Sundial of world news

France has not lost fiscal credibility in one night: the election of Francois Hollande suddenly does not make the country less able to finance its debt. While remembering not to take any "political position" is the message that wished to address the rating agency Standard & Poor's Monday morning, issuing a statement saying that the memo from France – "AA +" with perspective negative – was not challenged.

"We still believe there is at least one in three chance that we may need to lower the long-term rating of France this year or in 2013," says S & P, however, with regard to finances public.

Test market 16 May

In its statement, the agency says it will "analyze the choice of new president and new government" and take into account in any future decision on the outcome of the June elections payday advances.

The next auction of debt, which will be held Thursday, May 16, should serve as a real test markets. It is at this moment that we will know if investor demand to fund the French debt is as important as ever.

At the Agence France Trésor (AFT), we simply note that Monday morning, "the 10-year yield continues to relax"

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The ras-le-bol rises among users of TGV Nantes / Angers / Le Mans / Paris. And also the response … The members of the collective defense of Subscribers Line Atlantic (Ladala) took a new step in their protest movement against the repeated delays of the station, on the line leading to the capital. The trick to reach the railway portfolio. To do this, they have not hesitated to launch a "ghost TGV" massively by booking every seat of a TGV line in question. Of seats they will not play of course. Each member buying between 5 and 10 seats, 800 seats have already been blocked, all classes, as pointed out this morning on RTL Pascal Mignot, the representative of the collective.

Reaction except the SNCF, the train should travel empty, which would result in a serious shortfall. Because the protesters are concerned subscribers, a status that gives them access to places for a mere $ 1.50. And the date chosen is not trivial since the 250 members of Ladala have set Wednesday, May 16, the eve of Ascension Day and the weekend so great starts.

Greece of tickets

This is not the first time Ladala tries to voice his displeasure. Mid-March, the group had launched a strike of tickets and passes, along with daily rallies in trains and on platforms. Faced with the continuing delays and lack of financial consequences for the SNCF, the association thus increases the pressure, also taking on its website a statement of the duration of the movement, and delays on this line.

Faced with the accumulation of failures since the schedule changes in December 2011, their demands are clear: rate freeze on packages (over 500 euros per month), on-time to avoid disputes with employers, indemnity 2.5 euros per 10 minutes late, and got 150 euro for subscribers to compensate for failures of January, February and March. In total, officials estimate that the collective duration of 14 hours cumulative delays over this period.

Side of the Authority of the quality of service in transport (AQST, dependent on the Ministry of Ecology), although the figures show a surge in failures since November, with up to 30% of trains delayed . But since February, the trend seems to be improving. Apparently not enough to calm those subscribers, still wearing a badge "subscribers on strike," which also launched an online petition and sent a letter to presidential candidates. Denouncing a 18% increase in travel time on an ordinary trip to Le Mans / Paris, they have finally created a Twitter account inviting followers to list all the failures of the Atlantic line. An initiative that has been emulated the Creusot subscribers and Amiens have since joined the movement.

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The main presidential candidates have one thing in common: they announce tax increases for years to come. None of them claim to return to zero deficit by cutting public expenditure only: they know that the remedy would be too much for the French social model. In addition, candidates are aware that economic growth alone will not fill the public coffers.

On this point, economists are even more cautious. Nicolas Sarkozy expects a GDP growth of 2% from 2014, Francois Hollande 2% in 2014 and 2.25% thereafter. "It would be wiser to predict growth of 1.5%," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. "And above all, to the same level, growth will generate less tax revenues spontaneously that during the expansion phase of pre-2007", warning Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE.

Mechanically, when the GDP is up, after the mandatory deductions. More profit, this means more corporate tax (IS), higher wages, better social security contributions and income tax (IR), etc.. But according to the type of growth, the correlation is stronger or weaker.

The economy of the early 2000s, characterized by a housing boom, was particularly conducive to tax revenue. And transfer taxes, a tax on real estate transactions, they reported to local authorities 9.6 billion in 2007, against 4.7 billion in 2000. The revenues of the ISF have almost doubled (2.2 billion in 2000, 4 billion in 2007). "Growth was also driven by household spending. A boon to the State whose main tax, VAT, sits on consumption, "adds Jean-Christophe Caffet. Finally, the SI was doped up to 2007 by record profits of banks. In a 2008 report, Philippe Marini, then general reporter (UMP) of the Senate Finance Committee, spoke of the hypothesis of a "bubble" of € 10 billion on tax burden.

"Adjustment Period"

A bubble that broke with the financial crisis. Scarce, taxes and social contributions decreased in 2009. The IS has collapsed, yielding 21 billion in 2009 against 51 billion in 2007. Since then, the tax burden returned to their pre-crisis level, with the exception of the SI (39 billion in 2011). "But if there had been no crisis, levies would exceed 23 billion that they are today. There is indeed a structural loss of revenue, "said Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC.

In addition, revenues will not recover their train of yesteryear. "The growth model due to housing boom and strong consumer is finished. We have entered a period of adjustment, where wages will rise slightly. VAT, transfer duties, but also social contributions will grow less quickly, "said Jean-Christophe Caffet. So over the spontaneous surge of revenues, as before 2007. That's why taxpayers are involved since 2010. And if the economic growth forecast by the candidates was not at the rendezvous, higher taxes might be higher than 50 billion program of Francois Hollande and 16 billion provided by Nicolas Sarkozy.

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France is already the "spoils" of foreign tourists, with 77 million international visitors in 2010, according to World Tourism Organization (WTO). And to remain so, she can count on its approximately 50,000 religious buildings (monasteries, abbeys, cathedrals, churches, synagogues, mosques, etc ….) that attract more and more tourists, especially during holidays such as Easter or All Saints . But not only. "There is definitely a trend in favor of deep spiritual tourism," says Geraldine Bale, president of the association Sanctuaries Cities in France, which includes 15 sites of pilgrimage including Lourdes, Mont Saint-Michel, Chartres, Lisieux or Vézelay ( Yonne). The increase in attendance of these sanctuaries is stable for several years, the range of 5 to 10% per year depending on the site.

The Sanctuary of Lourdes. Photo Credits: Richard VIALERON / Le Figaro

The gas leak that caused the evacuation of 238 people on the platform of Total Elgin in the North Sea, 240 km east of Aberdeen in Scotland, still has a risk of explosion.

The BBC said that the flare used to burn non-exploitable gas was left burning on the Elgin platform, despite the risks involved with all the gas that is brought to the surface. A surprising situation, considering that the oil company has yet taken every precaution to avoid an explosion, especially by cutting the current on the farm. A spokesman for Total, quoted by the BBC, ensures that risks are limited, since the flare is 90 m high and the winds are favorable, causing the gas cloud in the right direction.

Preston Martin, an expert in marine pollution at the University of Liverpool, in turn ensures the BBC that the explosion risks persist and that "nobody will be able to approach the platform as the flare is lit . As it burns, they will have to find a plan B, "he said.

The director of health, safety and environment at Total, David Hainsworth, also acknowledged that a risk of explosion existed.

The flare is not supplied with gas, and had decreased in size Tuesday night. It can not be turned off remotely, but should eventually go out of itself, according to the spokesman for Total television quoted British public.

The evacuation of the platform Elgin has avoided a repeat of the worst disaster in the history of oil, the explosion of the Piper Alpha platform, which had 167 deaths in July 1988 after a gas leak on a similar offshore operations.

According to the British magazine New Scientist, quoting a source at Total, the leak did not come from the main geological reservoir in which natural gas is extracted, but an intermediate layer, closest to the surface. The gas goes back to the surface by the casing surrounding the drill pipe.

This would explain why all the efforts of staff the platform to plug the leaks found Sunday were unsuccessful. Only positive, the amount of gas in the intermediate tank should be smaller, and lower pressure than the main tank, which in turn, was secured.

Total would not confirm or deny this information, providing only that "studies are underway to analyze the causes of the leak." Industry experts estimate it will take several days to positively identify its origin, which is made very complicated by the fact that nobody left on the site.

1040 new aircraft worth $ 145 billion. This, according to the latest Airbus market research, the need for airlines in India in the next twenty years. Of these, the vast majority of planes (860) will be ordered to meet the growth in air traffic – to + 7.2% per year, it is already growing faster than the average in Asia (5.9%) . In total, the current fleet will more than triple to 1080 devices.

According to Airbus, the airline purchases will be predominantly (646 copies) on medium-haul aircraft type A320 and A320 Neo (version remotorisée). It to meet soaring domestic traffic should move quickly on a rate of 10% per year, which will make India one of the strongest markets in the world. The European manufacturer estimates that the market for 308 long-haul A350-type and 66 copies of the ultra-high capacity aircraft type A380.

Two giant orders

Airbus hopes to win a beautiful place in this promising market. Already, the European manufacturer claims "70% market share of new orders," his "ambition is to retain its leadership in the Indian market." To support its strategy to win business, Airbus has established local partnerships for forty years. It is manufactured locally A320 passenger doors, his best-seller. It is also recruiting Indian engineers in its Engineering Center opened in 2006 in Bangalore. The manufacturer employs 270 in total and has to hire another 180 by 2014 payday loan lenders.

Airbus' strategy has paid off. In 2011, the manufacturer has scored a major coup by winning two giant commands from Indigo (180 A 320 150 of Neo) and Go Air have ordered that, between them, 252 units.

Two threats

But the clouds on the horizon. On the one hand by the poor health of major customers such as local Kingfisher.Depuis his birth in 2005, the company has never made any money – it lost $ 90 million in the third quarter of fiscal year – and has accumulated a debt of $ 1.3 billion. Kingfisher international flights still canceled Wednesday, postponed delivery in 2014 of A 380 and ordered it does not exclude cancellations. In total, current orders are of 32 A320s, 20 A330 long-haul, long haul lonq five A350s and five A380 super-jumbo. The company promises tonight released a recovery plan within two to three days.  

Moreover, the implementation of the carbon tax by the European Union in January, also poses a threat to aircraft orders. Just as Beijing has frozen the purchase of 45 Airbus A 380, including 10 of its airlines, New Delhi is opposed to this tax. India may decide to retaliate. It threatens to bar its airlines to fly to Europe.

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Sluggish start to the year for consumers. The French have reduced their spending by 0.4% in January, reports the INSEE. In December, consumption had fallen by 0.2%, a figure revised up 0.5 point. Compared to January 2011, consumption fell 2.2%.

Household spending fell in virtually all sectors. In particular, they continued to crumble in clothing (-2.3%), despite the sales and after falling 1.7% in December.

This is especially the collapse of automobile purchases by 7.6% in January from 2.8% in December, which sealed the figure released today. Registrations have also unscrewed 20.7% compared with January 2011. "Households may indeed have anticipated their purchases of cars face of tougher no-claims bonus on 1st January 2012," INSEE advance.  

Among the few sectors rising, the food recovers (1.4%), after declining steadily over the past six months. "This decline is expected to continue as households are turning to cheaper goods in shops cheaper", the BNP Paribas economists. Energy costs have in turn bounced (2%) with the return of cold. This trend should continue and thus provide some support consumption in February, economists expect Societe Generale CIB.

Rising unemployment and uncertainties related to the crisis in the euro area seem to continue to weigh on household spending. This traditional driver of French growth had stalled in 2011, dropping by 0.5% over the year.

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Lefigaro.fr is the first news site in France in January. The study Médiamétrie / NetRatings, it was viewed by over 8.8 million unique visitors a month. A hearing is always the historic site of Figaro to a million users of the follower.

Development, the second place, occupied by Orange in December, was conquered by the Nouvel Observateur. High of 7.7 million unique monthly visitors, the site of the weekly benefits from the integration of "pure player" Rue89, bought in December.

Launched in late January, the site of the Huffington Post has also brought new visitors to the World, which brought together a total of 7.3 million Internet users in January. The web offers daily evening was nevertheless made the steal third place from the site of Le Parisien / Today in France, with nearly 7.5 million unique visitors.

January has generally drawn the hearings of the press line up. Portals and aggregators of articles edited by tech giants have, themselves, not take advantage of the French appetite for news. Orange News was relegated to sixth place in the ranking with 6.7 million unique visitors, Yahoo! News is eighth with 5.4 million visitors, MSN News and Google News are respectively the 11th and 13th.

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The knives are drawn between Casino and Galeries Lafayette, Monoprix owners. Both shareholders are certainly agree on one point: the Galeries Lafayette want to sell 50% of Monoprix, as they have indicated on December 7 at Casino, and it wants to redeem him. It will even soon have a war chest of 800 to 900 million euros, after its partial withdrawal of its subsidiary Mercialys. But both groups, associated for 15 years, do not agree on the valuation of Monoprix.

Casino, advised by Rothschild bank is willing to pay 700 million euros for 50% of Monoprix. Galeries Lafayette, advised by Societe Generale, in initially wanted $ 1.95 billion. The variance explained by the high volatility of the valuations of distribution groups, is such that JP Morgan, called to break the tie, threw in the towel.

Casino feels "taken hostage"

The conflict took a turn legal last week, when Galeries Lafayette Casino assigned to the Commercial Court of Paris to make their own estimate no fax payday loans. Meanwhile, Galeries Lafayette has made a new offer at $ 1.35 billion, still too far from the estimate of Casino.

Wednesday, a board of Monoprix, which was to convey, as of March 31, President of Monoprix to Jean-Charles Naouri, CEO of Casino, voted to maintain this position Philippe Houze, CEO of Galeries Lafayette … time an agreement is reached on the valuation.

The board is composed of three members appointed by Casino and three others by the Galeries Lafayette, but the chairman has the casting vote. Casino, who feels "taken hostage" will "seize the competent courts to uphold its commitments by Galeries Lafayette".

The commercial center of the Three Quarters, in front of the Madeleine in Paris, finding colors. C & A will move in March 2013 over Decathlon, hosted by the abandoned clothing store for men Madelios (Spring Group) a year ago. The Australian fund MGPA, owner of the building since 2009, has reached an agreement with the sign Germano-Dutch, who obtained all necessary approvals for its fifth store in Paris. "La Madeleine will be our new flagship, which will offer a younger, less traditional, to attract new consumers," says one at C & A France.  

This new formula will speak about 5400 m2, an area slightly smaller than that of C & A of the Rue de Rivoli or the Boulevard Haussmann online cash advance.

Renovations and expansion began in that outlet, situated opposite the spring, which will include codes store Velizy. This other concept of the sign refurbished clothing has "helped advance the traffic and sales," explained the group, without giving further details. After opening nine stores last year, bringing its network to 127 outlets, C & A opened this year between 13 and 14, in Angers, including Lyon and Troyes.

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