Sundial of world news

Like its previous meeting, the hectic day ahead of the Paris markets. After opening sharply lower (-1.28%), the CAC 40 is pressed into the green, gaining 0.59% to 2911.87 points. In the morning, Moody's announced degradation by Moody's debt to Societe Generale and Credit Agricole. BNP Paribas, meanwhile, is kept under negative watch by rating agency. The agency kept under review with negative implications the long-term rating and deposits "Aa2". The uncertainty is still required on other European financial centers: the Frankfurt Dax loose 1.13% to 5131.48 points, the Madrid Stock Exchange lost 0.73% to 7777.3 points, the FTSE Milan Mib down 2.19% at 13,571 points, and the London FTSE-100 down 0.31% to 5157.85 points.

"This is a meeting of all the dangers that will open.The news of banks is particularly rich and the market will excuse the slightest spark to plummet again, "said one Paris-based analyst who requested anonymity told AFP. For his part, Christian Noyer judge that the situation of these banks is not likely to deteriorate further.On RTL, the governor of the Banque de France as well as Judge Moody's announcement is "a relatively good news", "French banks maintain an excellent rating and have the same level as the major European banks." It is the even Jean Leonetti: French Minister for European Affairs estimates that French banks are not in danger, considering the speculation responsible for the "excitement" today.

Beijing expected at the turn of the Italian debt

Moreover, markets are awaiting a decision from Beijing to buy-or-no Italian sovereign debt, "China will continue to increase its investments in Europe," said Premier Wen Jiabao, the opening of "Summer Forum" Davos in Dalian (north-east) on Wednesday.But he is hopeful that the leaders of major European countries consider their relationship with courage to China a strategic point of view. "

Another new fueling hopes of a crisis: the five emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) should discuss next week the opportunity to help the European Union by increasing their holdings of bonds denominated in euros.

Still on the debt of Athens, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel hold a conference call tonight to find a solution to the crisis. The meeting comes as fears or rumors speak out about the bankruptcy of Greece.After having set fire to the powder Monday citing the possibility of a default in Athens, Germany has tried to calm things down Tuesday by stressing, in the words of Chancellor Angela Merkel, that everything was done to prevent a collapse of Greece.

The euro declined against the dollar

On the macroeconomic front, the figures for industrial production in the euro area are expected. In Britain, unemployment figures for August will also be published.

United States, who saw their deficit increase again this summer, the figures for retail sales and producer prices for August will be announced early afternoon.Like stocks and sales of businesses, as well as the weekly inventory of crude oil guaranteed high risk personal loans.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was down again this morning against the greenback at 1.3637 dollars, against 1.3682 dollars in New York the day before. The single currency also weakened against the yen at 104.81 yen against 105.19 yen yesterday in New York. The yen was also stable against the dollar at 76.86 yen to the dollar against 76.88 the previous day.

Oil prices were also down Wednesday, as markets always worried about the debt crisis in the eurozone and a possible bankruptcy of Greece, analysts said. In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October lost 71 cents to 89.50 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 9 cents to 111.80 dollars."With the danger hovering over the Greek market, prices are highly volatile, very nervous," said Nick Trevethan, commodities analyst at ANZ Research in Singapore.

Values ​​to follow

• Banking

Following the deterioration of Moody, the banking sector should be particularly under the spotlight for this session, with the front line Societe Generale (-2.09% to 17.52 euros) and Credit Agricole (3.14% to 5.31 euros). Maintained under negative watch, BNP Paribas (-3.64% to 26.98 euros) also said Tuesday it had asked the AMF to open an investigation after information on the liquidity of the bank published in the Wall Street Journal.In addition, BNP Paribas will reduce the size of its balance sheet of about 10% by the end of 2012 and expects to achieve a capital adequacy ratio of 9% under the new banking regulations of Basel III soon 1 January 2013, the French bank said in a presentation document. Societe Generale and Credit Agricole.

• Areva (-1.90% to 20.60 euros)

EDF prepares to place an order for more than one billion euros in the nuclear group Areva for the purchase of 32 steam generators, Le Figaro said on Wednesday.The choice of Areva will be endorsed on Sept. 28 by the Board of Directors of the electrician needs to change 32 of its 44 steam generators in its power to 1300 MW.

• Renault (-0.14% to 24.81 euros)

The manufacturer wants to improve its stock market value and change the structure of the alliance with Nissan is not the main lever to get there, told Reuters the CEO of Renault, Carlos Ghosn, the car show in Frankfurt. He also said the group looked for ways to adjust the structure of the Renault-Nissan.

• Vinci (0.47% to 31.81 euros)

The group won a contract worth 108 million euros for the construction of systems of wastewater treatment in the Dominican Republic.

• CNP Assurances (0.44% to 10.29 euros)

The Standard & Poor's said Tuesday night that confirmed the rating of "AA-" from the French insurer.

• Club Med (2.66% to 12.15 euros)

The leisure group has published on Wednesday sales down slightly in the third quarter, its activity has been particularly impacted on travel to Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, against the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil. Turnover fell by 1.9% in third quarter (-0.3% at constant currency) to 323 million euros.

The subject is no longer taboo. According to information of the German weekly Der Spiegel revealed this Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble would seriously consider bankruptcy of Athens, which could result in a departure from the country of the euro. While this information was then "denied by Germany," according to the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, it comes as markets are increasingly skeptical about a rescue of Greece, whose economy continues to worse. To this must be added the recent publications of economists, who now publish the "fictions" about the abandonment of the euro in Athens.

Natixis economist Patrick Artus has decrypted this scenario in an analysis published Monday.Taking into account the levels of debt, public deficits and outside Greece, he felt that Athens should depreciate its currency by 55% to balance its accounts. For now, the country will wipe a deep recession "for the next 18 months." It is characterized by a drop in growth and "a sharp decline in purchasing power" due to inflation, a consequence of the devaluation ("with a surge in import prices by about 30%" ) and monetization of public debt as the deficit persists. Similarly, the bank UBS in a note published evoked early September at a cost of 9,500 to 11,500 euros per person the first year of a release of the European currency.

A scenario "imaginable" and "sustainable"

According to Patrick Artus, this bad patch should then be completed at the end of "two or three years," with a resumption of growth.But for Europe, the bill would be salty, since leaving the euro, Greece should convert its debt in its new currency. Which would cost banks and institutional investors in the euro area some 166 billion euros, according to the devaluation held by Natixis.

An output of the euro remains of Athens "imaginable" and "sustainable", argues Patrick Artus. However, "[he] would not attempt the coup," he insists, for fear that the markets get the idea that other countries in difficulty, in turn, leave the single currency. With online focus, Italy and Spain (under perfusion of the ECB through a program to purchase obligation), the output of the euro is, this time, "not at all imaginable, "given the size of their economies.

Public expenditure or fiscal austerity?

For the economist, only a policy of renewed growth in Greece would head out of the water."We must stop this hard to Athens on the reduction of the deficit, he loses his temper. We are killing the country. Instead of giving him three years to reduce its deficit, which gives him six, and that helps companies to find the path of growth and competitiveness. "

A view shared by economist Nouriel Roubini, calling to reactivate the lever of public spending on pain of falling into a "Great Depression". Tance but Jürgen Stark, the former chief economist of the ECB, for whom "a fiscal stimulus would only increase the level of debt and would therefore only increase those risks further." Whatever decision the euro area, it will in all cases act quickly to prevent the "taboo" from turning into disasters scenarios.

RATP talk about an incentive for training. The unions see it as an attempt to affect the right to strike. According to them, the Paris Transport Authority plans to propose an annual premium of 1,200 euros (100 euros per month) to executives who volunteer to attend regular training and maintain their qualification of driver. "At the RATP, the operating framework is formed, has always been to run trains and buses with passengers. The training concludes with obtaining driver's licenses and requires maintenance, "says the authority. A training effort that the RATP wants to encourage and validate the allocation of a premium.Officially, there is no question of getting managers and trained in the cockpit, but only "to formalize a useful practice to social cohesion and understanding of the complex rules of railway operations," says RATP, which states that it is for the time that a project to be discussed, and will apply only to volunteers.

"On behalf of the Ethics and danger

Arguments that jump unions, especially the South who deplores the lack of response from other unions. Jean-Christophe Delprat following the record for the organization is still furious. "The creation of the premium is included in a document entitled" contribution in terms of predictability. " This plan is implemented in the event of a strike, "said Steward.For him, it is clear that the RATP will be given to its executives a new rating, rewarded 100 euros per month, and use cases of social conflict to break the strike. As the project progresses, SOUTH says the discussion stage must already be exceeded according to his information as "84 frames, about 150 volunteers expected by management, are currently in training Online payday loans."

Beyond the reservations expressed in terms of ethics and how to proceed in the company, the union warns of potential danger. "I do not recommend users to get on a train driven by a non-accustomed to driving metros and RER, which is more one day strike in which many users are on the docks," warns the delegate.However, it is unlikely that this warning benevolent comforts travelers stranded at the station during the next strike.

"Clumsiness managerial"

He also noted that the managerial level, "it's pretty awkward." If he does not doubt the success of the measure with executives who can "more money make progress by volunteering," he warns that "relations may be strained between the manager and drivers when they know he broke the strike. " The trade unionist said to illustrate that none of the executives who agreed to drive the RER during the strike of December 2009 is now in the position he then occupied. A word …

"It's a funny way to start the social return," he says.Jean-Christophe Delprat even sees a signal of bad omens, "if management is beginning to organize themselves to deal with the strike is that it anticipates social conflict. One can imagine for example that it intends to return soon to the agreements on the reduction of working time. "

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The U.S. stock markets may well wake up so brutally that they fell asleep. Shortly before their opening on Tuesday, the markets were indeed approached up slightly after the day gleaned 0.34% for the Dow and 0.15% for the Nasdaq. The index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.66% to 1141.90 points and 2076.50 points to 1.50%. The Dow Jones was waiting for his part in an initial advance of 1.41% to 11,000 points.

New home sales for the month of July in the United States are known to 16 hours. They are expected at 310,000 according to a consensus of analysts against 312,000 previously. This will be the only macroeconomic indicator on the agenda Tuesday.If others will be announced in the coming days, investor caution, but market volatility, however, should remain in force throughout the week until Friday.

That day, in fact, speak the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. Speculation is rife, some still hoping that it will decide a third monetary easing to support the U.S. economy. Will also be unveiled for the second estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter.

Banks and investment funds turbulent agitated

As for values, it will be interesting to see if the securities of the banking sector managed to recover. The meeting this Monday night has been very rough in New York, the indices have again been a roller coaster free 3-in-1 credit report.If technology stocks have bounced back, supported by investors looking for bargains, banks have suffered greatly, however. These are the titles of the financial sector that weighed most heavily on the DJIA. Bank of America has yielded 7.9% on rumors of capital increases.

News is expanded on the side of investment funds. The investment fund Cerberus and its partner Chatham Lodging Trust and have informed the United States real estate company Innkeepers Trust (Marriott franchise) they did not buy the walls of 64 of its hotels in the United States. The transaction, amounting to $ 1.1 billion, was announced in May.

The investment fund Jana Partners in New York and the pension fund Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, shareholders of the publisher McGraw-Hill, for their part, state recommend a separation of the group.The two investors, who had announced in early August have acquired a total of 5.2% of the capital, advocated in a paper presented to the authority of the U.S. equity markets (SEC) that the group split its divisions Education, Information and Media and stock index Standard & Poor's.

Finally, on the front of mergers over the world stock markets, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) approved on Tuesday the merger of NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Börse, which should give birth to the first exchange operator world.

How do you explain the economic slowdown in recent months and the downward revisions to growth prospects?

More than a brake unexpectedly in the economy, we see a reversal of perception. The latter is even more brutal than the general opinion was, in my view, tainted with excessive optimism. Then it is difficult to know what, the political farce about debt in Washington, the loss of the AAA American or poor statistics justified the change of outlook on the economy.

The publication of poor growth in the second quarter in the U.S. and the downward revision of the statistics of activity since 2008, have changed the vision of recovery.We start from lower than initial estimates, and we go up the slope much more slowly than expected.

We also witnessed a particularly brutal realization that the inflationary between autumn 2010 and spring 2011 was a major blow to the head of consumers. With a depressed job market and debt strategy, it was not much more to demand falters significantly.

Do you believe in a scenario back in recession?

The situation is much more fragile than earlier this year. The risk of a recession back to a horizon of six months has increased considerably paydayloans. In my view, two scenarios-slow growth or recession-are as likely to occur. The first scenario would lead to growth of only 2% in the U.S. and 1% in Europe, below the trend in previous upturns.The fault mainly mass unemployment. As for the recession, it could happen if everyone is convinced it is inevitable. Given the current environment, the market may in fact remain in panic mode, accumulating indiscriminate bad news one after the other.

Some economists raise the specter of the 2008 crisis …

In response to the bankruptcy of Lehmann, banks no longer wanted to lend to each other, freezing, and the global economy for six months. We're not there. Of course, we see signs of stress in the interbank market, but they have nothing to do with the situation three years ago. At the time, the Fed has provided up to $ 600 billion to other central banks to provide liquidity in dollars. Currently, the hotline is used up to 200 million.

In a recession, states will they try to revive the economy?

Western countries have largely emptied their cartridge: operating margins are much narrower. Any potential action, if it increases the debt carries with it much more likely than before.

Outside the coffee dock, near the Gare de l'Est in Paris, the formula breakfast at 7 euros. At this rate, you are entitled to two slices of bread, a croissant or pain au chocolat, orange juice and a hot drink. Marcel Bénezet not sell a dozen a day, when he easily achieves 80 seats daily.

"In France, the breakfast is just 2% of sales of cafés, bars and eateries, says the owner of the establishment, also president of cafes, bars and brasseries in the union Synhorcat. But for one short year, the market moves a little. We draw some of the clientele of hotels.More and more business appointments are also around a working breakfast between 8 o'clock and 10 o'clock. "

"Not very profitable"

Praised by business travelers, the Plaza Athénée, a Parisian palace, carries 3 million in sales a year with his breakfast, including 1.6 million in the dining room of Alain Ducasse, where 60% of the clientele has not spent the night at the hotel. A single espresso is charged 8 euros. "The average price is 50 euros per person. All patrons of the CAC 40 are there, welcomes François Delahaye, the owner of the Plaza Athénée. Breakfast loyalty. But it is not very profitable, because payroll costs as much as we noon, when the bill is four times lower. "

Breakfast remains a difficult market for restaurateurs.The French are indeed more likely to take home the Anglo-Saxons, and they have less appetite.

McDonald's France, the breakfast is less than 1% of sales. "Unlike the British, Germans and Dutch, the French are not ready to leave in the morning for their breakfast, says Isabelle Kuster, Vice President of Operations in France and Southern Europe at McDonald's. Many are content with a coffee and stay hungry until noon.To attract them, we must offer them what they prefer: an espresso and toast. "As a result, McDonald's, which sells its formula with American breakfast (pancakes and Egg McMuffin) than 250 McDonald's where the demand warrants, innovates by launching September 26th in its 130 McCafe an offer adapted to the habits of the French, with small black and baguette spread with butter and jam.

"France is the only country where the espresso and croissants topped sales in the morning," insists a spokesman for Starbucks. The American chain attracts a customer in France to 60% and 40% of local tourists. In the morning, only 30% of customers use their on-site order. "But in France, we carry a large portion of our sales between 8 am and noon, when the Germans and Spaniards are more in the afternoon," said the spokesman for Starbucks.

If this is not a government program or a setting under the supervision of Italy is like. Friday, Jean-Claude Trichet and his designated successor Mario Draghi sent a joint letter to Silvio Berlusconi stating the conditions set by the ECB to the acquisition of Italian government securities on the secondary market. Conditions detailed binding, behind which one can read the label of the current governor of the Bank of Italy, future boss of the ECB. The letter should have remained secret: the Corriere della Sera reported Monday morning, after the Executive Board of the central bank in the euro area, which has long balked at the reluctance of German and Dutch governors, gave the green light to purchases of securities in Italy and Spain.

Roadmap drastic

The ECB seems to blame the previous plans of Silvio Berlusconi to be inadequate, too general, too spread out over time.As she raises her conditions. First, she asked Silvio Berlusconi to proceed by order, immediately applicable, not Bill (DDL), that Parliament is still time to approve. It then lists the reforms it expects Italy. In terms of privatization, she cites municipal corporations (public transport, roads, electricity supply, with the exception of water which will remain public).

With regard to the Labour Code in force since 1970, the ECB requires to make more flexible the procedures for dismissal and to focus on agreements in companies with sectoral agreements negotiated at the national level. This is a crucial point: Sergio Marchionne, boss of Fiat, continues to denounce the rigidity of hiring and layoffs.

By asking such requirements, the ECB ventures into unfamiliar ground.But it does not matter to the hawks in Frankfurt to fly to the rescue of Rome by putting huge sums into play if Italy does not comply with a roadmap drastically. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel pushed in that direction. In their joint statement on Sunday night, they emphasized that the return of Italy to a balanced budget in 2013 was an important "fundamental" for markets and called for "a rapid implementation and complete" the measures announced Friday by Silvio Berlusconi.

This intervention boosted the opposition: "What we really require the ECB and the international institutions? A government powerless now totally discredited and Trust must at least say what the real situation, "said the press head of the Democratic Party, Pierluigi Bersani.As for the former European Commissioner Mario Monti, he now believes that Italy is governed by a "foreign Podesta."

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While its main competitor, the German Linde, announced Friday a 14% increase in quarterly profit and revenue of 7.5%, Air Liquide has nothing to be ashamed: the manufacturer of industrial and medical gases Air Liquide published on Monday morning a net profit of 750 million euros (+11%), and annual sales up 9.2% to 7.1 billion euros in the first half of fiscal 2011. The revenue growth was primarily driven by developing economies, which now generate 21% of sales activity "gas services" and where growth was 28%. Revenues in the advanced economies have increased by 7% each.

After the announcement, the stock exchange, Air Liquide shares rise from 1.57% to 97.46 euros in First Prev exchanges in a market (the Cac 40) up 0.98%, driven by the agreement reached with U.S. debt.

Despite an impact of tsunami in Japan and revolts in the Arab world, the operating margin was 16.7%, up 10 basis points over one year Payday advance. Excluding the effect of changes in natural gas prices, the margin improved by 30 basis points. Air Liquide has also reduced costs by 132 million euros, while it wants to cut more than 200 million euros over the year."In this context, and in a normal environment, Air Liquide is confident in its ability to continue in 2011 the steady growth in net profit," said CEO Benoit Potier said in a statement.

A half-year performance that is part of the strategic plan for 2015 presented in December, and expects an average annual increase in sales of 8 to 10%, higher than the expected growth of the market.

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PSA Peugeot Citroën can overcome the disaster in the first half Japanese. The first French car maker reported Wednesday a net profit after minority interests up 18.5% to 806 million euros in the first half. Revenues rose 9.7% to 31.1 billion euros, driven by sales outside Europe, while trading profit rose 1.8% to 1.16 billion. The agreement gave a turnover of 30.52 billion euros and a net operating income of 1.15 billion.

The effect of the disaster that hit Japan in March was still represented 147 million euros for PSA in the first half. Excluding this impact, operating income would have emerged an increase of 14.7%."In an environment unfavorable market declines of the group in Europe, higher raw material prices and disruptions caused by the disaster in Japan, the company posted a robust performance. This context reinforces the relevance of our strategy to move upmarket Peugeot and Citroen, globalization and improving operational performance, "said Philippe Varin, CEO of PSA, in a statement.

Disturbances yet to come

The negative effects of the disaster of March 11 should not disappear in the second half."In Japan we have had negative effects and we continue to have negative effects because there are a number of components that are in short supply, and force us to change our product offering and, thus, to have a dialogue with our customers a little more complicated, "said Frédéric Saint-Geours, CFO of PSA, during a teleconference.

The problems in Japan, combined with rising commodity prices, should have a negative impact stronger than expected second quarter. "The environment should deteriorate further € 300 million compared to previous estimates," says the group. Degradation that will fail to fully offset by productivity gains and income derived from its performance plan, he warns.

Despite this difficult environment, PSA confirms its target of an increase in profit from recurring operations throughout the year. The supplier Faurecia, which still holds PSA 57.4% stake, has also raised its 2011 targets on Tuesday after a first half marked by strong growth in all regions of the world.

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The ACOSS, the umbrella organization responsible for collecting Urssaf social security contributions from businesses, released its annual report. The balance sheet shows a 10% increase in the amounts recovered through adjustments made during the year 2010. More than one billion euros (1.023 billion) have been recovered from the companies.

Black labor, professional fees undeclared exemptions from incorrect, contribution rates are the cause erroneous adjustments. Pierre Burban, president of ACOSS, questioned by the quotidienLes Echos, is however clear that this increase does not mean that companies have defrauded more. "If amounts are recovered record to fund Social Security is that the controls are more effective," says he.

Undeclared work is the priority

Last year, the 1550 inspectors and 220 inspectors have examined past 43 billion euros in contributions, a total of more than 260 companies were inspected milliards.37.000. The organization's priority is the fight against undeclared work. This resulted in adjustments of 185 million euros, or 42% more than in 2009, and three times more than five years ago payday loan. In this mission, the Urssaf are supported by the Labour Inspectorate, the tax authorities, police, gendarmerie and customs. And since 2009, the tools available to collectors contributions have expanded. The Urssaf can now cancel enjoyed exemptions from a company caught in the act of undeclared work. They can also apply standard adjustments.An arsenal that has helped raise 39 million euros in 2010.

In addition to the black, the adjustments involved in the errors and abuses of exemptions on low wages overwhelmingly, but also overtime, in the free zones. In almost half of cases, adjustments are made for the company … because the annual report also states that 214 million euros of overpayment were made to businesses.

According to the report, the amount of adjustments should continue to grow in 2011. The Urssaf have indeed received instructions from the Ministry of Labour: at least 190 million euros this year will be recovered only for adjustments related to illegal work.

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