Countries of the euro, torn on the path of growth and the cost of austerity, are virtually unanimous on Greece. All institutions and capital combined, the pressure is on Athens and a government may be found, but already called upon to choose between honoring its commitments and the abandonment of the euro.

The hypothesis of a rupture between Greece and the common currency had found adherents in late summer 2011 at the height of the dealings between the former Papandreou government and its creditors. After two years of bailouts and broken promises, the scenario is no longer taboo. But never before EU officials had protested as loudly as the "Grexit," as they say in the markets, could be, after all, the least bad solution.

Usually consensus, the Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, opened fire ensuring that "better" than Greece leaves the club money if it does not follow the law. Olli Rehn, his right arm, drives the point home by explaining that the eurozone is now better positioned to absorb the impact. Clearly, Athens would have no means of blackmail with its creditors. For the euro area, the Commissioner insists, "there is no way" to ease the second recovery plan, agreed in March.

In terms of capital, the German Wolfgang Schaeuble wanted to give the "A". The euro area, he said, "can support an output of Greece." And the ECB, two governors abound. If Athens does not say, "there is more reason to support it financially," Jens Weidmann advance, also head of the Bundesbank. From Ireland, a country itself on life support, his colleague Patrick Honohan said that Greece "is ipso facto recover money from the block" if it renounced the word. A set of targeted preceding the appointment of the Eurogroup, on Monday evening in Brussels.

Facade of unity

The message is more political than financial: it is to bring the Greeks – mostly attached to the single currency, according to polls – to withhold their support for extremists and to open their eyes to the illusions that make the soft budget compatible with the euro. Nothing says that this move will lead to the desired result. There is no guarantee that an outflow of Greece would benefit its partners, beyond the political failure it would spend for the common currency and the EU as a whole. Council President Van Rompuy, more nuanced, notes that "the solution to the crisis is growing in Europe."

The puzzle Greek allows at least a facade of unity with leaders of the common currency. At the Eurogroup, two other cases may show otherwise divided, at least undecided: first, how to behave with respect to Spain, apparently unable to meet the target of a budget deficit reduced 3% in 2013, then a game of musical chairs constantly postponed at the head of financial institutions of the EU. Are concerned at least four sensitive positions: President of the Eurogroup (for which the German Wolfgang Schäuble is a candidate), the general direction of the new permanent emergency fund SS, a position at the ECB Executive Board and, finally, the Presidency of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). On this seat, Paris and Berlin diverge, to the despair of many Europeans. French side, the absence this Monday night at the Eurogroup of finance minister – Baroin, outgoing holder of the portfolio, did not go to it – will add to the inertia.

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Wednesday after the nationalization of the first network of savings banks Bankia, the Spanish government on Friday introduced a new banking reform, the second in less than three months. Madrid requires banks an additional provision of $ 30 billion. This will add to the 53 billion that should already be provisioned by the end of the year to cover the risk of real estate the most problematic, representing € 184 billion globally, according to Bank of Spain.

This caution will also be extended to 123 billion of property assets considered non-problematic "for their hypothetical deterioration" in the words of Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos. In total, Spanish banks will be funded 45% of their total real estate assets by the end of the year. Before the first government reform Rajoy, the rate was only 14%, the minister recalled. Other decision, banks will separate the real estate assets from their balance sheets and place them in specialized agencies, to better assess the right price. "It will be mandatory for all entities," the minister said. In the interests of transparency, and meet there at a request of the Eurogroup, Madrid will carry out audits of accounts. "Two independent evaluators" will be responsible for judging the soundness and credibility of assessments.

Recession in 2013

The question is how banks can finance such levels of provision and how much will be deducted from their own funds. Guindos recalled that during the last injection of public money made by the previous government, the fund Frob had lent 15 billion euros to banks. "The total should be this time significantly lower," he thought, noting that the state would receive an interest rate of 10% on money lent. "The Frob keeps 5 billion in cash. We will see how it will be necessary to supplement, "said Guindos. The Minister further stated that this funding through convertible bonds to five years, would cost "nothing" to the taxpayer.

The exercise of clarity has not convinced the markets: the Madrid Stock Exchange immediately plunged 3%, carried away by banks. The chief minister, Mariano Rajoy, nice hammer that the deficit will not be affected, the target of 5.3% of GDP this year, against 8.5% in December, and above 3% target in 2013 , is very hypothetical. The European Commission, which today released its new forecasts for the euro area, anticipates a deficit of 6.3% of GDP in 2012, even worse, 6.4% in 2013. In less than three months, Brussels has revised up sharply the recession, to 1.8% of GDP, against 1% previously. Next year, the economy would be even the only Iberian euro area to be in red.

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France has not lost fiscal credibility in one night: the election of Francois Hollande suddenly does not make the country less able to finance its debt. While remembering not to take any "political position" is the message that wished to address the rating agency Standard & Poor's Monday morning, issuing a statement saying that the memo from France – "AA +" with perspective negative – was not challenged.

"We still believe there is at least one in three chance that we may need to lower the long-term rating of France this year or in 2013," says S & P, however, with regard to finances public.

Test market 16 May

In its statement, the agency says it will "analyze the choice of new president and new government" and take into account in any future decision on the outcome of the June elections payday advances.

The next auction of debt, which will be held Thursday, May 16, should serve as a real test markets. It is at this moment that we will know if investor demand to fund the French debt is as important as ever.

At the Agence France Trésor (AFT), we simply note that Monday morning, "the 10-year yield continues to relax"

.

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It is a paradox. Michel Combes, the current CEO of Vodafone Europe will become CEO of SFR and board member of Vivendi from August 1, 2012. Jean-Bernard Lévy, Vivendi's chief executive who assumed the interim of Frank Esser arrived in late March, has finally chosen the man who best knows the file. And for good reason! It is precisely Michel Combes, who just last year, sold at high prices to the 44% Vivendi Vodafone's shareholding in SFR. Since 2008 and became head of European operations of British mobile giant, Michel Combes was also a director of SFR. He proceeded to examine every angle SFR.

Shortly after the departure of Frank Esser, Vivendi launched a search to find a replacement. And soon the name of Michel Combes has surfaced. It is a great French telecom specialist for the financial director of France Telecom in 2003 before becoming the right arm of Didier Lombard until 2006. But it is also a leader who has acquired an international dimension to the head of Vodafone Europe since 2008 low fee pay day loans. Meanwhile, the X Telecom 50 years, known for his enthusiasm and hyperactivity, led TDF, the technical broadcaster of television and radio and wireless mobile telecom. His brief tenure as head of TDF was marked by the construction of an ambitious business model that attracted the new shareholders of TDF, the TPG, Axa Private Equity and the CDC.

At the head of SFR, Michel Combes will have to implement the plan to win back customers attracted by offers Free Mobile. It will also improve profitability of the mobile operator heavily affected by the general decline in package prices. In 2012 and 2013, the EBITDA of SFR should decline by 15%. A challenge for Vivendi, who paid € 8 billion to acquire the entire share capital of SFR few months before the arrival of Free Mobile market. The destruction of value for Vivendi would be valued at nearly $ 2 billion.

The export machine of South Korea is emerging. After suffering the brunt of the crisis of the euro, the Land of the Morning Calm-recorded in the first quarter its strongest growth last year, demonstrating its ability to rebound. Seoul announced Thursday a 0.9% growth, a significant increase compared to 0.3% the previous quarter, fueling hopes of an annual expansion of 3.5%, the OECD predicted.

"We're doing relatively well, given the weak global economy", says Kim Young-bae, director of the Bank of Korea. Relief is required by decision makers of the fourth largest economy in Asia, 46% of GDP depends on exports, particularly to Europe, its second largest trading partner after China. This slight increase is a lifeline ripped by large groups, such as Hyundai Motors, which recorded an increase of 31% of its revenue through increased sales in the U.S. and Europe.

But behind these numbers right, the clouds on the horizon. An OECD report, published Thursday in Seoul, tip the scale of the demographic challenge that awaits the young democracy of 50 million people and threatens its future development. With a fertility rate among the lowest in the world (1.05 children per woman), the country will suffer in the coming year accelerated aging which will impact negatively on growth.

"Marriage strike"

Followed by the specter of Japan, model and longtime rival, the path of decline. The OECD calls on Seoul to take the bull by the horns by implementing proactive measures to adapt to the demographic shock. First, by raising the birth rate by funding systems affordable child care, while most South Koreans are forced to choose between career and motherhood. If women entered heavily on the labor market, often times Stakhanovists companies make it difficult to balance work and motherhood. So, 40% in their thirties who are employed are single. This "marriage strike" is a major cause of the bust according to the Korea Development Institute (KDI).

The OECD also stresses the urgency of improving the productivity per hour, two times lower than that of advanced countries, reforming an education system where cramming is the key to success.

These measures are all the more necessary that the country is not ready for mass immigration, as evidenced by a recent survey that only 36% of South Koreans favor the coexistence of different cultures on their territories. On April 13, Jasmine Lee's election, the first member of foreign origin, has unleashed a slew of racial slurs online, highlighting the challenge.

Only a major geopolitical upheaval in Pyongyang leading to early reunification with North Korea seems able to thwart the predictions of the OECD.

At a time when many companies are trying to renegotiate the pricing terms of their gas supplies, this is a decision that will make noise: Tuesday, the supervising judge of the Commercial Court of Valenciennes has decided to terminate the contract of long-term supply that united the power plant Poweo Pont-sur-Sambre (North) to Italian energy giant ENI.

March 12, the production plant, now owned by the Austrian Verbund electrician, had been placed under safeguard procedure. Reason: it loses about one million euros per week. Three days later, on March 15, the receiver can catch the commercial court by an application to terminate. There is indeed a difference of nearly 40% between the market price of gas and those supply contracts in the long term, indexed to oil prices – which soared for several weeks. What makes the situation untenable for the Pont-sur-Sambre.

A canceled contract

In fact, the judge may decide the termination under two conditions: firstly, this option is necessary to safeguard the debtor on the other hand, the termination shall not affect significantly the activity of the contractor, in ENI case. The Commercial Court of Valenciennes finally concluded that these two conditions were met, indicating that the supply of Poweo Pont-sur-Sambre – to the tune of 150 million euros per year – accounted for only 0 guaranteed fast personal loans.13% of net Business ENI.

After this decision, the Transalpine oil has several ways to try to counteract it: application for annulment with the commercial court, appeal to the court of appeal, cassation … All these procedures require weeks or months. Meanwhile, the Commercial Court's decision is not suspended and the contract between Poweo Pont-sur-Sambre and ENI is actually terminated.

Whatever the intensity of this battle, it will give ideas to large consumers of gas. They now know that they are likely to be heard before the commercial court if their incumbent supplier does not agree a discount to the extent of the plunge in gas prices. Since the development of shale gas in the U.S. (now exporting) in particular, the economy of this energy has completely returned with an offer suddenly extremely abundant.

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The egg becomes a scarce commodity. Since the entry into force on 1 January of a European directive amending the conditions for laying hens, egg production in France fell 18% in mid-March, after falling 10% in 2011 . "About 5% of farmers have failed to comply with standards on time and no longer have the right to produce," says the National Committee for the Promotion of the egg (CNPO). At the abeyance of some poultry houses, plus the time needed for hens, very prone to stress, to adapt to their new environment and get back to spawn, the producers note. Other countries are affected, such as Spain, Italy, Germany or the UK. In total, Europe suffers from a deficit of 200 million eggs a week.

Faced with this shortage, manufacturers of biscuits, cakes and pasta are worried. They are now buying their eggs at prices 66 to 100% higher than a year ago. "Supply is a real problem," said Romain Nouffert, Managing Director of Lesieur, the French number one edible oil, which provides an increase of 5 to 6% of the price of mayonnaise. A fear shared by Philippe Godard, responsible for the development of the Business Federation of French baking and pastry (FEBPF). "The proportion of eggs in the total composition of revenues may represent 15 to 30% of the total, depending on the product," he says. "The cost may no longer be acceptable or even tolerable, if the rise continues, especially as it adds to the high price of durum wheat," is alarmed, for his part, Christine Petit, Secretary General Union of Industrial Pasta Manufacturers of France (SIFPAF), who represents Lustucru Pastacorp.  

Denouncing "the inertia of the European authorities," the industry is calling for urgent action, particularly for the import of egg products. "If the situation continues, some companies at risk of bankruptcy in four to six months," warns the FEBPF and SIFPAF, associated with the manufacturers of Biscuits and Cakes France, the Union of Bakery crispy and chewy and the Association of food companies developed (ADEPALE) poor credit personal loans. This sector includes more than 104,000 direct jobs in France for a turnover exceeding € 18.3 billion.

The French could pay the bill

The equation is further complicated for manufacturers that they can not pass on the soaring prices of the egg on the shelves, being bound by contracts with the annual distribution. "When you know that 90% of cookies are sold in supermarkets and hypermarkets, we measure the challenges of this situation," says Philippe Godard. Distribution, however, considers that this crisis is temporary. "Our goal is to preserve the purchasing power of consumers and ultimately for the entire industry, sales volumes of these products in store," says Mathieu Pecqueur, agriculture and quality director of the Federation of Commercial and distribution (FCD). "Manufacturers have certainly been integrated into the negotiations completed in late February the rising cost of egg production, we see that since the end of 2011," he adds. From last year, in fact, farmers were already experiencing an increase in wheat and corn used to feed chickens.

One day or another, however, the French should bear the brunt of this crisis of the egg. "The impact on the labels will, in theory, since the momentary during the egg will soon recede," said Charles Pernin, head of nutrition and health issues at the consumer organization CLCV. "Unfortunately, the shelf prices rarely return to normal," he adds. Ultimately, the French can always follow the latest fashion: invest in a hen to produce their own eggs and thus continue to make cakes.

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France is already the "spoils" of foreign tourists, with 77 million international visitors in 2010, according to World Tourism Organization (WTO). And to remain so, she can count on its approximately 50,000 religious buildings (monasteries, abbeys, cathedrals, churches, synagogues, mosques, etc ….) that attract more and more tourists, especially during holidays such as Easter or All Saints . But not only. "There is definitely a trend in favor of deep spiritual tourism," says Geraldine Bale, president of the association Sanctuaries Cities in France, which includes 15 sites of pilgrimage including Lourdes, Mont Saint-Michel, Chartres, Lisieux or Vézelay ( Yonne). The increase in attendance of these sanctuaries is stable for several years, the range of 5 to 10% per year depending on the site.

The Sanctuary of Lourdes. Photo Credits: Richard VIALERON / Le Figaro

February was without much panache to the French national dailies. Sales of five of the eight titles of general information and sports have registered a decrease, France paid for a mailing of 1.6 million copies in total daily average, according to OJD, the supervisory body the press.

Among GPs, Le Figaro has kept its position as the leading national daily, to 330,725 copies, a slight increase (0.66%), followed by Le Monde, down 5.22%, to 279,455 copies. Sports daily Amaury Group, The Équipechute 8.8%, to 253,766 copies. Desechos sales, now only business daily since the demise of the print edition of The Tribune, have scraped 0.6%. After a strong month in January (5.7%), those of Libérationont declined 2%.  

Louis Dreyfus, chief executive of Le Monde, explains its poor performance against the election campaign, he said "less than the previous carrier," and the establishment of a retirement plan at Printing World which resulted work stoppages, "which made us miss sales in Paris and the provinces." But, conversely, the new format of the weekend's evening paper, enriched with three supplements and renovated a magazine, launched in September, is bearing fruit, with a circulation up 5% year on year , "despite an increase in the sale price low interest rate personal loans."

A new journal for tablets

Maintaining a price of 0.90 euro for weeks in Francea Today, however, allowed the national edition of Le Parisien, also in the Amaury group, earn 6.3%, to 167,890 copies, after a 14.6% jump in January, mainly due to a favorable base effect, the weather in January 2011 having lost many sales quotidien.Aujourd 'hui in Franceest focused by the judgment of the paper edition of France Soirdepuis mid-December 2011. 

For its part, says his Team in February by a slippage rate of migration to digital readership faster than in the general press, by an unfavorable base effect linked to the victory of the France team handball to World Championships in February 2011, and the cancellation of the match France-Ireland Six Nations on 12 February.

"The sports news has been sparse," said Francois Morinière, Group Chief Executive Team, which gives priority to develop its digital sales. His group will launch in May, just before the tournament at Roland Garros, a new 100% digital newspaper for reading on tablet.

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The French beheaded their king. Do they want to behead the richest of them? One might think that it is in the order of things and words. "King" in Latin rex, and "rich" that just in Gallic rix (as Vercingetorix), share the same etymological family. Both mean "powerful". To cut down?

Francois Hollande and plans to impose 75% income in excess of one million euros, at the risk of appearing confiscatory and unconstitutional. Nicolas Sarkozy wants to tax the tax exiles, threatening implication of deprivation of nationality, and is also limited vis-à-vis the Constitution. The both are attacking a minority that is the envy. Paradoxically, the rich more concerned about public opinion that the poor in the Hexagon. Poor little rich girl, sang Claude François.

Who do we speak? In the U.S., the debate on the "1%" has become a dominant theme of the 2012 presidential campaign. It was launched by the movement Occupy Wall Street ("Wall Street deal"), with the slogan "We are the 99%" ("we are the 99%"). It is stigmatizing growing inequality. Today, 1% of the population accounts for 17% of national income, according to statistics from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), IRS. This proportion more than doubled since the early 1980s throughout the country. It even reaches 44% in the city of New York, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute, an independent body to observe the living conditions of the city.

To be part of the "top 1%" across the Atlantic, he had declared to the tax authorities .927 343 dollars of income in 2009 (before various exemptions, ie "tax loopholes"), about 265, 000 euros. In France, the club's ticket is much more modest. According to INSEE, it was enough for a single person to have a "stated income" of 88 200 euros in 2008 (latest figures available) to be among the 602 most successful French .500 (1% of the 60.250 million population metropolitan France which reports income). Paradoxically, the threshold is proportionately much lower for a couple (132 euros exactly .300), as INSEE reason in what he calls "consumption units". Example, a two-person household accounts for only 1.5 units of consumption: statisticians feel they have less to spend, if only because they share the same roof

. The rich must prove they are effective and useful

The "rich French", the "very high income" in the language of INSEE (at least 7 .350 euros per month for a single), are three times less than Americans. The main reason is that in France the club "of 1%" focuses 7% of national income annually, instead of 17% across the Atlantic, where the overall wealth of the country is also higher (by about a quarter capita) low fee payday advance. Another major difference from both sides of the Atlantic, nine-tenths of the French who are part of the "top 1%", ie 540, 000, with annual sales revenue of less than 239, 000 euros, according to INSEE. This does not allow them to figure in the American Club!

More and more observers believe the criterion of 1% insufficiently selective and that the group is too heterogeneous. It would be more appropriate to focus on the cream of the crop, "one thousandth" of the highest incomes, we believe more in the United States. We are 99.9%, "headlined last fall Paul Krugman, columnist featured in The New York Times, also Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008.

In doing so, it intends to develop two arguments. First of all this "super-elite" – whose annual revenues are on average 5.3 to 7.5 million – has seen its resources after tax increase by 400% since 1979 (increase in real terms, net of inflation and after taxes). But for the average American, who is in the exact middle of the income distribution, purchasing power has increased by just 21%.

Paul Krugman denounces especially the claim of "super-elite" to justify its gains by descréations job. "Very few of them are innovative type of Steve Jobs," he said. He noted that 18% are from finance, 12% are lawyers or real estate industry, "professions where there is no evidence of a clear link between income and contribution to the economy." The rich must prove they are effective and useful. Today more than ever when growth just to leave.

The debate is as old as time. "What the rich have they more than others?", Asked in the 1920 F. Scott Fitzgerald, author of The Great Gatsby. "Money," replied his friend Ernest Hemingway. As if the wealthy had neither merit nor talent. The opposite attitude is that of the famous parable of the talents: "The master gave five talents to one of his servants, who knew them for profit and is rewarded, while those who did not receive that one hastens to bury in the earth … "This is the origin of the word" talent ". He pointed coins, it became "the gift that is made fruitful." The ability to create jobs for example.

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