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The growth figure of France for the first quarter, published this morning, was highly anticipated: it sets the tone of the beginning of the quinquennium the new president. And with sluggish growth in the first three months of the year (after a small increase of 0.1% the last three months of 2011, revised downwards), the least we can say is that the situation will not help Francois Hollande to the implementation of its program. None of the drivers of growth and gives no sign of strength: consumer expenditures of households are "sluggish" (0.2% in the first quarter, after +0.1% the previous one), while investment companies folds (-1.4%), INSEE said. And if imports return to growth, they do not offset the slowdown in exports sufficiently to prevent the trade weighs on growth. As for the production of goods and services, it turns "idle". In total, the growth overhang at the end of March – that is to say, the theoretical progression of GDP if the activity remained stable until the end of the year – amounted to 0.2%.

This stagnation of activity is not a surprise: the National Institute of Statistics had anticipated in March, when it published its quarterly notes on "the fever subsides, recovery will be slow." But the institute did not know then is that this turn of events in Greece could slow it down even further … If the time is not yet at risk of contagion to the Hexagon, "he Avoid the chaotic moments that disturb everyone, Greece is 2% of EU GDP, but this may be part of the little things that become large if not managed properly, "said an official of Bercy.

Dealing with an uncertain

Still, Francois Hollande will have to deal with an uncertain environment low fee cash advance. While the European Commission approved last week forecast growth of 0.5% this year, she expressed doubts about the ability of the new government to reach the figure of 1.7% growth in 2013. However, Francois Hollande believes in his ability to bounce activity. His lieutenant, Michel Sapin, cites as evidence the industrial policy announced by the candidate – more favorable, he said, growth – and European initiatives to materialize before he sees the end of next year, thanks an agreement between France and Germany.

In fact, the new team has no choice if she wants to meet his campaign promises and not be forced to reconsider all of its forecasts. Less growth because it means more unemployment, more deficit and more debt.

To balance its budget equation and honor commitments of public finances – down to 3% of GDP next year – François Hollande planned 29 billion in additional revenue by the end of 2013. But the task is of great magnitude. INSEE has confirmed that the government deficit in France at the end of 2011 stood at 103.1 billion euros, or 5.2% of GDP (decreased by 33.9 billion euros compared to 2010) , "because both the revenue buoyancy and expenditure restraint." It must come down to 4.5% this year. Public debt, it has reached 86% of GDP in 2011. Francois Hollande can not afford any off the road.

Especially since only a few hours meeting with Angela Merkel, Germany has put pressure on France: in the first quarter the economy across the Rhine has seen its GDP grow by 0.5%, bringing its growth on a rolling year to 1.7%. Numbers well above economists' forecasts.

The export machine of South Korea is emerging. After suffering the brunt of the crisis of the euro, the Land of the Morning Calm-recorded in the first quarter its strongest growth last year, demonstrating its ability to rebound. Seoul announced Thursday a 0.9% growth, a significant increase compared to 0.3% the previous quarter, fueling hopes of an annual expansion of 3.5%, the OECD predicted.

"We're doing relatively well, given the weak global economy", says Kim Young-bae, director of the Bank of Korea. Relief is required by decision makers of the fourth largest economy in Asia, 46% of GDP depends on exports, particularly to Europe, its second largest trading partner after China. This slight increase is a lifeline ripped by large groups, such as Hyundai Motors, which recorded an increase of 31% of its revenue through increased sales in the U.S. and Europe.

But behind these numbers right, the clouds on the horizon. An OECD report, published Thursday in Seoul, tip the scale of the demographic challenge that awaits the young democracy of 50 million people and threatens its future development. With a fertility rate among the lowest in the world (1.05 children per woman), the country will suffer in the coming year accelerated aging which will impact negatively on growth.

"Marriage strike"

Followed by the specter of Japan, model and longtime rival, the path of decline. The OECD calls on Seoul to take the bull by the horns by implementing proactive measures to adapt to the demographic shock. First, by raising the birth rate by funding systems affordable child care, while most South Koreans are forced to choose between career and motherhood. If women entered heavily on the labor market, often times Stakhanovists companies make it difficult to balance work and motherhood. So, 40% in their thirties who are employed are single. This "marriage strike" is a major cause of the bust according to the Korea Development Institute (KDI).

The OECD also stresses the urgency of improving the productivity per hour, two times lower than that of advanced countries, reforming an education system where cramming is the key to success.

These measures are all the more necessary that the country is not ready for mass immigration, as evidenced by a recent survey that only 36% of South Koreans favor the coexistence of different cultures on their territories. On April 13, Jasmine Lee's election, the first member of foreign origin, has unleashed a slew of racial slurs online, highlighting the challenge.

Only a major geopolitical upheaval in Pyongyang leading to early reunification with North Korea seems able to thwart the predictions of the OECD.

The ras-le-bol rises among users of TGV Nantes / Angers / Le Mans / Paris. And also the response … The members of the collective defense of Subscribers Line Atlantic (Ladala) took a new step in their protest movement against the repeated delays of the station, on the line leading to the capital. The trick to reach the railway portfolio. To do this, they have not hesitated to launch a "ghost TGV" massively by booking every seat of a TGV line in question. Of seats they will not play of course. Each member buying between 5 and 10 seats, 800 seats have already been blocked, all classes, as pointed out this morning on RTL Pascal Mignot, the representative of the collective.

Reaction except the SNCF, the train should travel empty, which would result in a serious shortfall. Because the protesters are concerned subscribers, a status that gives them access to places for a mere $ 1.50. And the date chosen is not trivial since the 250 members of Ladala have set Wednesday, May 16, the eve of Ascension Day and the weekend so great starts.

Greece of tickets

This is not the first time Ladala tries to voice his displeasure. Mid-March, the group had launched a strike of tickets and passes, along with daily rallies in trains and on platforms. Faced with the continuing delays and lack of financial consequences for the SNCF, the association thus increases the pressure, also taking on its website a statement of the duration of the movement, and delays on this line.

Faced with the accumulation of failures since the schedule changes in December 2011, their demands are clear: rate freeze on packages (over 500 euros per month), on-time to avoid disputes with employers, indemnity 2.5 euros per 10 minutes late, and got 150 euro for subscribers to compensate for failures of January, February and March. In total, officials estimate that the collective duration of 14 hours cumulative delays over this period.

Side of the Authority of the quality of service in transport (AQST, dependent on the Ministry of Ecology), although the figures show a surge in failures since November, with up to 30% of trains delayed . But since February, the trend seems to be improving. Apparently not enough to calm those subscribers, still wearing a badge "subscribers on strike," which also launched an online petition and sent a letter to presidential candidates. Denouncing a 18% increase in travel time on an ordinary trip to Le Mans / Paris, they have finally created a Twitter account inviting followers to list all the failures of the Atlantic line. An initiative that has been emulated the Creusot subscribers and Amiens have since joined the movement.

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The main presidential candidates have one thing in common: they announce tax increases for years to come. None of them claim to return to zero deficit by cutting public expenditure only: they know that the remedy would be too much for the French social model. In addition, candidates are aware that economic growth alone will not fill the public coffers.

On this point, economists are even more cautious. Nicolas Sarkozy expects a GDP growth of 2% from 2014, Francois Hollande 2% in 2014 and 2.25% thereafter. "It would be wiser to predict growth of 1.5%," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. "And above all, to the same level, growth will generate less tax revenues spontaneously that during the expansion phase of pre-2007", warning Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE.

Mechanically, when the GDP is up, after the mandatory deductions. More profit, this means more corporate tax (IS), higher wages, better social security contributions and income tax (IR), etc.. But according to the type of growth, the correlation is stronger or weaker.

The economy of the early 2000s, characterized by a housing boom, was particularly conducive to tax revenue. And transfer taxes, a tax on real estate transactions, they reported to local authorities 9.6 billion in 2007, against 4.7 billion in 2000. The revenues of the ISF have almost doubled (2.2 billion in 2000, 4 billion in 2007). "Growth was also driven by household spending. A boon to the State whose main tax, VAT, sits on consumption, "adds Jean-Christophe Caffet. Finally, the SI was doped up to 2007 by record profits of banks. In a 2008 report, Philippe Marini, then general reporter (UMP) of the Senate Finance Committee, spoke of the hypothesis of a "bubble" of € 10 billion on tax burden.

"Adjustment Period"

A bubble that broke with the financial crisis. Scarce, taxes and social contributions decreased in 2009. The IS has collapsed, yielding 21 billion in 2009 against 51 billion in 2007. Since then, the tax burden returned to their pre-crisis level, with the exception of the SI (39 billion in 2011). "But if there had been no crisis, levies would exceed 23 billion that they are today. There is indeed a structural loss of revenue, "said Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC.

In addition, revenues will not recover their train of yesteryear. "The growth model due to housing boom and strong consumer is finished. We have entered a period of adjustment, where wages will rise slightly. VAT, transfer duties, but also social contributions will grow less quickly, "said Jean-Christophe Caffet. So over the spontaneous surge of revenues, as before 2007. That's why taxpayers are involved since 2010. And if the economic growth forecast by the candidates was not at the rendezvous, higher taxes might be higher than 50 billion program of Francois Hollande and 16 billion provided by Nicolas Sarkozy.

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February was without much panache to the French national dailies. Sales of five of the eight titles of general information and sports have registered a decrease, France paid for a mailing of 1.6 million copies in total daily average, according to OJD, the supervisory body the press.

Among GPs, Le Figaro has kept its position as the leading national daily, to 330,725 copies, a slight increase (0.66%), followed by Le Monde, down 5.22%, to 279,455 copies. Sports daily Amaury Group, The Équipechute 8.8%, to 253,766 copies. Desechos sales, now only business daily since the demise of the print edition of The Tribune, have scraped 0.6%. After a strong month in January (5.7%), those of Libérationont declined 2%.  

Louis Dreyfus, chief executive of Le Monde, explains its poor performance against the election campaign, he said "less than the previous carrier," and the establishment of a retirement plan at Printing World which resulted work stoppages, "which made us miss sales in Paris and the provinces." But, conversely, the new format of the weekend's evening paper, enriched with three supplements and renovated a magazine, launched in September, is bearing fruit, with a circulation up 5% year on year , "despite an increase in the sale price low interest rate personal loans."

A new journal for tablets

Maintaining a price of 0.90 euro for weeks in Francea Today, however, allowed the national edition of Le Parisien, also in the Amaury group, earn 6.3%, to 167,890 copies, after a 14.6% jump in January, mainly due to a favorable base effect, the weather in January 2011 having lost many sales quotidien.Aujourd 'hui in Franceest focused by the judgment of the paper edition of France Soirdepuis mid-December 2011. 

For its part, says his Team in February by a slippage rate of migration to digital readership faster than in the general press, by an unfavorable base effect linked to the victory of the France team handball to World Championships in February 2011, and the cancellation of the match France-Ireland Six Nations on 12 February.

"The sports news has been sparse," said Francois Morinière, Group Chief Executive Team, which gives priority to develop its digital sales. His group will launch in May, just before the tournament at Roland Garros, a new 100% digital newspaper for reading on tablet.

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The time was expected. First of the three major presidential candidates invited to decline on Tuesday his plan at a symposium on "the challenges of competitiveness," co-organized by the French private companies (which brings together 100 companies from the Hexagon ), Francois Hollande has held the outlines of his program: a list of measures already known (contract generation, modulation of the corporate income tax according to their size, targeting of state subsidies on exporting companies, strengthening the research tax credit, development of strategic sectors, removal of certain tax loopholes …).

The Socialist candidate has also confirmed its intention to bring the public accounts in balance in 2017, through increased levies on businesses and wealthier households, as well as via a public expenditure control. Confirming that an effort would be de facto called on business, without raising disapproval in the audience, he said he was ready to "deal individually" each boss in the room who would care

.

Francois Hollande also recognizes a problem of labor costs in France in some sectors, particularly in relation to Germany. But he believes that cost almost the same on both sides of the Rhine in the manufacturing industry. Consequently, he criticizes "the so-called social VAT" the President has enacted before the end of the legislature: a measure "unjust, ineffective and inconsistent." He said the social VAT will have only a modest effect on exports as it will particularly benefit sectors not exposed to competition.

"There's a bidding war right now"

Only novelty of the discourse of the socialist candidate: the proposal for implementation of a "national pact of competitiveness" that would combine the State, enterprises, social partners and also, perhaps, the financial system quick cash. All this small world would agree to set "goals of competitiveness," which could exceed the cap of a five-year term. "The State would be to set the vision, through taxation, regulation, avoiding social change all the time and especially in the last week of five-year," said Francois Hollande.

The former head of PS is also expressed in two recent tax measures unveiled by Nicolas Sarkozy. Minimum taxes on corporations that do not pay taxes in France? This provision would penalize, he said, companies that have decided to keep their headquarters in France. It was much more verbose, and verve, on the taxation of tax exiles made Monday night on TF1 by the Head of State.

"There's a bidding war right now," he quips, perhaps in reference to his own project to tax at 75% on incomes above one million euros per year. "Whether the measure is an illusion because ultimately, if it does not apply to artists, athletes and those who put their heritage in the countries concerned, it's about that? Only those who have capital income?, He tried. Or the measurement is much stronger and the question of the overall tax exile and assume it all to negotiate tax treaties with the countries concerned. "

Lapidary conclusion: "I feel that right now there is a candidate who will do anything except renegotiate the treaty has been signed." Francois Hollande has indeed drawn the ire of Nicolas Sarkozy, to want to add a component on the growth of fiscal discipline pact, signed but not ratified by European states. "I leave you with this judgment on how to campaign," decide the favorite in the polls.

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2011 a year full of contrasts in terms of employment. After a positive first half, payroll employment has declined significantly over the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the French economy has destroyed 22,600 jobs in the principally market sectors (-0.1% over the previous quarter), according to revised figures released Thursday by INSEE.

This is slightly less than the third quarter, when for the first time in two years, the statistician public records a decline in employment of 31,500 jobs (-0.2%). Gave its provisional figures until the third quarter slightly creates jobs. With a dynamic first half, 67,300 jobs have been created, however, over one year is a positive trend of 0.4%.  

The ACOSS, which accounts for job creation on a slightly different scope, in turn finds a changing "stable in the last quarter as in the previous quarter, after five consecutive quarters of increases," with 9,300 jobs created. Both agencies agree on a shift in the trend in the second half, where the employment has clearly stalled.

Temporary employment down

Over 90% of job losses announced by INSEE also follows the decline in temporary employment fast cash without a hassle. The trend is accelerating in the fourth quarter, with 21,100 destroyed in acting positions, against 12,900 the previous quarter. A first after nine quarters of the rise, INSEE said. This leading indicator of labor market, more sensitive to cyclical fluctuations, does not bode well from the beginning of 2012.

In detail on this last quarter, the industry, which had suffered severely from the crisis of 2008-2009 before stabilizing its workforce in mid 2011, again losing 1700 jobs, slightly less than the third quarter (5100) . Over one year, the sector recorded a negative trend of 0.1%, or 2,100 jobs destroyed.

This is less than the construction, which lost 0.8% of its workforce over one year (11,900 jobs) and 0.3% in the fourth quarter (4600 positions). After a decline in service employment excluding temporary in the third quarter, the industry found in the fourth quarter, however a small increase (4,900 jobs).

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Rarely have there been a fear of unemployment too high (one third of the French fear of being unemployed in the coming months) coincide with proposals also limited in terms of job candidates in the presidential election.

Apart from generation contracts (with uncertain effects) of Francois Hollande, antidélocalisation VAT (which will particularly benefit the jobs are not exposed to international competition) by Nicolas Sarkozy, or the prohibition of redundancies (fantastic in a global economy ) by Jean-Luc Melenchon, the impétrants at the Elysee do not shine with the inventiveness of their proposals. Everything happens as if in fact the only social issue of this campaign was beginning to worry about the plight of factory workers in difficulty: Lejaby, Petroplus, Photowatt, ArcelorMittal … to name those "lucky" to one of the 20 hours. So much so that outgoing President announced that a buyer or a command Unexpected unexpected, the Socialist candidate responds by passing a law requiring an industrial facility to the closing yield. Syndrome Jospin, powerless anger of employees in 2002 by Lu who accused him of doing nothing to save them, has been there

.

These employees are far from being the most deprived. From large groups who fulfill their obligations reclassification or revitalization (and often sign large checks start), they are part of the iceberg. Registration for employment center after a redundancy no longer represent each month that 2.9% of input patterns. Contrary to popular belief, their numbers fell 3.4% in 2011 to 14,000 per month. All also receive a contract security professional (CSP), ensuring a strengthened support and 100% of their net salary for a year.

This double "deluxe treatment" (media and procedural) for the CSD and interim would like to also benefit. First variable adjustment of the workforce in the companies they represent one third of entries each month at employment center (or 150,000 people) and are not entitled to a CSP in 15 experimental and employment areas. And, in an envelope limited to less than 20,000 contracts this year. 5 times less than for retrenched when they are 10 times more each month to bear the brunt of the crisis. In factories or elsewhere

.

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Sluggish start to the year for consumers. The French have reduced their spending by 0.4% in January, reports the INSEE. In December, consumption had fallen by 0.2%, a figure revised up 0.5 point. Compared to January 2011, consumption fell 2.2%.

Household spending fell in virtually all sectors. In particular, they continued to crumble in clothing (-2.3%), despite the sales and after falling 1.7% in December.

This is especially the collapse of automobile purchases by 7.6% in January from 2.8% in December, which sealed the figure released today. Registrations have also unscrewed 20.7% compared with January 2011. "Households may indeed have anticipated their purchases of cars face of tougher no-claims bonus on 1st January 2012," INSEE advance.  

Among the few sectors rising, the food recovers (1.4%), after declining steadily over the past six months. "This decline is expected to continue as households are turning to cheaper goods in shops cheaper", the BNP Paribas economists. Energy costs have in turn bounced (2%) with the return of cold. This trend should continue and thus provide some support consumption in February, economists expect Societe Generale CIB.

Rising unemployment and uncertainties related to the crisis in the euro area seem to continue to weigh on household spending. This traditional driver of French growth had stalled in 2011, dropping by 0.5% over the year.

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Friday night to Saturday was quieter at the meeting, but the measures in favor of Purchasing Power announced Friday night failed to extinguish the fire of protest against the "cost of living." Among the nudges forward, lower gasoline prices, freezing or lower prices of 40 basic commodities, and a social tariff for electricity.

Measures "insufficient" and "incomplete," according to the protesters. The meeting recorded an unemployment rate of 20% to 60% and explodes for youth under 25. Social minima are the same in the mainland but the cost of living is more expensive.

• Decreased 8 cents per liter of petrol and diesel

From 1 March until the end of the year, the price of gasoline at the pump will be reduced by 8 cents per liter. The question of fuel is essential for Reunion, forced to move by car or scooter as public transport is scarce and disorganized. In the department, a liter of gasoline costs 1.66 Unleaded 95 euro more than the French average of 1.58 euro (absolute record at February 17, 2012), but the diesel will cost "only" 1.29 (1.42 against euro on average throughout France).

Each month, fuel prices at the Meeting are set by prefectural order, depending on the variation in supply costs. This discount of eight cents and will be decided each month and achieved through a reduction of taxation. It will be financed by a renunciation of communities and the Chamber of Commerce to certain taxes, while importers of petroleum products will agree an effort.  

In France, for every liter of gasoline paid, the TIPP (domestic tax on petroleum products) is 60 cents for Unleaded and 42 cents for diesel. In some cases – this is the meeting – a fraction of the TIPP has been attributed to the regions, which may modulate the rate. Moreover, the prefect wants the establishment of a new storage of fuels, to create competition against the monopoly of the single fuel distribution company on the island.

In addition, the UMP president of the regional council, Didier Robert, will remove the "dock dues" on fuel, local taxes related 24 million euros per year, collected by the Region and then shared with other communities.

• Gel or lower prices for basic commodities

The price of forty staples will be either a decline or a gel. The list will be developed with retailers and consumers and published Thursday.

The council said that among these products, there would be "ten countries products, that is to say, as locally produced milk, oil, diapers, bleach, pork or chicken, which decline by 20 to 30%. " An effort of 23 million euros for this community, chaired by Nassimah Dindar, who is also counting on an effort by producers. Negotiations should continue throughout the weekend.

At the meeting, the social minima are the same in the mainland. Among the 830,000 inhabitants on the island, 52% live below the poverty line, or with less than 795 euros. 20% are unemployed. Among youth under 25%, the unemployment rate explodes to 60%. Now the population is young at the meeting: 56% had less than thirty years. However, prices of consumer goods, from food to clothing, there are more expensive than in the mainland, since most are imported. According to figures from INSEE, prices in 2009 were 15.6% higher at the meeting in the mainland. In 2010, the gap narrowed to 12.4%, for an average consumer basket, including rent. By comparison, in Guadeloupe, prices are 14.8% higher on average than in metropolitan France (in 2010), 16.9% more expensive in Martinique and 19.6% in Guyana.

• A social tariff for electricity

The effort on the forehead of electricity would represent a decrease of about 40% of the invoice concerned Reunion. The prefect said the families receiving the minimum social wage and minimum wage up to 1.4 are affected by this social tariff. These rates apply EDF funded by the General Council.

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