Sundial of world news

Moody's has struck again. This time, the rating agency downgraded the credit rating assigned to the public debt of Ireland two notches to Aa2 from Aa1. The agency now shows a stable outlook, while they were negative before.

Moody's analysts explain this degradation by three factors. They rely on "the gradual loss and significant financial strength of the Irish government illustrated by rising deficits and the weakening of the country's repayment capacity." Growth prospects also weakened justify the gesture of the agency. The agency believes that the burden of debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to stabilize around 95% to 100% within two to three years. Finally, doubts about the soundness of the banking system, following numerous recapitalizations of businesses have also influenced Moody's.The agency has referred to the substantial liabilities arising from the establishment of the NAMA (National Asset Management), a defeasance bank (or bank rotten ") service, which has to buy the Irish banks Tens of billions of subprime loans that they had accumulated before the credit crisis.

A budget deficit higher than that of Greece

In 2009, the budget deficit of Ireland, 14.3% of GDP was highest in the euro area, even superior to that of Greece, suffered a severe debt crisis. The Irish public debt has soared from 25% of GDP at end 2007 to 65% in late 2009.

Moody's has recently made several other cuts of notes on debt.The sovereign rating of Portugal has been degraded to A1 AA2 cons last week because of growth prospects remain relatively low and a deteriorating financial situation. Following the degradation cascade, investors may be less attentive to agency decisions.

Mixed. Between the good results released Tuesday by Intel and announcements pessimistic Fed, the U.S. markets have been slow to find the right direction. They finally finished in extremis in the green. A green very hesitant. The Dow Jones gained 0.04%, Nasdaq 0.35% advance in 2250. In contrast, the S & P 500 was down 0.02% to 1095 points.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remains above 1.27 dollars to 10:40 p.m. at 1.2738 dollars (0.14%). The dollar seems to lose some of its appeal as a safe haven. The encouraging start to the season half results in the United States seems to restore investor confidence and encourages risk taking. The European currency was on his side with the success of the issuance of treasury bills Greeks.The operation, with a rate of 4.65%, the first since May, when the euro zone and the IMF have provided loans of 110 billion euros over three years, has aroused demand of over 4.5 billion euros, well above the 1.25 billion that the country wanted to raise.

Retail sales disappoint, the Fed resolutely pessimistic

To many observers, the Fed was going to share in the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, the revised growth forecasts downwards. It is clear that they were right. The U.S. central bank now expects growth of between 3% and 3.5%, against a range from 3.2% to 3.7% three months ago. The finding is similar to unemployment. Consequently, the Fed is considering new measures of monetary policy to support the U.S. economy.

Side indicators on Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported a 0.5% drop in retail sales in the U.S. last month, after declining 1.1% in May according to a revised estimate. Economists and analysts polled by Reuters were predicting a decline of 0.2%. Compared to June 2009, sales were up 4.8%. This statistic is added to a series of numbers considered disappointing, especially in real estate and industry, and suggests that the recovery ran out of steam a bit faster than expected.

Intel Features

On the side of values, the salvo of quarterly results continues on Wall Street. The microprocessor giant Intel on Tuesday said the "best quarter in its history, with net income of $ 2.9 billion, better than expected, and a turnover exceeding its forecasts and also market expectations.Intel shares gain 1.67% to 21.36 dollars.

Always on the side of values, the U.S. group Northrop Grumman defense (3.13% to 56.99 U.S. dollars) has also announced Tuesday after the close of Wall Street of its intention to separate from all its shipyards, it would close one on the Gulf of Mexico within three years.

In the battle over economic strategy, which raged in the country G8/G20 meeting in Toronto, Nicolas Sarkozy ranks clearly on the side of Barack Obama's hostile plans rigor precipitates. "For France, fiscal consolidation is a long-term need [...] the stimulus must be from 2011, gradually, depending on individual circumstances," said one EU source.

Favorable cures severe austerity in Greece, Portugal and Spain, Nicolas Sarkozy calls for budget adjustments "progressive" in France and Germany, from 2011, with "not too many taxes."

The fragile economic and financial worries Europe G8 and G20. "Our partners Americans and Canadians fear the impact of austerity plans on resuming" said one EU source.The health of banks on the Old Continent is also a major concern in the United States. "There's nothing to fear from that quarter. Our banks are very strong. The results of stress test in late July is going to cheer the markets, "say the Europeans.

Faced with the Americans, Germans and Britons facing the G8 steadfast defenders of rigor. "A sustainable growth can not result from a fiscal policy based on the debt!" Repeats Angela Merkel. "Our public finances are in such a state, we have no other choice than a hard adjustment," he defends David Cameron.

Within this debate, Nicolas Sarkozy wants to distinguish itself from its European partners. Recognizing the need to reduce fiscal deficits in France, he will not rush, giving priority to pension reform.If markets were not so vigilant, he would gladly own the warning of Barack Obama: "do not overdo it in 2010 … or 2011.

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – After having doubted the ability of countries to cope with budget deficits, the markets are concerned now plans rigorously implemented by European states. Are they become schizophrenic?

Eric Bleine – I do not know if we can speak of schizophrenia, but I find the reactions of financial markets is excessive. This is not surprising when one considers that most large companies in the CAC 40 are majority owned by U.S. pension funds, and increasingly by players from emerging markets. If individuals are continuing to ignore the actions, it will increase, and financial markets continue to be volatile. In this context, I advise investors to focus on their process of investment. In other words, to believe in what they do and do not move during moments of extreme doubt.It is when the visibility is poor economy and financial and prices of listed assets are low it takes to earn money. The doubts the current market is understandable but exaggerated. He should know how to take them by buying now, taking as a necessary condition to have investment horizons reasonable (between 18 months and 3 years) does not get into the position of having to liquidate its portfolio under stress specific personal.

European equities are they really excluded?

Financial markets have still not integrated as European companies are financially sound, well managed despite the crisis and they have high margins and refinanced debt. The euro zone is not in a situation so bad as that.The proof that more than European ones, are also international companies which derive a substantial part of its sales in the U.S. or in emerging countries. If fears about the euro area are so important is because pension funds are selling their fears, "the fear". What explains this high volatility. But I guess they will stop selling because valuation levels as low and reassuring news that we are beginning to have on the sustainability of our currency, the euro.

How do you manage the allocation of your portfolio between defensive stocks and cyclical stocks?

Overall, I'm quite recently strengthened financial securities in defensive stocks. I have preferences for certain banking stocks and am overweight, representing 18% of portfolio value Central.Despite the pressure around these companies, the current prices seem particularly attractive and excessive criticism. We focus on the big European banks such as BNP Paribas, Santander, Intesa, UniCredit, Deutsche Bank or Barclays. They are strong and come out winners in my opinion this crisis, the market does not take into account.

It is a rather surprising position in the current context. Other atypical cyclical stocks?

Yes, because we are also overweighted car values (5.32% of portfolio) as DaimlerChrysler, Faurecia and Michelin. For example, Michelin will benefit from new standards that will enable tire manufacturers to sell products with high added values.Furthermore, we focus Faurecia, because we believe that Faurecia has good chances of success in China by supporting the rise of automobile manufacturers in emerging countries

I'm also positive and closer to consensus on technology stocks (11.55% of portfolio) invested with Atos, Steria, STMicroelectronics. There is a real demand for computer services and technology assets. Finally, I like also valued as Lufthansa is one of the few aerospace companies to have limited its losses in 2008 and which we believe will be winners of an industry concentration. However, although it benefits from the dollar, we excluded EADS for which we still have some reservations.

A second half what should we expect?

We look forward to a calmer second half versus the first.We're going out of concerns about the sustainability of the euro area and the ability of states to refinance. The fears will gradually dissipate and the risk premium with them. This should drive us as a first step to a CAC 40-3800 points. Then the market should realize that the growth of European countries will not be as catastrophe we would suggest. This gives a potential ACC 40-4000 points, why not towards the end of the year. With the portfolio that I currently constituted, I am ready for the increase in ACC 40.

Will it happen to food packaging, plastic chairs or bumper? The Federation of plastics, which brings together producers of plastic products, is sounding the alarm. "This is a situation unprecedented in the plastic. Our suppliers of polymers evoke technical reasons, cases of "force majeure" and do not honor their deliveries, "said Bruno Etienne, its president.

He complains of the total opacity surrounding the subject. In less than three months, the phenomenon has spread to most chemists. In a letter to his clients, a leading industry refers to "a situation of force majeure for a mechanical problem. A spokesman said "not able to comment in the present context," adding that the group has written to its customers and does not give more details.Rhodia did not wish either to speak on this subject, nor the Union of Basic Organic Chemistry (SCOBA). PlasticsEurope, an association of European producers of plastics, boot button: "The problem of availability of raw materials is not limited to plastics, but is much broader. Polypropylene is most affected. "

A response that plastics companies deny. "There is still some time, the European plants polymers suffered from overcapacity. They could even export to China. Does it change? "Asks Bruno Estienne. He wondered if a half-word part of European production is shipped to China, to the detriment of businesses he represents.The producers of polymers are in fact, in their majority, started in the construction of production units of polymers in Asia, but all are not yet operational. This theory has a flaw: the prices of plastics in China are structurally lower than those in Europe, where prices through May rose by an average of 70% over one year.

However, in 2009, production fell by 20% and has increased by 9% during the first four months of the year."Some factories were closed in 2009, and the groups are reluctant to reopen them," said Jean-Marc Manducher, CEO Ronax, a buying group that has identified eight cases of force majeure in a few months! In addition, the European prudential standards discourage the restart of some production units.

SMEs under pressure

"We are caught between the chemists in our principals," said Bruno Etienne, who wishes to hold a roundtable meeting to identify the difficulties currently crossed by the industry and evaluate the time needed to return to normal.

If the survival of businesses does not seem threatened, some are already struggling. One example for manufacturers of garden furniture, whose business is seasonal excellence, and whose unfilled orders will not be caught.T automobile sector is also likely to be affected, if manufacturers of technical parts (bumpers, interior trim parts in engines) are not promptly supplied.

The warning on the accounts Krief Group launched by the auditors of the company may be only the first phase of legal setbacks Louis Petiet. Official Bulletin, the alert procedure "very advanced", according to "Echoes" is a prevention of business difficulties. Petiet Louis, through its group Bernard Krief Consulting (BKC)-since renamed Krief Group-has multiplied over the past three years the buyout on the brink of liquidation. And since early 2010, he faced great difficulties.

This is the case of Heuliez, which he eventually sold the shares to an investor, Charles Mirchi. The automaker, which Petit Louis has never made the 16 million euro capital promised to bar the commercial court, awaiting a new buyer.Other companies are being liquidated, as the chain of stores in Soho gadgets, or industrial Isotherma, Havre.

In Alsace, the former two problems DMC: DMC SA (ex-DMC thread) on one side and the other DMC fabric. Two companies taken over by Louis Petiet. The liquidators DMC SA before the Tribunal de Commerce de Paris. Louis Petiet has still not made the 8 million euros promised in the takeover of the company. Authorised agents would like the company is recapitalized by the current minority shareholders who would become the majority. Such an operation would be catastrophic for BKC to lose control of one of its only really profitable companies.'Stocks of DMC SA alone represent a real source of income for two years, "a close case.

In addition, an unsuccessful candidate for the redemption of DMC, the French manufacturer of textiles SA Blanchard, also before the court. It calls for the cancellation of the recovery plan by BKC and wishes to represent his own recovery plan. The court decided to consolidate the two cases and the next hearing will be held September 8 No faxing payday loans.

Broken Promises

Second case, the DMC Fabric, whose activities have been grouped with a sign of furniture, Authentica, within SAIC Velcorex. Louis Petiet hoped "synergies". Today, the liquidator "examines the responsibilities of Louis Petiet, including how he managed DMC Fabric and Authentica," said a source close to the record."Cash Authentica (advances paid by customers) would, a priori, was used to cover losses Velcorex SAIC," said the legal representative, which states that "it did nothing illegal, since it is the same company. However, this does nothing to the rules commonly applied by a transferee company in difficulty, meant to work on his recovery.

"After regaining Authentica, Louis Petiet did nothing for the company, not even changed the vehicle registration cards," said the liquidator. Louis Petiet highlights purchases of raw materials it was made for Authentica.What is relatively little in terms of commitments.

The alert procedure

The Commercial Code provides that the auditors (ACC)-expected to certify the company's accounts, can alert the president of a company if they find "facts likely to affect the continuous operation. The president has fifteen days to respond. Otherwise, or if the reply does not guarantee the continuity of the operation, the ACC is deliberating the board of directors (or supervisory) on the facts found. If the resulting provisions are not met or that the company's survival is threatened, the ACC establishes a special report. The Commercial Court may be entered. This can lead to legal redress.

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New thunderclap in the daily press. After the economic daily La Tribune and Le Monde in late May in the coming days, it was the turn of the Parisien and Aujourd'hui en France to seek a partner. Yesterday, the Amaury group acknowledged having asked the bank Rothschild and Co. to conduct a strategic review to examine all options to bring to the whole compound of general daily Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, their printing, their distribution system (SDVP) and the governed. This announcement confirms the information revealed in the morning by the Lettre de L'Expansion. Le Parisien is facing a difficult situation and the need to invest heavily in growth drivers such as new media and online paris.With the help of the bank board, the group chaired by Marie-Odile Amaury consider all possible forms of partnerships, the simple pooling of resources to the partnership business, or capital. "Many policy options are under scrutiny. Special care is applied to research alliance in the new media or creating new products. A partial backing of Paris is part of the perimeter of the study but no decision taken yet, "states the group in a brief statement issued yesterday evening. Internally, the wording is "in shock … Little has filtered communication internally and few would actually believe even if the tension was palpable from the start in the fall of the chief editor," says one reporter.

The statement said however: "The family wants to keep Amaury majority control of his group to continue its investment policy and ensure its development as it has for a long time." All these activities would, as the group is profitable and coupled both titles – Le Parisien and Aujourd'hui in France – had in 2009 paid circulation of 488,553 copies France, down 4.7% (OJD).

Implemented in 2011

Another certainty, this strategic study does not include activities with sports daily L'Équipe and ASO, the organizer of sporting events like the Tour de France. The time that the strategic review being conducted and that strategic options are discussed, no concrete implementation should take place before 2011.

For several weeks, rumors spoke of a possible sale of the entire group Amaury.The refusal, in February, from the group to take the presidency of the Cooperative Parisian dailies in Presstalis had raised some questions. Groups such as Lagardère and Bolloré had then been cited as potential buyers. The Lagardère group is familiar with the file because already owns 25% stake in Amory, against 75% to the family Amaury. Last week, Arnaud Lagardere had also reiterated its interest in the family group, saying "buyer of all or part (…) if the family does not want it, we will respect and then go forth." Problem, its interest mainly concerns the sports industry (ASO), as he himself pointed out at the launch of its new sports center, Lagardère Unlimited. Arnaud Lagardere has any future lunch with Marie-Odile Amaury.

"We see the gentleman behind the great communicator." Thus did Laurence Parisot commented on Monday, the first decision of the boss of Publicis Group, the new President of the French Association of Private Enterprise (Afep, which includes hundreds of large companies including those listed on the CAC 40). Maurice Levy has proposed to his counterpart Medef code to complete their common governance, to promote parity. The text now recommends that boards of directors (or supervisory) have at least 20% of women within three years and 40% by six years, these deadlines will act over the arrival due mandates.Some recommendations that match the proposal passed earlier this year by the Assembly at the initiative of the UMP MP Marie-Jo Zimmermann, with the support group president Jean-Francois Cope, who must still pass the Senate .

But the draft law provides for sanctions, including revocation of appointments of directors who flout the rule. Nothing like it in the code AFEP-MEDEF: all the betting is that firms will not dent their image. This is the principle of "comply or explain" ("comply or explain"), which Maurice Levy thinks it will be very effective: "If the rule is not applied, it should explain why in its annual report and before his shareholders.This is the strongest thing that can be imposed on a board of directors. "This idea of self-regulation had given birth to the code AFEP-MEDEF, allowing companies to avoid legislation on executive compensation (parachutes gilded, stock options …). Similarly, Maurice Levy believes that "the law is no longer necessary" on women directors. Marie-Jo Zimmermann replied "very pleased that companies show their willingness to move forward" but hopes that his bill "continue its path. He took this sword of Damocles that things start to move, we'll see in two or three years if we can remove it.In addition, continued its elected Moselle, my text provides a resolution of the board annually on equality across the company: hiring, pay, career development … ".

Bernadette Chirac at LVMH

"We may not like quotas, but there are circumstances where a little help can ease the situation," said Laurence Parisot, who "companies are at the forefront. We never talk about discrimination suffered by women in top management. The subject is still in the agenda of the "Social Agenda 2010" of Public Service."And we talk enough about the risk of decline with future territorial advisors," says the boss of bosses, the voting could be first past the post, whereas the regional advisers are currently elected on joint lists.

According Afep, women accounted for 10.4% of the directors of the CAC 40 in late 2009, and is expected to rise to 15.7% this year. Carole Lewiner will be ushered to the board of Bouygues, Laurence Dors at Capgemini, Meglena Kuneva at BNP Paribas in Fatine Layt Imeri … Without forgetting Bernadette Chirac at LVMH.

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The trustees will have no choice. Friday, March 19, Herv? Novelli, Secretary of State for Trade, has signed a decree listing the benefits which must be included in the annual package paid by owners to day management of the building. Only services that are not included in this list will therefore in future be charged as extra by the trustee.

For example, the detention and the retention of certain records (plans, rules of ownership …) are included in the package. Same principle for the holding of general meeting, whichever occurs on the days and time slots indicated in the contract.All new contracts signed after July 1 must comply with this new rule.

This order lists the tasks of daily management purposes only established by the National Council of Consumer Affairs (CNC), which he believes should not be charged extra. The vast majority of contracts trustee voluntarily complies this list, as their unions had requested them. Most owners have therefore already contracts under the new rules. But a small minority of trustees continued to ignore. The order will force them to toe the line.

Herve Novelli has however not been satisfactory associations consumer no fax cash advances .They wanted the order to go further, especially to cut short the abusive practices of some trustees accused of inventing such new costs (administrative costs for time spent making photocopies for example) and to charge off package.

"A very imperfect compromise"

Association officials condominium (Arc) was also condemned in advance the draft order, saying it would allow such trustees to continue to pay more to hold general meeting in the evening. For the General Confederation of tenants, that order is "a very imperfect compromise between consumer expectations and resistance professionals.It gives no definition of the current management, poses no limit to the abuse of special services and create difficulties of interpretation concerning the list of benefits. "

But Herve Novelli does not intend to abandon this topic. He asked the Committee on unfair terms in order to have deep expertise on the unfairness or otherwise of all clauses in contracts.

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The Committee approved the December 8 and 9 "advisory for a package of proposals to strengthen regulation of capital and liquidity with the objective of strengthening the banking sector," he said in a statement.

These measures will "respond to the lessons of the crisis in the regulation, supervision and risk management of banks," said the committee.

The proposals for capital and liquidity will strengthen the banks and create a financial banking system and healthier, "said the chairman, Nout Wellink, who is also president of the Dutch Central Bank.

It is, however, that a "consultation document" and not a final text, recalled Wednesday a spokesman of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, including hosting meetings.

The 27 "wise men" had already announced in early July an increase of Basel II, introduced in 2004 and requiring banks with a capital ratio weighted overall risk incurred by financial institutions.

Avoiding a new "Lehman Brothers"

To avoid the disastrous consequences of a new financial crisis including the collapse of financial institutions of systemic importance, as the bankruptcy of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the Basel Committee grilled for several months on a building rules governing the banking sector.

In his new proposals, the committee wants to strengthen the quality and transparency of the core capital Tier 1 (core capital of a bank), allowing institutions to better absorb potential losses.

He also wants to improve the level of capital to protect facilities including activities on derivatives and repos (repos).

Debt ratio

Banks should also establish a ratio of debt to contain their debt, financial buffers to cope with difficult situations and a minimum level of liquidity.

The impact of these measures on the sector should be analyzed in the first half of 2010 with the aim to introduce by the end of 2012.

The committee, founded in 1974 and composed of the governors of 27 central banks worldwide, "will ensure that the implementation of new standards is consistent with the financial market stability and sustainable economic growth," assured Nout Wellink.

Central bankers also want to introduce a period of tolerance and accompanying measures "for a period sufficiently long to allow a smooth transition to new standards.