Sundial of world news

The CAC 40 is increased again this Friday, after playing the card of caution on Friday until 14:30 time of publication of U.S. GDP worse than expected.

The CAC 40 has lost more than 1% up shortly after the announcement of a U.S. economic growth of 2.4% against 2.5% expected, the index rolled up the slope and pierced the waterline to increase to 17 hours from 0.66% to 3676 points. An evolution that follows the trend taking place today on Wall Street.

The reason? A Chicago PMI, which increased more than expected and U.S. consumer confidence down, but less than expected.

Publication Burst

Alcatel Lucent (8.27 to 2.24 euros%) announced revenues of 3.813 billion euros in the second quarter.The group reiterated its outlook for 2010, including an Adjusted operating income of between 1% and 5% of its revenues.

JCDecaux (1.16% to 20.10 euros) on Friday announced a net profit in the first half of 65 million euros. The group anticipates a change in organic revenue for the third quarter less than that of the second with a cash flow of 119 million euros, compared with -1.7 million euros in the first half.

Lafarge (-4.75% to 41.43 euros) has reported a sales increase of 2% to 4.43 billion euros in the second quarter. The company expects a reduction in capital expenditure to less than 1 billion euros in 2011.

EDF (1% to 32.80 euros) announced a net income Group share 1.7 billion euros including a provision for $ 1.1 billion on its North American operations.The group, which should sell its UK electricity networks based on an enterprise value of over 5.5 billion pounds, has announced a delay of two years for his BDU Flamanville.

EADS (2.70% to 18.06 euros) announces a net profit in the first half of 185 million euros and a turnover of 20.3 billion euros.

Schneider Electric (2.14% to 88.25 euros) publishes a turnover of 8.57 billion euros in the first half (+10.5%) of which 4.661 billion (+18.5%) in the second . In an interview with Le Figaro, Jean-Pascal Tricoire, CEO, set an improvement for the second part of the year.

Renault (0.28% to 33.74 euros) issued a revenue increase of 23.1% for the first semester in the same area, to 19.668 billion euros.The constructor returns to the green with profits of 823 million euros.

The reaction of Peugeot (-2.23% to 22.61 euros) will be observed.Also in the automotive industry, Michelin (-1.40% to 58.52 euros) announced a net profit in the first half and said it expects a continued rebound in demand for tires in the second half of the year .

PPR (-0.34% to 102 euros) has announced a net profit after minority interests rose 86.8% to 407 million euros in the first half.

Imerys (+0.27% at 44.59 euros) has reported a net operating income rose sharply to 122 million euros in the first half with a turnover of organic growth of 16%.

Total (1.30% to 38.85 euros) announced adjusted net income for the second quarter of 3 billion euros, up 72%.

CNP Assurances (EUR 15.45 -4.01%) has published a net increase of 8% to 542 million euros and a turnover of 17.697 million euros (+2.4%).

Rhodia (1.14% to 15.93 euros) raised again after its 2010 targets announced Friday results exceeded expectations in the second quarter.

Saint Gobain is optimistic

Saint-Gobain (-2.16% to 32.57 euros) reported a strong rebound in its first half results, while confirming its target of strong growth in operating earnings in 2010.

Capgemini (-1.29% to 35.88 euros) has announced the acquisition of the Swedish IT services Skvader Systems. No financial details were disclosed.

Air Liquide (-0.81% to 85.40 euros) has announced the acquisition of the company Lion Copolymer Geismar American Services.No financial details were disclosed.

Euler Hermes (4.94% to 61.40 euros) has reported net profit more than doubled in the second quarter from the first and said he intended to maintain profitability in a more favorable macroeconomic environment that over the past two years.

Ingenico (5.28% to 19.45 euros) on Thursday posted a net profit increased more than two in the first half thanks to increased transactions in Europe and raised its sales target.

Alten (-0.49% to 22.29 euros) has reported a slight improvement in activity in its sector in the first half. Turnover increased 2.7% to 450.9 million euros over the period.

Flo (-3.7% to 4.43 euros) said that the activity in its restaurants had not yet regained the level that was hers before the crisis, despite the reduction in VAT.The turnover of the group stood in the first half rose 7.6%.

Danone raised its sales growth target for 2010 after the publication of its results for the first half Tuesday. The group recorded an increase in its turnover by 7% over the period (6.9% in the second quarter) to 8.364 billion euros. Danone now expects growth in sales of "at least 6%," cons "at least 5%" previously.

Current operating margin stood at 15.30% in the first half, against 16.03% over the same period in 2009. The band announced target for the whole year stable margins on a comparable basis compared to 2009. The operating profit amounted to 1.28 billion (against 1.2 in the first half of 2009).

The current net profit climbed 10.1% to 848 million euros.

Danone also aims to increase free cash flow from operations of at least 10% compared to 2009 historical data.

"A good start to the year"

Group CEO, Franck Riboud, speaking of a "good start to the year" and that Danone announces in particular will continue "to invest in developing countries, products and brands with strong potential: Child Nutrition in Asia, the Fresh Dairy division in United States, Brazil, Russia.

"At the same time, he adds, we are continuing our efforts to improve productivity, essential to cope with the volatility of our raw materials." Third key point, Franck Riboud said that "cash generation continues to grow strongly."

The decision of the Central Bank of China down 0.12% Monday from the central rate of its currency, to bring it back to 6.78 yuan per dollar, is not trivial. It confirms that China believes that the resumption of the global economy is "very slow" in the words of his prime minister, Wen Jiabao.

Since June 19 last, the central rate of RMB, yuan's other name, is fixed daily by the bank that leaves fluctuate within a margin of plus or minus 0.5% vis-à-vis the greenback. Then she had gained 0.8% since that date, the Chinese currency fell Monday to its lowest level in two weeks, to 6.78 yuan per dollar.

The government fully controls the growth of his country. The measures taken to avoid overheating, especially in real estate, have borne fruit. The GDP (gross domestic product) grew by only Chinese 10.3% in the second quarter, against 11.9% in the first.

Wen Jiabao welcomes it, but he believes that his country because of "uncertainties" facing the world must "increase domestic demand, while stabilizing the foreign demand." But Monday, the State Information Center, an organization that depends on the Reform Commission and National Development, released a report which estimates that the growth of Chinese exports in the second half of this year will not exceed 16 3% by volume, against a leap of 35% for the first six months of the year. It does not explain its calculation, but it is clear that it expects a slowdown in trade flows in the world.It probably also fear the consequences of wage increases in Chinese enterprises on the competitiveness of the country pay day advance.

"We will pursue a fiscal policy that anticipates events and a lax monetary policy remains appropriately," recalled last week Wen Jiabao on the occasion of the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And to reaffirm its confidence in the euro area stressing that China was keen to diversify its huge foreign exchange reserves (2454 billion in late June) by buying other currencies than the dollar, Japanese yen and the euro particular.

Strong pressure

But the Chinese are concerned. The decline in consumer prices in the U.S. in June for the third consecutive month, makes them fear a risk of deflation in the U.S..Deflation, which leads consumers to indefinitely postpone their purchases and that discourages entrepreneurs from investing.

Beijing knows that long-term revaluation of the yuan will allow its exporters to improve the management of their enterprises to go upmarket and strengthen their competitiveness. This is the speech that he held the Americans and Europeans that add such an operation will also contribute to "reduce inflationary pressures from outside."

But in the short term the Chinese authorities think that the pressures are too strong. So, although it continues to assert that it will maintain a "regime of managed floating exchange rate, the speculation began to say that it will limit increases its currency to protect its exporters.

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Moody's has struck again. This time, the rating agency downgraded the credit rating assigned to the public debt of Ireland two notches to Aa2 from Aa1. The agency now shows a stable outlook, while they were negative before.

Moody's analysts explain this degradation by three factors. They rely on "the gradual loss and significant financial strength of the Irish government illustrated by rising deficits and the weakening of the country's repayment capacity." Growth prospects also weakened justify the gesture of the agency. The agency believes that the burden of debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to stabilize around 95% to 100% within two to three years. Finally, doubts about the soundness of the banking system, following numerous recapitalizations of businesses have also influenced Moody's.The agency has referred to the substantial liabilities arising from the establishment of the NAMA (National Asset Management), a defeasance bank (or bank rotten ") service, which has to buy the Irish banks Tens of billions of subprime loans that they had accumulated before the credit crisis.

A budget deficit higher than that of Greece

In 2009, the budget deficit of Ireland, 14.3% of GDP was highest in the euro area, even superior to that of Greece, suffered a severe debt crisis. The Irish public debt has soared from 25% of GDP at end 2007 to 65% in late 2009.

Moody's has recently made several other cuts of notes on debt.The sovereign rating of Portugal has been degraded to A1 AA2 cons last week because of growth prospects remain relatively low and a deteriorating financial situation. Following the degradation cascade, investors may be less attentive to agency decisions.

The situation is now clarified. The U.S. company Electronic Arts, publisher of The Sims and sports games like Fifa 10, announced Friday the sale of its share of almost 15% in Ubisoft Entertainment, the leading European video games. According to Reuters, the Swiss bank UBS have been mandated to oversee the operation.

"Electronic Arts (EA) has decided to sell its stake in Ubisoft Entertainment. Our strategic priorities have changed since the initial investment, "said a spokesman for the American group in Europe, in an email sent to news agencies.

Returning to the capital of Ubisoft in 2004 through an unsolicited transaction, the Californian publisher therefore gives up its largest shareholder at the Guillemot family which owned 11.3% stake in European company in May, according to data from Thomson Reuters . Electronic Arts, meanwhile, held 14.82% stake in Ubisoft.

Electronic Arts refocuses its strategy

The American, whose sales have shrunk in late 2009, still on track to reducing costs and streamlining its business. Electronic Arts had already announced it will cut 1,500 jobs in November, and its intention to focus on fewer games. He also wants to expand its content and services online. By disengaging from Ubisoft, the group shows that this participation was more strategic for him, but merely financial.

The news did not surprise analysts sphere. Asked by Reuters, Richard Beaudoux, analyst at Natixis Securities value, said that Electronic Arts "has probably said it was an opportune time to clarify his situation.Last March, the voting rights of the American group had declined due to internal redeployment from 23.5% to 13.2%, said the analyst, for whom this "already showed that (Electronic Arts, Ed) sought to sell its " bad credit payday loans.

Situation clarified for Ubisoft

For Ubisoft, the announcement is good news, said Richard Beaudoux. The European publisher never managed to agree on strategy or on a redemption price, he said. The departure from Electronic Arts releases is the situation. Ubisoft and thus finds greater liquidity and freedom of decision in its strategy, concludes the analyst Natixis Securities.

If Electronic Arts shareholder seemed natural to Ubisoft, the disengagement of American might allow other investors to take a closer look at Ubisoft, says a trader.The Disney group or investment fund Elevation Partners are among the names of potential investors cited regularly.

"We wanted to stay independent"

"It's rather good news for us since we wanted to stay independent," a spokesman assured Ubisoft AFP. The latter did not say who would the purchaser of such shares or the amount and date of the transaction.

Ubisoft therefore creates a surprise for the second time this week. The video game publisher announced Tuesday a turnover of 160 million euros for its first quarter of 2010-2011 (April-June), up 93%. A performance well above its own expectations. Around 3:00 p.m. this Friday, Ubisoft's action, however, lost 1.32% to 6.88 euros.

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The word "low cost" is less and less taboo at PSA Peugeot Citroen. In early May, Philippe Varin, the boss of the manufacturer, said that the group "did not rule out being on the low-cost one day." He said: "If this were the case, it would not be with our two brands."

So far, the group said informally that such a vehicle was considered only for Asia. But on Wednesday, on the occasion of the presentation of business results of the first half, Jean-Marc Gales, director of Peugeot and Citroen, has taken a new step.It does not mark a low cost, the third group, is distributed in Western Europe, even if the device has not "yet been decided" for the continent.

Chinese Partner

"If we did, and I say this in the conditional, a car really low-cost, it would necessarily under a different brand and obviously with a different distribution method, which could be" completely different and very creative, "he said, citing sales via "Internet". No matter under him from selling such vehicle in a Peugeot or Citroen dealership, and therefore to take the risk of blurring the image of two brands that are trying to go upmarket.

Asked about the possibility of building such a vehicle with a Chinese partner, Jean-Marc Gales said "one could imagine many things" with these manufacturers credit reports free.PSA, which has already formed a joint venture in the Middle Kingdom, will sign one second Friday with Changan, fulfilling a letter of intent.

Meanwhile, the group develops a medium sedan declined under the Peugeot and Citroën, which will be for the "heart of the range" of emerging countries. Production will be initially located in Spain. In the same logic, PSA works in partnership with Japan's Mitsubishi, with a small entry level car for these markets.

At the last general meeting of the group in early June, Philippe Varin had hammered this sedan designed for emerging markets was neither low-cost, or intended to Western Europe.More broadly, he appeared to reject the principle of marketing a low-cost model in Europe: "If a low-cost means low-end model, manufactured in low cost countries and for Europe to the West, while the group is not on the low-cost, had he stressed.

Given the success of Dacia, the Romanian brand Renault, which has exceeded 5% market share in France, the Lion is now considering actually in the parade.

Perhaps fears about the monthly employment figures expected with apprehension before market are already partly integrated into the course. The Dow Jones gained in effect to 15.45, 0.36% to 9767 points, the Nasdaq advance from 0.08% to 2103 points and the S & P 500 rose 0.24% to 1030 points.

The American economy has destroyed 125,000 non-agricultural jobs in June against 110,000 planned. This is the first time since the beginning of the year that the U.S. economy is destroying jobs and the number of registered job destruction last month was the highest since October 2009.

The private sector has created 83,000 jobs, however, against 33,000 in May and 112,000 expected by the market. Despite the job losses recorded in the month, the unemployment rate of 9.5% in June, its lowest level since July 2009, against 9.7% in May Economists expected a rate of 9.8%.

The figures, preliminary unemployment weekly published Thursday, however, very disappointed. "For three months, enrollment weekly unemployment are the yo-yo around a trend average of 462,000, economists are of Oddo Securities. The dismissal of the enumerators of the population, down sharply in June (see Chart 3 above), could affect these results, but, anyway, the job recovery seems decidedly weak. "

Europe and China in the minds

If the relatively low funding requests from European banks with the ECB reassured yesterday, the threat of a downgrading of the rate of Spain by Moody's, the clouds that accumulate on the growing global concern, however, more than never the United States.Several indicators, unemployment and housing U.S., in fact, yesterday, had a marked fall in European markets, while Wall Street has finally, paradoxically, proved to be more combative resistance payday loan lenders. The weakening of the greenback against the euro is perhaps helped. The late publication of monthly sales of car manufacturers, sharp rise, too.The sixth meeting of decline has been less severe than expected, the Dow ended down 0.42% to 9732 points and the Nasdaq fell 0.37% to 2101 points.

While the downward revision of growth prospects of China Conference Board had, following a calculation error, contributing to a decline in the markets earlier this week, China could reassure the contrary on Friday: it comes into effect to announce the revision of the growth of its gross domestic product from 2009 to 9.1% against a previous estimate of 8.7%.

Google buys ITA

As for values, Jeffrey Immelt, the head of U.S. conglomerate General Electric, has accused China to show hostility towards foreign companies, said Friday the Financial Times (FT), pushing the group to say that his comments had been distorted.The share lost 0.14% to 14.10 dollars.

The engine rechercheGoogle (-0.47% to 437.43 dollars) has announced the acquisition of ITA, a company specializing in information on air transport.

The publisher of games for iPhone Tapulous announced Thursday that he was bought by media giant Disney (+0.32% to 31.59 dollars) to become "leader in mobile entertainment." The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Sanofi-Aventis (-2.24% to 29.70 dollars) on Friday refused to comment on information from Bloomberg that the French pharmaceutical group preparing to acquire a U.S. company a value of at least 20 billion dollars. Allergan (6.88% to 62.10 dollars) and Biogen (6.70% to 49.86 dollars) are cited as potential targets

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – After having doubted the ability of countries to cope with budget deficits, the markets are concerned now plans rigorously implemented by European states. Are they become schizophrenic?

Eric Bleine – I do not know if we can speak of schizophrenia, but I find the reactions of financial markets is excessive. This is not surprising when one considers that most large companies in the CAC 40 are majority owned by U.S. pension funds, and increasingly by players from emerging markets. If individuals are continuing to ignore the actions, it will increase, and financial markets continue to be volatile. In this context, I advise investors to focus on their process of investment. In other words, to believe in what they do and do not move during moments of extreme doubt.It is when the visibility is poor economy and financial and prices of listed assets are low it takes to earn money. The doubts the current market is understandable but exaggerated. He should know how to take them by buying now, taking as a necessary condition to have investment horizons reasonable (between 18 months and 3 years) does not get into the position of having to liquidate its portfolio under stress specific personal.

European equities are they really excluded?

Financial markets have still not integrated as European companies are financially sound, well managed despite the crisis and they have high margins and refinanced debt. The euro zone is not in a situation so bad as that.The proof that more than European ones, are also international companies which derive a substantial part of its sales in the U.S. or in emerging countries. If fears about the euro area are so important is because pension funds are selling their fears, "the fear". What explains this high volatility. But I guess they will stop selling because valuation levels as low and reassuring news that we are beginning to have on the sustainability of our currency, the euro.

How do you manage the allocation of your portfolio between defensive stocks and cyclical stocks?

Overall, I'm quite recently strengthened financial securities in defensive stocks. I have preferences for certain banking stocks and am overweight, representing 18% of portfolio value Central.Despite the pressure around these companies, the current prices seem particularly attractive and excessive criticism. We focus on the big European banks such as BNP Paribas, Santander, Intesa, UniCredit, Deutsche Bank or Barclays. They are strong and come out winners in my opinion this crisis, the market does not take into account.

It is a rather surprising position in the current context. Other atypical cyclical stocks?

Yes, because we are also overweighted car values (5.32% of portfolio) as DaimlerChrysler, Faurecia and Michelin. For example, Michelin will benefit from new standards that will enable tire manufacturers to sell products with high added values.Furthermore, we focus Faurecia, because we believe that Faurecia has good chances of success in China by supporting the rise of automobile manufacturers in emerging countries

I'm also positive and closer to consensus on technology stocks (11.55% of portfolio) invested with Atos, Steria, STMicroelectronics. There is a real demand for computer services and technology assets. Finally, I like also valued as Lufthansa is one of the few aerospace companies to have limited its losses in 2008 and which we believe will be winners of an industry concentration. However, although it benefits from the dollar, we excluded EADS for which we still have some reservations.

A second half what should we expect?

We look forward to a calmer second half versus the first.We're going out of concerns about the sustainability of the euro area and the ability of states to refinance. The fears will gradually dissipate and the risk premium with them. This should drive us as a first step to a CAC 40-3800 points. Then the market should realize that the growth of European countries will not be as catastrophe we would suggest. This gives a potential ACC 40-4000 points, why not towards the end of the year. With the portfolio that I currently constituted, I am ready for the increase in ACC 40.

Will it happen to food packaging, plastic chairs or bumper? The Federation of plastics, which brings together producers of plastic products, is sounding the alarm. "This is a situation unprecedented in the plastic. Our suppliers of polymers evoke technical reasons, cases of "force majeure" and do not honor their deliveries, "said Bruno Etienne, its president.

He complains of the total opacity surrounding the subject. In less than three months, the phenomenon has spread to most chemists. In a letter to his clients, a leading industry refers to "a situation of force majeure for a mechanical problem. A spokesman said "not able to comment in the present context," adding that the group has written to its customers and does not give more details.Rhodia did not wish either to speak on this subject, nor the Union of Basic Organic Chemistry (SCOBA). PlasticsEurope, an association of European producers of plastics, boot button: "The problem of availability of raw materials is not limited to plastics, but is much broader. Polypropylene is most affected. "

A response that plastics companies deny. "There is still some time, the European plants polymers suffered from overcapacity. They could even export to China. Does it change? "Asks Bruno Estienne. He wondered if a half-word part of European production is shipped to China, to the detriment of businesses he represents.The producers of polymers are in fact, in their majority, started in the construction of production units of polymers in Asia, but all are not yet operational. This theory has a flaw: the prices of plastics in China are structurally lower than those in Europe, where prices through May rose by an average of 70% over one year.

However, in 2009, production fell by 20% and has increased by 9% during the first four months of the year."Some factories were closed in 2009, and the groups are reluctant to reopen them," said Jean-Marc Manducher, CEO Ronax, a buying group that has identified eight cases of force majeure in a few months! In addition, the European prudential standards discourage the restart of some production units.

SMEs under pressure

"We are caught between the chemists in our principals," said Bruno Etienne, who wishes to hold a roundtable meeting to identify the difficulties currently crossed by the industry and evaluate the time needed to return to normal.

If the survival of businesses does not seem threatened, some are already struggling. One example for manufacturers of garden furniture, whose business is seasonal excellence, and whose unfilled orders will not be caught.T automobile sector is also likely to be affected, if manufacturers of technical parts (bumpers, interior trim parts in engines) are not promptly supplied.

The alerts about the financial health of Spain were further strengthened Wednesday after the revelations of the Spanish newspaper El Economista. According to business daily, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are preparing a rescue plan for Spain, providing a credit line of between 200 and 250 billion euros. The announcement of a forthcoming call for help had already returned insistently in recent days in the German press. Information that Brussels and the IMF have strongly denied Wednesday.

The announcement of a visit by IMF Managing Director, scheduled for Friday, has added to the panic. Although Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Wednesday in Paris that it was only "a working visit". To cut short the rumors, general manager told AFP he goes to all European countries."I'm in France, is there any rumors in France? I'm going to Italy. Is there any rumors in Italy? "He also downplayed the financial problems of Spain at a conference on Europe and China:" It is also said to exaggerate it a country that has great difficulty and yet the debt is 53% of GDP, which is relatively modest. "

Labour Market Reform

The Spanish head of government has also applied to reassure. Spain is a "country solvent, solid, strong and with the international credit, said Wednesday Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero before the Spanish Parliament. The Economy Minister Elena Salgado for his part denied that Brussels has put pressure on Madrid. Support for the Spanish cause is from Paris."We see no reason to be concerned for Spain, and there is no subject in the Spanish agenda of the European Council, it was said at the Elysee.

These multiple statements have not been enough to calm markets that have remained very nervous. The Spanish rate in a decade rose 10 points in the day 4.8%, approaching levels Portuguese. The yield spread between German and Spanish titles to ten years to 223 basis points on Wednesday, a record, as investors consider the Spanish debt more risky. The motion of no confidence falls ill in Madrid, which must issue this morning 3.5 billion euros of bonds to ten years.

The concern of the market relates to both the country's financial situation and the capacity of economic recovery.The government on Wednesday passed a labor reform, considered essential for revitalizing the job but remains highly contested by the unions.

In a report released Wednesday, the Bank of Spain insists on the need to implement "as quickly as possible" of economic adjustment measures to increase the competitiveness of the economy Hispanic counter the drop in employment and deterioration public finances. But the Spanish savings banks, the Achilles heel of the banking sector, require 11 billion euros to the state for further restructuring.

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