Sundial of world news

Gloomy atmosphere at the Paris Bourse. On Wednesday, the benchmark index in Paris ended sharply down 0.88% to 3837.98 points. Either in the 3850 points, a significant technical threshold, which has not happened since March 18 last. Even bad mood: the London Stock Exchange was down 0.95% at 5808.89 points while in Frankfurt the Dax loose 0.61% to 7060.23 points.

On Tuesday, the benchmark index beyond the Paris Bourse had managed to achieve a small rebound. But since the Fed has made comments that disturb operators, already worried by the weak U.S. economy. In a televised speech in Atlanta, its chairman Ben Bernanke said that economic growth across the Atlantic remained "desperately slow" and that it required the maintenance of a "monetary policy complacency."He said that "growth should recover somewhat in the second half, but remain generally moderate. Delivered just before the close of U.S. markets, the speech was the turning Wall Street into the red. And this morning, Asian stock markets also reacted negatively.

Furthermore, growth of the emerging world should rise from 7.3% in 2010 "to about 6.3% annually from 2011-2013," considers the Bank's global economic forecast published in Washington.

French record trade deficit

In this gloomy atmosphere, the markets will monitor several indicators, mainly European.

– In France, the trade deficit set a record high in April to 7.14 billion euros, against 5.91 billion in March, seasonally adjusted data, the Customs said Wednesday.Moreover, the deficit of state budget stood at 61.4 billion euros in late April against 56.2 billion a year earlier, according to data released Wednesday by the Budget Ministry.

– In Germany, exports fell 5.5% in April on a month and imports by 2.5% over the same period, according to preliminary data adjusted for seasonal and calendar published Wednesday by the Federal Statistics Office . Other bad news, industrial production in Germany fell 0.6% in April on a month, its first decline since December, after rising 1.2% in March, said Wednesday the Department of Economics.

– Economic growth of countries in the euro area was well brought up to 0.8% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, Eurostat said.In one year, growth was also confirmed at 2.5%.

– U.S. stocks of crude oil dropped ten times more than expected last week in the U.S., but gasoline inventories rose sharply, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy. Then 20 hours, the Fed will deliver the findings of its Beige Book.

Side currency, the euro lost ground against the dollar Wednesday after being around $ 1.47 the day before. To 17 hours in Paris, the single European currency traded at 1.4575 dollars against 1.4688 dollars late Tuesday. Oil prices were, themselves, without direction in electronic trading in Asia in anticipation of an OPEC meeting in Vienna in the day that might decide to increase production.A barrel of light sweet crude for July delivery took 7 cents 99.16 dollars while that of Brent North Sea crude for delivery same retreated 48 cents to 116.30 dollars.

Banks still abused

No value of the CAC 40 is in the green at closing. On the SBF 120, Groupe Eurotunnel rises of 0.88%. The operator of the Channel Tunnel has won the tender launched by the great seaport of Bordeaux to determine the particular conditions of access to the network of railways, said on Tuesday a statement from the group.Saft rises of 0.80%, HSBC rose to overweight on the title.

Back on the Cac 40, Alcatel-Lucent shows the largest decrease: -3.26% to 3.65 euros.

Sanofi Aventis, valued for his defensive forward timidly from 0.17% to 52.33 euros.

Banks are generally downward: Natixis (-2.07% to 3.50 euros), Societe Generale (-1.39% to 39.79 euros) and BNP Paribas (-0.82% to 52.21 euros ) undergo further profit taking.

PPR: -1.67% to 115.15 euros

The group announced it is extending its takeover offer for the American Volcom until June 16

Hermes: +0.08% to 187.80 euros, LVMH: -1.11% to 116.30 euros

The group returns to its highest in October 2010 and outperformed the other lasting values ​​of luxury in favor of speculation about a takeover at the end of the saddle by LVMH, which already owns more than 20% of a group supported by sustained growth .

Schneider Electric: -1.34% to 110.70 euros

The authority of U.S. markets, the SEC filed a complaint for insider trading around the offer of French Schneider Electric on the Spanish Telvent. According to a warning issued Tuesday on the website of the SEC, this crime would have allowed the authors to make a profit of about $ 475,000 in total through the sale of option contracts Telvent acquired before the announcement of massive Schneider's offer.

Renault: -2.20% to 36.72 euros

The decision of the Court of Appeal of Versailles on the possible recognition as an occupational accident suicide in February 2007, Raymond D, employee Technocentre Renault in Guyancourt (Yvelines), is expected Thursday.The suicide of Raymond D was the third employee of the Technocentre in the space of four months between late 2006 and early 2007.

Belvedere: stable at 61.48 euros

After the decision of the Court of Appeal of Dijon, on Tuesday to confirm the cancellation of the safeguard procedure, the band announced that it "remains open to an agreement with its main creditors in the run to finish with a conflict that has lasted too long. "

BioAlliance: + 1.78% to 6.30 euros

The group wants to create a commercial structure for selling online in Europe's orphan drugs in oncology while pursuing its strategy of licensing agreements for its specialty products.

NYSE Euronext: -0.54% to 24.06 euros

NYSE and Deutsche Börse have announced a special dividend of 2 euros per share for shareholders of the combined group

GDF Suez: -0.49% to 24.43 euros

Group CEO, Gerard Mestrallet, warned Tuesday against Montreal seduction exerted excessive public opinion renewables, noting in particular the high cost of wind power."These are intermittent energy sources that will require large reserve capacity, which will be based on natural gas because of the ease of use of gas turbines," he told the International Economic Forum of the Americas.

Total: -0.20% to 38.21 euros

The U.S. manufacturer SunPower solar panels, partial target of a takeover of French Total, raised its forecast Tuesday quarterly revenue but warned that its margins could suffer from falling prices.

Next recommendation, after Exane BNP Paris yesterday, Credit Suisse rose to "outperform" on the title Michelin (-0.14% to 63.70 euros).

Please note that Air France-KLM will unveil its traffic in May after-hours trading. Valeo and Sopra hold their general meetings and Gifi publish the results of its second quarter after market close.

Once is not custom, the Cac 40 owes its salvation to Greece. While preparing to end the week on a third consecutive decline, after the publication of unemployment figures very disappointing for the month of May that highlight the fragility of the recovery in U.S. stock index has closed unchanged at 3890.68 points.

The Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange closed up 0.12% to 5855.01 points. The Dax-30 from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange finished up 0.49% at 7109.03 points.

A wave of optimism has swept over the financial markets in the late afternoon after Greece and the "troika" has released details of an upcoming fiscal tightening.And especially that the country has reached agreement with its creditors to pay him a new financial assistance.

The service sector slows in Europe

In France, growth in services sector activity slowed slightly in May but remains close to the peak of nearly 11 years hit the previous month, final results showed on Friday of the monthly survey from the Markit Purchasing Managers . PMI Segment income $ 62.5 after hitting 62.9 in April, its highest level since September 2000. An initial flash estimate of 62.8 gave the May 23

This same index slowed sharply in Germany last month to 56.1, its lowest level since October against a flash estimate of 54.9 and a figure of 56.8 in April.However, it is accelerating in the U.S., the index of purchasing managers in the sector has emerged up from from April to 54.6.

Also overseas, only 54,000 net jobs were created in May, according to figures from the Labor Department. That is three times less than economists' forecasts.

As for currencies, the euro, which climbed to over $ 1.45 yesterday, continues its recovery. It traded at 1.4567 dollars this morning.

Oil prices fell Friday in New York after the release of employment figures far worse than expected in the United States, showing a sharp slowdown in hiring in May in the country no faxing payday loan.

Late afternoon in Paris, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude for July delivery traded at 99.46 dollars, down 0.94% compared to the day before.

Banks in good shape

The banking sector shows the largest gains among CAC 40 after Greece and the "Troika" (European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank) unveiled the budget plan for Greece and Athens has confirmed that Agreement was reached with its creditors to pay him a new financial assistance. BNP Paribas (2.18% to 53.55 euros), Societe Generale (1.95% to 40.98 euros), Credit Agricole (2.17% to 10.58 euros) move.

TF1: +0.40% at 12.48 euros

Media rights to Roland Garros on Europe, formerly held by Eurosport (TF1), will change the diffuser to be allocated to the agency MP & Silva from 2012.

Vivendi: 0.63% to 19.07 euros

SFR announce next week an overhaul of its mobile offerings and partnership with the broadcast site Spotify music on the internet, writes La Tribune. The telecom operator will hold a press conference Tuesday, June 7

Thales: 1.16% to 29.28 euros, Safran: 0.59% to 27.94 euros

Discussions between the two groups regarding an exchange of assets will be using a mediator, Aldo Cardoso, former head of Andersen's consulting firm, said Friday the newspaper Les Echos.

Renault: 0.70% to 38.16 euros

The manufacturer believes that the shortage of diesel that has weighed on its registrations in the month of May in France will be eliminated in the second half, especially against the backdrop of the expected slowdown of the market, told The Tribune on Commerce Director of the French subsidiary.

Note that his main competitor, Peugeot, the fastest rising Cac 40 and the closure of the Paris stock exchange, rising 2.19% to 28.20 euros.

A video of Figaro easy payday loans.fr

The members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the United States (Fed) are unanimous: the inflation in their country is only "temporary." This consensus on the issue of price is clear from the minutes of the meeting held on 26 and 27 April. "Participants generally expected that the higher level of inflation would be a passenger," says the Fed on Wednesday.

According to the latter, "that forecast was based in part on a projection that the curve of changes in commodity prices would flatten out and the belief that inflation expectations remain stable longer term." As a reminder, the Fed on a table in 2011 inflation in the United States between 2.1 and 2.8% this year.In April, she displayed an increase of 3.2% over one year and 1.3% excluding food and energy.

Participants in that meeting had in fact echoed the boss of the Central Bank, Ben Bernanke. In early April, he had described the current surge in prices of "transient". Remarks which had so angered the American press which noted the difference between the Fed and the general public is faced with higher prices at the pump in a fixed wage.

Liquidate assets

Inflation, which was at the heart of discussions at that meeting led to another consensus on the need for further monetary policy support the economy until at least late June. The main rate by the Fed remains close to zero.

Citing how the monetary institution should withdraw that support when the time comes, most leaders of the U.S. Federal Reserve agreed that it will take it winds up its portfolio in the medium term and that priority was separate assets linked to mortgages. "Many of these participants also expressed their preference for such assignments are relatively progressive," it added.

On Wall Street, markets mostly hold these discussions "should not be perceived as a sign that the Fed is preparing to raise rates." The Dow Jones, who played in a small increase before the publication of the report, closing with a gain of 0.65% at 12,560 points.

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The director of Medicare does not hide its intention, revealing new figures on excess fees, weigh on the negotiations with private doctors, which should lead to early summer. "The system just drift since its inception 30 years ago, Frederick van Roekeghem regrets. We want to sound the alarm on the need to implement structural reforms. "

Overruns (these are requested beyond the "tariff Safely" legally by doctors of "Sector 2 but poorly repaid by certain complementary health) accounted last year for 2.5 billion euros, on a total of 20.9 billion euros in fees. A proportion is similar in style singled out by the Inspectorate of Social Affairs in 2004, which argued that while a "significant increase" during the previous decade.But behind this "apparent stability", says Fred van Roekeghem lies a greater concentration.

In 1990, 16% of physicians "family" could charge excess fees. Since then, the degree requirements were introduced which prevent virtually any plant of the generalist sector 2, and only 7% of workforce is concerned. The proportion of specialists in Area 2, with her stable for the past twenty years (41% in 2010). But if she fell for clinical specialties (pediatricians, dermatologists, gastroenterologists between 32% and 40%), it flies in the operating room: 34% against 28% for anesthesiologists, 85% against 73% for surgeons.And in all these areas, the sector will expand in the next two years as junior doctors settle overwhelmingly.

Physicians increasingly "greedy"

In addition, doctors applying overruns are becoming more "gourmet" on the amounts required: 54% of the "Safely rate, on average, against 25% in 1990. Note that Medicare confirms the intuition of the French Mutuality: 4.5% of public hospital doctors allowed to perform – for 20% of their working time to the maximum – a professional activity in area 2 practice overruns higher than their liberal counterparts "pure." Supplements such resources reach 81% in surgery, against 56% in the private sector, 80% against 48% in ENT, ophthalmology, or 96%, 60% cons.

Overtaking both more frequent and higher are concentrated in certain areas – with high purchasing power – like Paris and West of the Ile-de-France, Rhône, Alsace and the Coast d'Azur.

A problem of access to care

Nevertheless. "The phenomenon empire, says Frederick van Roekeghem. It poses a problem of access to care. " The boss of Medicare does not refute the argument of doctors (surgeons in particular): they are using the overruns is that the social security system pays too little certain acts, given their cost, their difficulty, duration, or the risk that affects the amount of insurance premiums. It's good to help doctors make more money without costing too much to Medicare that the sector 2 was created in 1980 by Raymond Barre.And it's not a coincidence that the least among specialists in Sector 2 are installed cardiologists (20%) and radiologists (13%), considered very good living by simply make rates Safely.

Frederick van Roekeghem says ready to act on the question to finally allow the entry into force of the solution advocated since 2004: the "optional sector. This would be for anesthesiologists, surgeons and obstetricians Area 2 volunteers to achieve at least 30% of their actions and costs Safely, do not charge for overruns over 50% on the rest of their activity, complementary health s 'committing their part to repay the money. "This discussion will reopen. I think it's the last time, "warns the director of Medicare.

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While the Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was charged with attempted rape and arrested in the U.S. yesterday as investors worried about the turn that will take the debt crisis in the euro area, especially in Greece. The indictment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn ally of Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou, arrived in effect at the worst time for Athens. The IMF chief would have had to go in Berlin on Sunday and meet Angela Merkel to discuss a possible new aid to Greece, who won the spring of 2010 using a 110 billion euros, 30 billion from the IMF.This meeting was to take place on the eve of a meeting of the Eurogroup, the Monday night and Tuesday in Brussels, with the main discussions at the agenda of the financial problems that resurface Greece for several days and plaguing the markets, concerned about the risks of bankruptcy of Greece, and the possible contagion to other countries of the euro area.

The IMF will be well represented at the meeting of the Eurogroup, the deputy general manager of operations, Nemat Shafik, who was missionnée to attend. But analysts say the IMF's support to Greece is not as steadfast as Dominique Strauss-Kahn took the reins of the institution.Thus, Eswar Prasad, an analyst at the Brookings Institution told the antenna Bloomberg: "The assumption was that as Dominique Strauss-Kahn remained at the head of the IMF, the institution has not dropped in Europe and continue to support the continent. But the departure of Dominique Strauss-Kahn casts doubt on the intentions of the IMF payday advance. "

The IMF board will meet on Monday

Immediate consequence of these doubts, the euro was down Monday morning on the currency markets in Asia. The euro bought 1.4056 dollars in Tokyo Monday morning, 1.4108 against the dollar in New York Friday night. Against the yen, the European currency eased to 113.61 yen against 113.99 yen. "For a few days at least, the market will fear a paralysis of leadership at the IMF.The euro is the currency will suffer the most since the IMF is active or in process of being implemented in three countries in the eurozone, "said an analyst.

For its part, the IMF has tried to be reassuring, saying yesterday that he remained "fully functional and operational," after stating that John Lipsky, IMF number two, will the Interim Director General of the institution the time required. The institution must meet its board of directors on Monday to decide the fate of its president at its head.Originally scheduled yesterday the appointment was postponed, the council waiting for new developments to make its decision in this situation that observers deemed "not simple".

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The NYSE playing yoyo on Thursday. After starting down (-0.20% for the Dow Jones), the indices reflected the upward path. About 20 hours in Paris, the Dow Jones gained 0.48% at 12,691 points, the Nasdaq is 0.56% at 2861 points and the S & P advance of 0.51% to 1349 points.

This return is in the green at the same time as the rise in oil prices. The latter, who had also opened lower at 96.96 dollars, recovered after a sharp color correction yesterday. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price rises to $ 99.

Caution remains formatting: "Concerns about Europe and the debt crisis with the International Monetary Fund warning of a risk of contagion from the situation in Greece, indicators Chinese earlier this week, The warning from the International Energy Agency on oil demand, it all comes out at once and shower market, "said Phil Flynn of PFG Best Research.

Greece worries

The fiscal situation in Greece still disturbs the meeting. Thousands of Greeks have shown Wednesday, the day of general strike against austerity measures and privatizations decided by the government that seeks new international aid to avoid a debt restructuring of the country.

In the wake of these events, the euro fell sharply against the greenback, falling below $ 1.42 Wednesday. But about 20 hours, the single currency rises.The euro bought 1.4266 dollars at that time against 1.4193 dollars late Wednesday.

Retail sales and producer prices

On the macroeconomic front, retail sales rose slightly less than expected in April in the U.S. (+0.5% against 0.6%), posting their smallest increase in nine months as rising prices Food and fuel accounts for household spending.The producer prices have increased them by 0.8% in April according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department, more than expected by analysts who had forecast 0.5%.

New jobless claims fell to 434,000 during the first week of May, according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department, down nearly equal to the unexpected increase in the previous week.

Finally, business inventories rose more than expected in March, while sales posted their largest gain in a year, suggesting that first-quarter GDP will be revised upward, said Thursday the Commerce Department.Inventories rose 1.0% to 1.476 billion dollars, its highest level since November 2008, while economists polled by Reuters had waited an increase of 0.8%.

The side of values

The oil companies, heavyweights rating penalized yesterday by falling prices, contributing to their rise on Thursday. Thus, Chevron gained 0.66% to 102.936 dollars and ExxonMobil up from 0.38% to 81.43 dollars.

Cisco has unveiled for the fourth quarter of 2010/2011 a turnover of 1.67 billion, up 9% and net profits tax of 168 million dollars against 184 million last year. For the current quarter, the software company believes that business prospects are mixed and the current quarter will be "low" according to the leaders. The title loses 6.02% to 16.72 dollars.

The publisher of security software and antivirus software, Symantec (3.40 to 20.07 dollars) has announced earnings per share of 38 cents against 36 cents expected by analysts, and a turnover of 1 , 67 billion also exceeded expectations of analysts who had forecast $ 1.6 billion.

Google Internet group (-0.80% to 531.15 U.S. dollars) will launch next month the first computers using its new operating system chrome, representing a total challenge to the business model of Microsoft with its Windows system.These computers manufactured by Acer and Samsung, will have the distinction of having the browser Chrome only software preinstalled.

The U.S. internet group Yahoo! (-1.51% To 16.95 dolars) is still buffeted stock exchange after revealing that a subsidiary of the Chinese payment service online Alibaba Group, where he has a major stake, was passed under the control of boss Jack Ma of Alibaba

The rating agency Standard and Poor's said Wednesday evening that she fell a notch to "BBB", the note of U.S. chemicals group Dow Chemical (-1.23% to 38.52 U.S. dollars) with a stable outlook, due to the progress of its results and its prospects for debt reduction.

Also note, the leaders of telecom operators AT & T and T-Mobile (+0.13% to 31.42 dollars) clashed Wednesday night on U.S. lawmakers skeptical of their merger at $ 39 billion, announced in March . "Now four companies control nearly 90% of the national market of mobile telephony," said Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy. He called the competition authorities and Communications to conduct an extensive review of the transaction.

The markets took fright on Friday night after a new European cacophony. Greece had threatened to leave the euro in discussions with the European Commission, reports the website of German magazine Der Spiegel quoted a government source in Berlin. The major European capitals have refuted this information.

"These items are a challenge, undermine the effort of Greece and the euro and serve speculative games," said the Greek finance ministry said in a statement. "We did not discuss output of Greece in the euro area, we all think it would be a stupid option," added the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. "The assumption of an outflow of Greece to the euro area is completely fanciful", also assured Bercy.

Despite denials by the French, German and Greek, the single currency accelerated its decline against the dollar.Friday night shortly before 22:30, the euro lost nearly 1.4% to 1.4338 dollar. Rumor sign a new stage, and this information is disturbing. It is not surprising that the euro will weaken, "said one analyst at a U.S. bank. At the same time, the cost of insurance against a collapse of the Greek debt ("Credit default swaps, or CDS) jumped from 74 basis points to a record 1,370 basis points, according to Markit.

Meeting in Luxembourg

An emergency meeting, was held between some finance ministers from the eurozone. Jean-Claude Juncker as a German government source quoted by AFP on Saturday, it was denied solely on Greece.

"These are meetings that take place at irregular intervals, and mainly" the members of the euro area as the G20, such as France, Germany and Italy, the source said German.It argues, the discussions covered a wide variety of topics, including the regulation of financial markets, with Portugal, but also the financial situation of Greece. The Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou also confirmed to have attended the meeting Friday.

A debt restructuring envisaged Greek

According to the Greek press on Saturday, new support measures have been studied. The financial daily Naftemboriki referred to the lengthening of bonds maturing this year and in 2012, leaving Greece a breather. According to another newspaper, Kathimerini, the objectives of reducing the public deficit could also be pushed back two to four years, or interest rates in exchange for an extended break of two years, during which the country does not pay interest.

Contradictory statements are troubling indeed the euro area in recent weeks about a possible debt restructuring Greek. Lars Feld, one of economic advisers to Angela Merkel, considered by example on Sunday that the restructuring is "the only way forward so that Greece is a little relieved that creditors and help to solve the Greek problem." Jean-Claude Juncker for his part assured that this option had been ruled Friday. While stating that the possibility of a new adjustment program would be discussed at the next meeting of the Eurogroup on 16 May.

The RSA is still too much to summarize for the assistantship. This is the opinion of the UMP on the social benefit created in late 2008 to replace the RMI. A member of the majority – Peter Lang – early April has filed a bill to require their recipients to perform twenty hours of community service per week. Right about the club's social ex-Secretary of State for Employment Laurent Wauquiez, he is preparing to request a return for five hours per week.

Recognizing this, the Head of State asked Marc-Philippe Daubresse, deputy secretary general of the UMP him "to make proposals to improve and upgrade the RSA, including its component insertion. That's why Martin Hirsch, the "father" of the RIAA, wrote to the former Minister for Active Solidarity letter – that Le Figaro was procured – to inform him of his "reform possibilities."He also said "available" to the convention that the UMP will devote to this subject in June and hopes to "be invited".

The former High Commissioner suggests to integrate RSA's earned income tax, "as expensive, ineffective, inequitable and diluted." One option discarded in 2008 that would "refocus budgetary resources on those who need it most." The president of the Civic Service Agency also proposes to revise the "slope" of the RSA (rate of income related to the resumption of employment that recipients are sure to keep). Set at 62%, he suggested the move to 70% for the RSA is "more incentive to work."This option was not selected in 2008 because of its cost ($ 3 billion, twice the budget approved) and the opposition of the Ministry of Employment.

"False good idea"

To increase the number of beneficiaries of the "RSA activity" (extra income for working poor) has reached in two years that 40% of its target (670,000 households), the former boss of Emmaus proposes to pay The RSA once a year. "A person would not file quarterly for 40 euros per month could ask the same time it made its return all the RSA which it could claim the title of the year, or 500 euros "says Martin Hirsch.

It encourages governments to "re-information campaigns, pointing that it is" rare and unusual "that a new benefit does not give rise to regular campaigns.And calls of "systematically provide a single integration contract" for recipients and above all to punish the double rejection. "This will help determine in what cases are the recipients who refuse a contract and helped when it comes to a lack of offers," he justified.

Martin Hirsch also reconsiders the "false good idea" to request a free exchange. "If we want to take five hours per week of activity to any recipient, then they must pay the minimum wage, or about 100 euros net gain", the only assumption that "do not turn your back to frontally work more to earn more .He blames the failure of the last RSA Young (8000 recipient, cons 16,000 expected) at Bercy, who made "a very inflated forecasts, for pushing the eligibility criteria strictest possible" and calls on the government to relax .

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Each has experienced: it is always extremely difficult to move from average to a respectable level of excellence, whether you are a pianist or a tennis player. The same is true for nations attain the status of "rich country" is not a foregone conclusion. Even when recording a growth of 10% per annum, and for three decades, which has enabled the Chinese to multiply their individual standard of living in a little over a generation.

Economic development is certainly not an exact science, but the trees do not ascend to heaven. Even in the jungle of state capitalism. There is no example in history where the growing disheveled inflected not only from a certain stage.By examining the career of some forty countries since the Second World War, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Kwanho Shin Park and discovered that the expansion slows inexorably past the threshold of 16,740 dollars to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita. Anxious to establish historical comparisons, the three economists have reduced all data in constant currency (dollars at 2005 prices). Their study is published by the NBER (When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China).

This law, the French and their European neighbors have suffered in the early 1970s. In France, 1973 has been the hinge, GDP individual having reached 16,904 dollars. Over the past seven years – the reign of De Gaulle and Pompidou – per capita growth was galloping at a rate of 4.6%.She fell to 2.2% during the seven-year following that of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, a decrease of 2.4% of scheme. The United States had known since 1968 a reversal of the same nature and magnitude slightly higher (2.5%, according to calculations by three economists).

This break in France coincided with the first oil shock, which our countrymen seem to have still not delivered. Since then, it has ceased to lament the state of "crisis". The French have not realized that they had recently experienced a "golden age a quarter century of rapid growth inaugurated by the Marshall Plan and the postwar recovery," said Barry Eichengreen and his two confreres . Fourastie what John called the "Thirty Glorious Years".

China has a number of vulnerabilities

The scenario is in reality always the same: the reconstruction periods are marked by exceptional productivity gains.They do not constitute a sustainable standard. Farmworkers become industrial country imports the new technologies which increase its effectiveness. But once this revenue exhausted, we must innovate and find other vectors of prosperity. Furthermore the threshold of 16,740 dollars, the three economists put forward another concept: things become more difficult when a country obtains a level equivalent to 57% of GDP in the most advanced economy, one that portrays "on the technological frontier "(the United States in this case).

For its part, China still seems quite distant from these two criteria, especially the second (the Chinese GDP was only 19.7% that of the U.S. in 2007). But should it maintain its annual rate of 10%, it would affect the level of fateful 16,740 dollars per capita in 2014. The danger zone is reached in just three years.Barry Eichengreen prognostic so that "a significant slowdown in Chinese growth is imminent."

It is even more positive that China presents to him a number of vulnerabilities, making the course more difficult to cross than others. The observation of the forty countries studied shows that the transition is particularly difficult for a country to an authoritarian political regime, the industrial workforce is over 20% of the workforce and has a weak currency. Korea offers the previous "one centered on manufacturing exports and helped by an undervalued currency, with a consequent sharp fall in its expansion in the 1990s, culminating in the 1997 financial crisis.

Brazil is a land of opportunity

The study envisages a significant shift for China's annual growth would average between 6.1% and 7% over the decade, and would fall another notch (5% to 6.2% between 2021 and 2030 ). Barry Eichengreen believes that "Chinese authorities are convinced that a slowdown will intervene." Beijing seems sincere when he sets a target of 7% annual growth for the five-year plan 2011-2015.

The new emphasis on domestic demand and services, instead of all bet on the industry and export, is designed to circumvent the curse that threatens the country catch up. Many of them never get out of the "middle income trap" (around 16,500 dollars) for lack of a successful transformation.What they think the French have managed to "obtain the status of high-income countries" and since 1973 the GDP per capita has more than doubled. However, this is not the case in Latin America, said Barry Eichengreen. "Brazil is a country of the future and will remain" in the words attributed to General de Gaulle in the 1960s.