Sundial of world news

The new president, Francois Hollande, he will see in the figures released Thursday one more reason to fight to include a growth component in the European priorities? He will find anyway confirmation that we will have to roll up their sleeves for the activity to return to France.

The Banque de France (BDF) has announced a forecast of zero growth of the economy in the second quarter 2012 – INSEE, it provides a small rebound in the spring, 0.2%. The BDF had previously announced a steady growth for the first quarter. That is to say that the French might be sluggish activity in the first six months of the year.

The unknown Greek

To quote the head of its program, Michel Sapin, a few days ago, Francois Hollande will have no state of grace on the economic front! The latter based his economic program on a growth forecast of 0.5% this year (followed by 1.7% next year and 2% in 2014 and 2% to 2.5% thereafter until 2017 ). A hypothesis that remains credible, unless the Greek turbulence does just weaken the entire euro zone.

In tests conducted by the Banque de France, the prospects in the services today are estimated by "slight erosion". As for industry, they indicate that the order books do not evolve and are also counting on "a slight decline in activity for the coming months easy payday loans."

The National Institute of Statistics, parallel, published a study that confirms this gloom. In March, the production of the entire industry declined (-0.9%), consumption of electricity and gas has "declined sharply with the warm weather." Production of manufacturing industry, it has increased over one month (1.4%), but it is only to offset the decline in February.

Judgment of the Petit Couronne refinery

Moreover, throughout the first quarter, production fell 0.5% in manufacturing. A sharp decline (-1.7%) compared to what the production of the first quarter of 2011. In one year, some areas have suffered more: the production has fallen sharply in electrical, electronic and computer (-1.7%) and to a lesser extent, transport equipment (-0.6%). Refining, marked especially by cessation of the Petit Couronne refinery, fell sharply (-18.4%), also stresses the INSEE. Conversely, the agricultural and food industries have their own in the game

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The export machine of South Korea is emerging. After suffering the brunt of the crisis of the euro, the Land of the Morning Calm-recorded in the first quarter its strongest growth last year, demonstrating its ability to rebound. Seoul announced Thursday a 0.9% growth, a significant increase compared to 0.3% the previous quarter, fueling hopes of an annual expansion of 3.5%, the OECD predicted.

"We're doing relatively well, given the weak global economy", says Kim Young-bae, director of the Bank of Korea. Relief is required by decision makers of the fourth largest economy in Asia, 46% of GDP depends on exports, particularly to Europe, its second largest trading partner after China. This slight increase is a lifeline ripped by large groups, such as Hyundai Motors, which recorded an increase of 31% of its revenue through increased sales in the U.S. and Europe.

But behind these numbers right, the clouds on the horizon. An OECD report, published Thursday in Seoul, tip the scale of the demographic challenge that awaits the young democracy of 50 million people and threatens its future development. With a fertility rate among the lowest in the world (1.05 children per woman), the country will suffer in the coming year accelerated aging which will impact negatively on growth.

"Marriage strike"

Followed by the specter of Japan, model and longtime rival, the path of decline. The OECD calls on Seoul to take the bull by the horns by implementing proactive measures to adapt to the demographic shock. First, by raising the birth rate by funding systems affordable child care, while most South Koreans are forced to choose between career and motherhood. If women entered heavily on the labor market, often times Stakhanovists companies make it difficult to balance work and motherhood. So, 40% in their thirties who are employed are single. This "marriage strike" is a major cause of the bust according to the Korea Development Institute (KDI).

The OECD also stresses the urgency of improving the productivity per hour, two times lower than that of advanced countries, reforming an education system where cramming is the key to success.

These measures are all the more necessary that the country is not ready for mass immigration, as evidenced by a recent survey that only 36% of South Koreans favor the coexistence of different cultures on their territories. On April 13, Jasmine Lee's election, the first member of foreign origin, has unleashed a slew of racial slurs online, highlighting the challenge.

Only a major geopolitical upheaval in Pyongyang leading to early reunification with North Korea seems able to thwart the predictions of the OECD.

Nothing works for Nokia and its new boss Stephen Elop. A week after reducing its forecasts for mobile phones in the first half of this fiscal year, the Finnish group said the extent of damage. The group, which is losing its world of telephony in favor of South Korea's Samsung, has declined by 29% of its turnover in the first quarter, to 7.35 billion euros. Nokia says it has shipped 82 million mobile phones in the first quarter, with a decline in sales in this activity by 40%.

The result remains in the red, as in the last quarter of 2011. But the operating loss increased to EUR 1.3 billion. Now the two core businesses of Nokia show losses. In mobile phones, the operating loss represents 3% of sales against 10% more profit for the same period of 2011 free credit score. In equipment for telecommunications networks, Nokia Siemens Networks' book including the mobile network of Free, the operating loss reached 5% of revenues.

Especially in the short term, the outlook remains bleak. The loss in mobile phones should be of similar magnitude in the second trimestre.Les sales of Nokia mobile also collapse in North America and Chine.La only glimmer of hope rests on smartphones equipped with a Operating from Microsoft, including the aircraft from the Lumia provided the U.S. with T-Mobile and AT & T.

Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook have better watch out. The French presidential candidates are determined to stop tax evasion which these American giants of the Internet are guilty by repatriating their revenues in France to countries like Ireland or Luxembourg, where tax companies is softer.

In their profession of faith addressed to the Digital Collective of digital players, Nicolas Sarkozy as Francois Hollande promised to introduce fiscal measures to impose American groups as their French competitors in the Hexagon. "We will favor the European way (…) but we also work with a national solution," said the Socialist candidate as well. Specifically, it is to negotiate the "establishment virtual stable" at European level even with the OECD and to use the short term, to "complete business cycle" that can be considered as localized in France transactions of a company headquarters abroad. Both solutions also contained in the program menu of digital Nicolas Sarkozy, who wants "a fair taxation system in France and Europe." These tools would produce more revenue than the proposed "Google tax" championed by Senator Philippe Marini UMP, limited him to online advertising revenues.

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Very offensive, Eric Leclerc, head of site leparisien.fr, stated flatly: "In 2007 we were in cabbages, with 300,000 unique visitors per month. Today we have peaks at 5.6 million. ".

National information site highly leveraged local info, leparisien.fr is a special case. 74% of its visitors live outside the Ile-de-France. It is therefore the first and by far, in attendance among the sites of the regional daily press, with 38 million total visits, according to OJD. "Our strength is responsiveness, explains Eric Leclerc. Once an event of national scope is identified, it sends reporters then fed into the site every minute. "

The Battle of the hearing, everyone is set. In the footsteps of their fellow Ile, sites in regions learn to boost their traffic, high growth in recent years. Ouestfrance.fr, which generates 45% of its traffic outside its coverage area, also focusing on the hot news, the "breaking news" and the video. The hearing ladepeche.fr out of the Midi-Pyrenees region reached 36%.

The events taking place in regions which detonate hearings fast payday loans. Thus, the case Merah ladepeche.fr allowed to reach over 12 million visits, as many as ouestfrance.fr. And the day after the election of Miss France in Brest, on December 4, the hearing on letelegramme.com reached 290,000 visits.

More services

The next battle is the pay info. Ladepeche.fr is not the only site to clear this minefield. "We do not expect to be profitable to invest," said Fabien Charmetant letelegramme.com support the site, which, as lavoixdunord.fr, began to form bases of loyal readers online and then look to monetize content.

The big question is which. If free access to information is an unavoidable, media groups know that the information value-added will have a future where users have been réhabitués to pay. In the short term, the safest path is to create more services, that, by their proximity to natural, local newspapers are able to do. Even if they have to relearn this role in a highly fluid technological environment.

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The main presidential candidates have one thing in common: they announce tax increases for years to come. None of them claim to return to zero deficit by cutting public expenditure only: they know that the remedy would be too much for the French social model. In addition, candidates are aware that economic growth alone will not fill the public coffers.

On this point, economists are even more cautious. Nicolas Sarkozy expects a GDP growth of 2% from 2014, Francois Hollande 2% in 2014 and 2.25% thereafter. "It would be wiser to predict growth of 1.5%," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. "And above all, to the same level, growth will generate less tax revenues spontaneously that during the expansion phase of pre-2007", warning Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE.

Mechanically, when the GDP is up, after the mandatory deductions. More profit, this means more corporate tax (IS), higher wages, better social security contributions and income tax (IR), etc.. But according to the type of growth, the correlation is stronger or weaker.

The economy of the early 2000s, characterized by a housing boom, was particularly conducive to tax revenue. And transfer taxes, a tax on real estate transactions, they reported to local authorities 9.6 billion in 2007, against 4.7 billion in 2000. The revenues of the ISF have almost doubled (2.2 billion in 2000, 4 billion in 2007). "Growth was also driven by household spending. A boon to the State whose main tax, VAT, sits on consumption, "adds Jean-Christophe Caffet. Finally, the SI was doped up to 2007 by record profits of banks. In a 2008 report, Philippe Marini, then general reporter (UMP) of the Senate Finance Committee, spoke of the hypothesis of a "bubble" of € 10 billion on tax burden.

"Adjustment Period"

A bubble that broke with the financial crisis. Scarce, taxes and social contributions decreased in 2009. The IS has collapsed, yielding 21 billion in 2009 against 51 billion in 2007. Since then, the tax burden returned to their pre-crisis level, with the exception of the SI (39 billion in 2011). "But if there had been no crisis, levies would exceed 23 billion that they are today. There is indeed a structural loss of revenue, "said Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC.

In addition, revenues will not recover their train of yesteryear. "The growth model due to housing boom and strong consumer is finished. We have entered a period of adjustment, where wages will rise slightly. VAT, transfer duties, but also social contributions will grow less quickly, "said Jean-Christophe Caffet. So over the spontaneous surge of revenues, as before 2007. That's why taxpayers are involved since 2010. And if the economic growth forecast by the candidates was not at the rendezvous, higher taxes might be higher than 50 billion program of Francois Hollande and 16 billion provided by Nicolas Sarkozy.

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After Greece, out of bankruptcy risk through the release of a second bailout of 130 billion euros, it was Spain who finds himself in the crosshairs of the Eurogroup, meeting on Monday evening in Brussels. The Spanish finance minister will have to explain on the skids deficits Spanish before his peers, the European Commission and the ECB President.

The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, had a surprise, on March 2, alongside the European Council, stating that Spain would build his 2012 budget with a deficit target of 5.8% of GDP, while that agreed with the EU was 4.4%, to reach 3% of GDP deficit in 2013.

The market reaction was not long in coming. Following this, the cost of borrowing from Spain to 10 years jumped to nearly 5% more than for the first time in months, that of Italy. Guardian of the future "fiscal pact", the European Commission ordered a "serious blunder", brandished the threat of financial sanctions and sent experts to Madrid to assess the fiscal situation. Last year, the Spanish public deficit soared more than expected to reach 8.51% of GDP in late 2011.

Threat of sanctions

"There is no questioning of objectives," says the Spanish Minister of Economy, Luis De Guindos, in an interview Sunday on ABC newspaper. "Spain is a loyal member of the EU who feels bound by the European fiscal rules," he says.

Engaged in a very severe austerity measures, faces a general strike in late March because of its reform of the labor market, Spain is weighed down by losses of its regions, which have slipped to 2.9% of GDP against only 1.3% under-the Madrid region meets its objectives, which weighs heavily on central government accounts.

Barely out of the Greek crisis, "the euro area can not afford a new speculative attack," recalls one in Brussels. The Commission will ask the government to submit a plan "credible" to bring deficits to 3% in 2013, implying a say in Brussels on the draft budget 2012 Spanish.

Monday night, finance ministers from the euro area will give the green light to launch the second program of aid to Greece. Of 130 billion euros, the IMF should be involved up to 18 billion, said Christine Lagarde.

Even the Germans say they are reassured about the situation in Greece. "I am confident that the measures taken hard by the Greek government will put the country on the road to recovery," said German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, unwilling to speculate on a third plan to help … To parry , the European Central Bank will continue its buybacks of bonds on the secondary market, ensures Coeuré Benedict, a member of the Executive Board of the ECB to Japanese newspaper Nikkei.

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It was to be expected. Recruitment of young graduates in the audit consultant should decrease in 2012. However, nothing to do with the situation of 2009, the year of drastic reduction in hiring plans. Overall, the activity of firms is maintained but the turnover of employees, which can reach 20% in good times, tends to slow. With the financial crisis, young consultants do not receive many job offers from their customers. This is less of starters to replace. "Earlier this year, our recruitment should be more selective, confirms Baculard Hervé, President of Syntec management consulting. But we can not exclude surprises for the second half, with a wave of more opportunities for young graduates. "

Pending a hypothetical thinning, caution is called for. As with Deloitte, which provides 750 to 800 hires graduates, two-thirds of tray 5 and a third tray for two or three trades of public accounting. Same trend at Mazars, announcing 350 new hires for beginners, the same as in 2011. Sylvie Bernard-Curie, HR Advisory, KPMG Audit, estimates that it will hire "as much or slightly less than last year. Our goal is 720 graduates in CDI. " For its part, PwC expects a small decline: 470 recruits out of school against 520 last year. Less CDI also to sign with Accenture, which provides all the same 350 to 400 reinforcements of graduates (excluding trainees).

Open to university profiles

Side outlets, this is a return to fundamentals. The financial audit is to remain the preferred gateway for juniors. "This area is much more resistant than other more sensitive to economic conditions, such as transactions and mergers and acquisitions," says Isabelle encumber, director of recruitment at PwC. Beginners are also popular in the Outsourcing and Accounting and consulting in strategy and management. For these trades, "the needs are very important from our customers in areas affected by new regulations such as bancassurance, or the energy sector," says Jean-Marc Mickeler, Brand Manager of Deloitte employer .

In an uncertain economic times, employers do not they go play it safe by focusing on candidates in business schools at the expense of academics? The firms insist they will continue to open in the same proportions in the Masters 2 (bac +5). "Beware of clichés. The courses are less uniform than a decade ago. Now, there are Masters who have interned, completed a double degree or completed a stay abroad, ensures Sylvie Bernard-Curie. This makes them interesting and graduate school of management. "

According to the firms, recruitment of academics could be more if some schools were more open to the world of business. "We must do a great job of selection to identify the best Masters in terms of skills and language among the thousands that exist, says Caroline Haquet, Recruitment Manager at Mazars (25% of academics). However, to communicate with campus, we have not always clearly identified as an interlocutor. There is an entry barrier higher than in larger schools. "

Demanding recruitment processes

Personality test, business cases, interviews … processes differ from one firm to another.

Deloitte. Successful applicants are entitled to an initial interview with a collaborator. Meanwhile, they pass a personality test and English. The best after a second interview with a partner. The objective: to verify the intellectual agility, openness and adaptability of the candidate.

KPMG. After an initial selection of CV, the candidate is received for a "discovery interview" accompanied by an English test and a personality test by questionnaire. If it passes these tests, he participated in a morning with the program: a presentation of activities, a second interview with a manager or a partner in the area of ​​their choice and a lunch with a young executive in the firm who will advise on the new recruit.

PwC. Candidates whose CVs have been identified individually meet with an HR manager in a key English test computer. Second step for the survivors: the realization of a business case directly with an operational manager. Finally, the "cream of the cream" is entitled to a final validation interview with a partner. The purpose of this very selective process, "validate the candidate's interpersonal skills, ability to listen and understand customer needs."

Accenture. First step, an interview of "motivation", conducted partly in English with a manager. The same day, the candidates must address collectively, in groups of about 10, the resolution of a business case. Then, the floor is, this time individually on solving another case business. The best are selected to meet a partner.

Mazars. No personality test, or resolution of business cases. Each session (in January and June) begins with an oral presentation of the firm to selected candidates. Then place two successive interviews with the firm's business. Each interview covers a portion of the CV. If the candidate is selected, it has a third interview a few days later with a more senior manager or partner.  

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The commercial center of the Three Quarters, in front of the Madeleine in Paris, finding colors. C & A will move in March 2013 over Decathlon, hosted by the abandoned clothing store for men Madelios (Spring Group) a year ago. The Australian fund MGPA, owner of the building since 2009, has reached an agreement with the sign Germano-Dutch, who obtained all necessary approvals for its fifth store in Paris. "La Madeleine will be our new flagship, which will offer a younger, less traditional, to attract new consumers," says one at C & A France.  

This new formula will speak about 5400 m2, an area slightly smaller than that of C & A of the Rue de Rivoli or the Boulevard Haussmann online cash advance.

Renovations and expansion began in that outlet, situated opposite the spring, which will include codes store Velizy. This other concept of the sign refurbished clothing has "helped advance the traffic and sales," explained the group, without giving further details. After opening nine stores last year, bringing its network to 127 outlets, C & A opened this year between 13 and 14, in Angers, including Lyon and Troyes.

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The majority of French (63%) believe that pensions will diminish in the future, according to a poll conducted for CSA-Cecop Circle Fund. Professional categories most affluent are most worried (78% of executives).

To address this possible shortfall, more than half of respondents (54%) plan to save a priority to prepare for retirement (45% of them have savings to cover their expenses insurance). For them, life insurance seems inescapable. "It is still perceived as the ideal investment," said Jerome Jaffre, director of the Center for Knowledge and Public Opinion (Cecop).

Only 2% of redemptions reinvested in other investments

However, life insurance was shunned by investors in 2011. For the first time, they withdrew more money than they paid. Net inflows fell to 7.6 billion euros in 2011, almost seven times less than in 2010.

"Most investors have mostly drew on their savings to consume or purchase real estate payday loan lenders. Only 2% of redemptions were reinvested in other financial investments, "says Philippe Crevel, general secretary of the circle of investors. This trend may ease this year, with 85% claim that they do not intend to touch the savings in the coming months.

In this election, more than one French respondent in two (55%) think that the left, if she wins the 2012 election, will not restore the statutory retirement age to 60 years. And 58% of them anticipate even ultimately rejected a legal age to 65. In 2011, there were only 30% think.

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