France presents its budget discipline

"The rating agencies accused of aggravating the crisis

Three million voters to the polls Thursday. This is not the third round of the socialist primary elections but in the professional civil service and state hospital. This election is both new and crucial for trade unions. Unpublished, so far as officials voted on different dates, department by department. Under agreements signed in 2008 Bercy between the government and six of the eight federations officials, this group deadlines must solemnize the event and end a kind of permanent election administration

He still suffers to this first edition of exceptions.The officers decentralized government (prefectures) just voted in 2010 after the reorganization of their services; territorial officials will be "aligned" in 2014, which will match the designation of their representatives with election of municipal councils, general and regional officials finally France Telecom will vote Nov. 22 … as well as those of the Department of Justice, after a last minute postponement of the delivery of ballots and professions of faith having made the most complete mess. Also new: the hundreds of thousands of contractors have the right to participate. Finally, the electronic vote is for the million polio Education.

Crucial deadline

If the vote is also crucial is that it will not only unions to gauge.Now, only those organizations that received the most votes will negotiate and sign agreements, both local (with the hospital director, the prefect …) and national (with "their" or the Minister of Public Service for subjects common to all directors). In that game, the CFTC or the CFE-CGC will play their survival in many instances of 5700 to renew check cash advance. The "big" unions will also receive a premium on how they are granted. They are mostly human, that is to say agents paid by the state or the hospital, but devoting all or part of their time to unionism (our editions of September 29).

Difficult to anticipate the results.Of Education in Ecology, Interior Economy, workers speak out more on issues and candidates in their own department or at their service, as a national discourse – discourse on which organizations found it difficult to differentiate. Certainly, FP campaigned on the "case of the public service", the CFDT has focused on the working conditions of workers, Bernard Thibault has been calling for more political "use the ballot CGT" to "deliver signs to the government. " But these are all ways to approach the same themes: policy review (RGPP), elimination of 150,000 jobs during the five-year term in the state civil service, late general wage increases, stricter rules on pensions 2010. Many reasons for discontent that should benefit most unions 'hard', as Solidarity, the CGT and the FSU.

But the mobilization failed when the pension reform, and made to flop back against the rigors. The previous elections were successful in the CFDT and UNSA, reformists, who could also benefit from the arrival of the contract in the electorate. And some of the most disgruntled employees could wait for the presidential and legislative elections in 2012 to settle their accounts. Where the other unknown: participation, far closer than two-thirds, will continue she?

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"Redistribution between public service unions

• Incidents in Rome

Tens of thousands of demonstrators, inspired by the "outrage" of Wall Street and Spain, marched on Saturday in Rome, the city had been cordoned off by police. "One solution, the Revolution!", "We are not property in the hands of bankers," could be read on the signs of the protesters payday loans for bad credit.

In Rome, several cars were torched. Photo credits: ALBERTO PIZZOLI / AFP