Sundial of world news

The subject is no longer taboo. According to information of the German weekly Der Spiegel revealed this Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble would seriously consider bankruptcy of Athens, which could result in a departure from the country of the euro. While this information was then "denied by Germany," according to the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, it comes as markets are increasingly skeptical about a rescue of Greece, whose economy continues to worse. To this must be added the recent publications of economists, who now publish the "fictions" about the abandonment of the euro in Athens.

Natixis economist Patrick Artus has decrypted this scenario in an analysis published Monday.Taking into account the levels of debt, public deficits and outside Greece, he felt that Athens should depreciate its currency by 55% to balance its accounts. For now, the country will wipe a deep recession "for the next 18 months." It is characterized by a drop in growth and "a sharp decline in purchasing power" due to inflation, a consequence of the devaluation ("with a surge in import prices by about 30%" ) and monetization of public debt as the deficit persists. Similarly, the bank UBS in a note published evoked early September at a cost of 9,500 to 11,500 euros per person the first year of a release of the European currency.

A scenario "imaginable" and "sustainable"

According to Patrick Artus, this bad patch should then be completed at the end of "two or three years," with a resumption of growth.But for Europe, the bill would be salty, since leaving the euro, Greece should convert its debt in its new currency. Which would cost banks and institutional investors in the euro area some 166 billion euros, according to the devaluation held by Natixis.

An output of the euro remains of Athens "imaginable" and "sustainable", argues Patrick Artus. However, "[he] would not attempt the coup," he insists, for fear that the markets get the idea that other countries in difficulty, in turn, leave the single currency. With online focus, Italy and Spain (under perfusion of the ECB through a program to purchase obligation), the output of the euro is, this time, "not at all imaginable, "given the size of their economies.

Public expenditure or fiscal austerity?

For the economist, only a policy of renewed growth in Greece would head out of the water."We must stop this hard to Athens on the reduction of the deficit, he loses his temper. We are killing the country. Instead of giving him three years to reduce its deficit, which gives him six, and that helps companies to find the path of growth and competitiveness. "

A view shared by economist Nouriel Roubini, calling to reactivate the lever of public spending on pain of falling into a "Great Depression". Tance but Jürgen Stark, the former chief economist of the ECB, for whom "a fiscal stimulus would only increase the level of debt and would therefore only increase those risks further." Whatever decision the euro area, it will in all cases act quickly to prevent the "taboo" from turning into disasters scenarios.

Outside the coffee dock, near the Gare de l'Est in Paris, the formula breakfast at 7 euros. At this rate, you are entitled to two slices of bread, a croissant or pain au chocolat, orange juice and a hot drink. Marcel Bénezet not sell a dozen a day, when he easily achieves 80 seats daily.

"In France, the breakfast is just 2% of sales of cafés, bars and eateries, says the owner of the establishment, also president of cafes, bars and brasseries in the union Synhorcat. But for one short year, the market moves a little. We draw some of the clientele of hotels.More and more business appointments are also around a working breakfast between 8 o'clock and 10 o'clock. "

"Not very profitable"

Praised by business travelers, the Plaza Athénée, a Parisian palace, carries 3 million in sales a year with his breakfast, including 1.6 million in the dining room of Alain Ducasse, where 60% of the clientele has not spent the night at the hotel. A single espresso is charged 8 euros. "The average price is 50 euros per person. All patrons of the CAC 40 are there, welcomes François Delahaye, the owner of the Plaza Athénée. Breakfast loyalty. But it is not very profitable, because payroll costs as much as we noon, when the bill is four times lower. "

Breakfast remains a difficult market for restaurateurs.The French are indeed more likely to take home the Anglo-Saxons, and they have less appetite.

McDonald's France, the breakfast is less than 1% of sales. "Unlike the British, Germans and Dutch, the French are not ready to leave in the morning for their breakfast, says Isabelle Kuster, Vice President of Operations in France and Southern Europe at McDonald's. Many are content with a coffee and stay hungry until noon.To attract them, we must offer them what they prefer: an espresso and toast. "As a result, McDonald's, which sells its formula with American breakfast (pancakes and Egg McMuffin) than 250 McDonald's where the demand warrants, innovates by launching September 26th in its 130 McCafe an offer adapted to the habits of the French, with small black and baguette spread with butter and jam.

"France is the only country where the espresso and croissants topped sales in the morning," insists a spokesman for Starbucks. The American chain attracts a customer in France to 60% and 40% of local tourists. In the morning, only 30% of customers use their on-site order. "But in France, we carry a large portion of our sales between 8 am and noon, when the Germans and Spaniards are more in the afternoon," said the spokesman for Starbucks.

After the storm that brought down the CAC 40 over 5%, the Paris Bourse seems unable to stay in the green Thursday. After opening up 2.96% to 3092.16 points, the CAC 40 went back down just before noon and sank below the threshold of 3000 points, already briefly reached Tuesday. Half an hour after the opening up of Wall Street, with two good indicators on employment and housing, the index slope gently went back after plunging 2.40% to 14 hours. He lowered from 0.08% to 3000.60 points to 16 hours.

In Frankfurt, the Dax is in the green at 5647 points, up 0.61%. The FTSE-100 index of London Stock Exchange plays yoyo but is also up 0.82% to 5047 points.

The concerns are far from being dissipated, particularly those relating to the slowdown in the global economy and the issue of sovereign debt on both sides of the Atlantic.Evidence of this tension, gold continues to fly record after record. The precious metal has crossed the threshold of 1800 dollars. It is this Thursday morning in 1790 dollars, after hitting a new record of 1815.50 dollars.

Oil prices also retreated in a market that once again expressed its concerns about future growth and energy demand. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 82.39 dollars, down 50 cents from the previous day.

Bank stocks battered

Among the values ​​of the day include banking, which have been heavily tested yesterday. The Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the stock market regulator, announced that it will monitor developments in the securities sector.Shortly before noon, BNP Paribas (-5.88% to 33.515 euros), and Credit Agricole (-1.51% to 5.981 euros) and plunged into the red after yet open on a rebound.

The title plays yoyo Societe Generale: having lost 14.74% Wednesday, it opened on a rebound of almost 9%.He dived again from 4.13% to 21.265 euros in midday before regroup after the opening of U.S. markets (-0.45% to 22.08 euros to 16 hours).

"The willingness of these attacks is to force the SG to a capital increase, which is the workhorse of some analysts and hedge funds in recent months," said an analyst based in Paris at the agency Reuters. "Their reasoning is that the group does not generate enough capital to cope with the capital ratio of over 9% in 2013." The bank, already shaken in 2008 by the Kerviel affair, only to find the investor confidence after several warnings about its results during the financial crisis.

For its part, the CEO of the bank, Frédéric Oudéa, denounced, in an interview with Le Figaro, "the series of attacks" against the French banking sector "sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, attacked Societe Generale, "he lamented. "We have no fear about our ability to raise capital," he added. SocGen has asked the AMF to investigate the origin of the rumors that have depressed its course Wednesday.

Alcatel-Lucent takes advantage of Cisco's results

Veolia Environnement (4.61% to 10.55 euros) and STMicroelectronics (3.39% to 4.488 euros), especially titles attacked in recent days, return to the field.

In addition, EADS (1.66% to 20.24 euros), the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday it will not achieve its objectives in the United States in 2020 without new acquisitions.

Title Alcatel-Lucent (2.11% to 2.324 euros) rose after the release of quarterly results from Cisco Systems, above the consensus of Wall Street.

L'Oreal (2.29% to 1.73 euros) benefits from the decision by Goldman Sachs, which added its list of preferred European stocks to buy ("pan-Europe conviction buy list").

Saint-Gobain (1.11% to 31.775 euros) has announced the acquisition of Solar Gard, a subsidiary of Belgian group dedicated to Bekaert Specialty Films, as part of its strategy to accelerate its growth through acquisitions.

Maurel & Prom rose 4.22% to 12.35 euros after opening up over 8%. The oil company has reported a surge of 123% of its revenue thanks to increased revenues in Gabon and Nigeria.

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In the aftermath of a black day on world financial markets, U.S. equity markets begin this Friday on a stable note. In early trade, the Dow gained 0.03% to 11,387 points, the Nasdaq is 1.01% more frankly to 2582 points and the S & P up 0.82% to 1211 points. The markets resume with the publication of unemployment figures across the Atlantic for the better than expected in July.

Wall Street follows the movement promoted by the European stock exchanges. In Paris, the political mobilization against the bear market in Europe has slowed the drop in European indexes.

The employment figures dictate trend

In this context the assumption of a recession in the U.S. or the world, is today one of the main fears of the markets, the announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month calm spirits on Wall Street.In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment .On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks fast cash online.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

PSA Peugeot Citroën can overcome the disaster in the first half Japanese. The first French car maker reported Wednesday a net profit after minority interests up 18.5% to 806 million euros in the first half. Revenues rose 9.7% to 31.1 billion euros, driven by sales outside Europe, while trading profit rose 1.8% to 1.16 billion. The agreement gave a turnover of 30.52 billion euros and a net operating income of 1.15 billion.

The effect of the disaster that hit Japan in March was still represented 147 million euros for PSA in the first half. Excluding this impact, operating income would have emerged an increase of 14.7%."In an environment unfavorable market declines of the group in Europe, higher raw material prices and disruptions caused by the disaster in Japan, the company posted a robust performance. This context reinforces the relevance of our strategy to move upmarket Peugeot and Citroen, globalization and improving operational performance, "said Philippe Varin, CEO of PSA, in a statement.

Disturbances yet to come

The negative effects of the disaster of March 11 should not disappear in the second half."In Japan we have had negative effects and we continue to have negative effects because there are a number of components that are in short supply, and force us to change our product offering and, thus, to have a dialogue with our customers a little more complicated, "said Frédéric Saint-Geours, CFO of PSA, during a teleconference.

The problems in Japan, combined with rising commodity prices, should have a negative impact stronger than expected second quarter. "The environment should deteriorate further € 300 million compared to previous estimates," says the group. Degradation that will fail to fully offset by productivity gains and income derived from its performance plan, he warns.

Despite this difficult environment, PSA confirms its target of an increase in profit from recurring operations throughout the year. The supplier Faurecia, which still holds PSA 57.4% stake, has also raised its 2011 targets on Tuesday after a first half marked by strong growth in all regions of the world.

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This year, 12 million tax returns were made via the Internet, according to Bercy. Now a taxpayer in three (there are 36 million homes tax in France) chose the Web to meet in the spring of this task which then allows the tax authorities to calculate the income tax (IR) to pay.

Set up in 2002, the Electronic Filing is getting stronger year after year: 7.4 million followers in 2008, 10.5 million in 2010. This is due, among other things, the simplification of the system. In 2009, the State has decided not to ask for electronic certificate, which allows their returns from any computer. The IR, which is paid 53% of the 36 million tax households, reported 47 billion euros to the state in 2010.

They lied. This is a strange admission by Clement and Alec, the founders of La Chanson du Dimanche, the duo since 2007 Sunday night awakens the evil of Internet users in social and crazy song. Yes, they lied to their customers is a confession in the form of heartfelt cry that emerges from this interview.

Consultant bombed out of school, both graduates of the Ecole Nationale Superieure des Telecom are two mathematicians lost time in the land of recce missions and project management. It's hard to imagine a mission, wearing, clean-shaven, explaining to a client redesign of a master plan or the establishment of a new information system … Yet they did.

They retain a bittersweet feeling, a form of disenfranchisement that tells and sings with humor generation in their thirties they belong.On the one hand a job the temptation of food and the gentrification of bohemian and the other the desire to achieve otherwise. From this point of view, Alec and his anxiety to quit pretty much sums up the feeling of all those who want to move on but do not have the courage or the opportunity to go through. Clement has not experienced these feelings. It is the most relaxed of the two and gives math class today until the next season of the Song of Sunday.

– Manage the post-Fukushima

The renaissance that nuclear power seemed to promise, in the world, there are a few more months, will she be? Areva had put in a position to be a key player in the expansion of civil atom, only controlled and profitable alternative to fossil fuels and "clean" in CO2 emissions which is more. The French group and hired some 12,000 people each year to keep pace expected of its business.

Since 11 March, the situation has changed dramatically: Germany, Switzerland and now Italy, have decided to end their civil nuclear program. India, with firm orders for new reactors was expected before the summer, will surely prolong his reflection. Anne Lauvergeon refused to believe in a "nuclear winter".For her as for other supporters of the atom, the policy decisions taken today as the heat of the moment can be questioned tomorrow.

For now, the international development of Areva is at stake in the coming months, all the nuclear installations in Europe will be reviewed. Although the terms of these "stress tests" are still being defined, Areva will necessarily be at the forefront. Like Anne Lauvergeon, his successor will have to become a diplomat of nuclear power, both to reassure his interlocutors on the safety of this activity and convince them to pursue an effective dialogue with the French group.

– Restore the finances of the company

For a long time, critics of Anne Lauvergeon stigmatize poor operational management of the company and its finances in jeopardy.In 2010, the company has also accused an operating loss of 423 million euros and the rating agency has become mediocre. The group also suffers from having camped on his credo of "vertical integration", to the point of purchase, too expensive, its own uranium mines, which now require large investments. Finally, the action Areva is listed in this form since May 30, has lost nearly 15%.

– Pacifier relationship with EDF

Relations have never been easy between the two companies, they have become abominable between Anne and Henri Proglio Lauvergeon, CEO of the utility since the fall of 2009. Regularly called to order by the state, their shareholders to both, the two companies to work together STRIPS sentenced last fall to formalize a strategic partnership.

All aspects of collaboration are concerned, the supply of uranium to the reprocessing of spent fuel, to building new reactors. But the various working groups have not yet yielded any conclusions. Again, the management of Areva will be watched around the corner. Luc Oursel will be on a narrow track of restoring harmonious relations with EDF, without appearing the vassal.

Seen from the Elysee, the issue is crucial because it is to harmonize relationships within the French nuclear industry to win export contracts. Without compromising the ability of Areva to sell only his skills to other electricians global EDF's competitors.

– To service the Finnish EPR

It's really cursed the site for Areva. The new generation of reactor Olkiluoto 3 should have been operational in 2009. It will not be before 2012.His bill, expected around 3.5 billion euros, has appreciated by 3 billion euros, lead accounts Areva. The company – which has staked his credibility by taking on the project management of this project – no longer has the right to make mistakes. The EPR is the cornerstone of its international development. And it is that Luc Oursel return the task to make a successful export, arguing its assets in terms of safety.

At the same time, the new leader of the nuclear group will tackle the launch of the TDD, a new medium-power reactor that. Through this case is the ability of the company to expand its portfolio of facilities that will be tested.

It is an open secret. Bercy is seriously considering reducing the tax benefits for 2012 related Scellier.

So far, it was expected that next year, the buyer of a property to rent commitment over nine years has a tax reduction equal to 18% of the value of the property. This would already be less favorable than this year, where the tax reduction amounts to 22%. And still less in 2010, when she was 25%. But in times of fiscal restraint, the Budget Ministry believes that this tax shelter is too expensive and would like to reduce again. For now, nothing is fixed about the contours of this consolidation. Trade-offs are expected in late August.

But this project is already causing an outcry on the part of developers."During the first quarter, with sales support Scellier decreased by 35%, mainly because of lower tax benefit, argues Marc Pigeon, president of the REIT (real estate developers Federation). If an additional movement of the plane Scellier is made in 2012, we may descend to 80 000 new home sales next year, against 115,000 in 2010. "

"Any reform which will reduce the tax benefits will reduce the market," says echoing Bertière Francis, CEO of Bouygues Immobilier. A real threat when the housing shortage is still going strong. And the real danger that prices will rise again, even in the older building, due to insufficient supply.

A cost of 3.6 billion euros last year

Another argument for professionals: reducing the Scellier, the government will lower savings than they expect facially."It will be much less VAT, besides the loss of sales will raise unemployment in the construction," said Marc Pigeon.

Proponents also believe that substantial savings have already been made. "Last year, 60,000 homes were sold with this law, which represents a commitment by the State to the tune of 3.6 billion euros, says Guy Nafilyan, CEO of Kaufman & Broad France. This year, the profession is just to sell some 40 000, a limited spending to $ 2.4 billion. Finally, in a time when the contours of the new scheme are still under study, proponents navigate view. "Unaware of the tax benefits for 2012, we are very careful when buying land," illustrates Alain Dinin, Nexity CEO.

Remains an even more fundamental question. The Scellier is supposed to expire December 31, 2012.Aware that such a decision would be dramatic for the construction sector, members of the Finance Committee are working on a replacement device. "The goal is to lower the cost to the state, so that it is more than about 1.2 billion. However, the tax cut should be at least 15% incentive to stay, "said Gilles Carrez, UMP general rapporteur of the commission. MPs want the measure to be passed this autumn, under Budget 2012, "to give time to prepare for the sector," said Francis Scellier, UMP housing specialist, who gave his name to famous device. For once, developers find there is nothing wrong.

While the Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was charged with attempted rape and arrested in the U.S. yesterday as investors worried about the turn that will take the debt crisis in the euro area, especially in Greece. The indictment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn ally of Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou, arrived in effect at the worst time for Athens. The IMF chief would have had to go in Berlin on Sunday and meet Angela Merkel to discuss a possible new aid to Greece, who won the spring of 2010 using a 110 billion euros, 30 billion from the IMF.This meeting was to take place on the eve of a meeting of the Eurogroup, the Monday night and Tuesday in Brussels, with the main discussions at the agenda of the financial problems that resurface Greece for several days and plaguing the markets, concerned about the risks of bankruptcy of Greece, and the possible contagion to other countries of the euro area.

The IMF will be well represented at the meeting of the Eurogroup, the deputy general manager of operations, Nemat Shafik, who was missionnée to attend. But analysts say the IMF's support to Greece is not as steadfast as Dominique Strauss-Kahn took the reins of the institution.Thus, Eswar Prasad, an analyst at the Brookings Institution told the antenna Bloomberg: "The assumption was that as Dominique Strauss-Kahn remained at the head of the IMF, the institution has not dropped in Europe and continue to support the continent. But the departure of Dominique Strauss-Kahn casts doubt on the intentions of the IMF payday advance. "

The IMF board will meet on Monday

Immediate consequence of these doubts, the euro was down Monday morning on the currency markets in Asia. The euro bought 1.4056 dollars in Tokyo Monday morning, 1.4108 against the dollar in New York Friday night. Against the yen, the European currency eased to 113.61 yen against 113.99 yen. "For a few days at least, the market will fear a paralysis of leadership at the IMF.The euro is the currency will suffer the most since the IMF is active or in process of being implemented in three countries in the eurozone, "said an analyst.

For its part, the IMF has tried to be reassuring, saying yesterday that he remained "fully functional and operational," after stating that John Lipsky, IMF number two, will the Interim Director General of the institution the time required. The institution must meet its board of directors on Monday to decide the fate of its president at its head.Originally scheduled yesterday the appointment was postponed, the council waiting for new developments to make its decision in this situation that observers deemed "not simple".

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