lefigaro.fr / jdf.com: The beginning of 2010 seems to mark a resurgence of activity. Is it time to review mergers and acquisitions?
Herve Mangin: The market mergers and acquisitions work for periods of three to four years from 1997 to 2000, then 2003 to 2007. Since 2009, we are in the trough of the wave. Current levels are the lowest ever achieved for five years. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of deals announced declined by 53% and 32% between 2008 and 2009. The market mergers and acquisitions have obviously suffered from the economic crisis but also the draining of financial markets, preventing firms from refinancing.Since late last year, we see a resumption of operations, with an increase of nearly 50% in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.
How can we explain this turnaround?
The economic visibility improves, credit conditions are more flexible, companies have taken preemptive measures to deal with the crisis and some have a large cash cushion. There are two ways to use this cash, either redistribute it to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases, or generate growth through investments or mergers and acquisitions. However, growth remains soft, the high level of taxes, consumer debt and high unemployment. It is better to buy existing capacity rather than creating new plants that use rates are poor.
The takeover of Cadbury by Kraft has yet taken place earlier this year.
The operation took place earlier this year because it was strategically very important for Kraft. This is also not expected to return to a debt level more comfortable to launch its offer. He attacked as soon as market conditions are loaned. Another symbolic aspect of this acquisition: it illustrates the need to increase the cash portion of the offering to complete the transaction. In other words, the larger the share in cash, the higher the transaction was likely to occur. Then again Kraft could do so only because the visibility has improved.
What is special about your fund Axa Opportunities?
The management of our fund is unusual to begin by targeting predators, their strategic and financial interest to generate external growth.Once we've found a predator, we want to know what would be the best "prey". And only from there, we are studying the viability of the project on a financial plan. So we try to place us before purchase. Operations in 2010 will be more strategic than financial. We focus on companies that have cash and are facing challenges in terms of growth, diversification, and whose price is underestimated. Our fund is invested in particular sectors of health, chemicals, oil and telecoms. According to a study co-published by Boston Consulting Group and UBS in January 2010, 20% of CEOs will make an acquisition of at least 500 million euros in turnover this year. Groups that have the greatest appetite are in insurance, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
The portfolio is invested two thirds in mergers and acquisitions and third in special situations (change of management, disposals important modifying the profile of a group …, Ed), while in 2009 the allocation was balanced. Our pocket liquidity is still below 10% and amounts to about 2% today. This pocket is more tactical than strategic: we do not intend to play on the cash to take advantage of market reversals. And especially since our fund is PEAable (the fund must invest at least 75% in European equities).
Do you ever happen to take positions outside Europe?
Absolutely. Having decided to adopt an approach focused on the predator to detect targets the most interesting, sometimes I take positions in securities outside Europe when the target detected there.But this represents no more than 8-10% of the portfolio. For example, I have a line on Mead Johnson, an American company specializing in the infant food because it is an attractive prey for Danone and Nestle, in particular because of its positions in emerging markets.
What are your beliefs about the four areas you are most invested (health, telecommunications, chemicals, petroleum)?
In telecoms we further expect further consolidation of domestic markets as large cross-border transactions. A reconciliation between Telenet and Mobistar France Telecom would thus solve the strategic problems of France Telecom in Belgium. Health, which is a major provider of mergers and acquisitions, should suffer the same fate as laboratories continue to suffer from the rise of generics.Sanofi, which has made more than 8 billion of acquisitions last year, would buy biotech and further diversification. For this, Stada, Shire or Stallergenes are good prey. As for the chemicals and oil, they should see competition from emerging countries, notably China and India grow. SWFs should also be present, but more on that equity takeovers.
What about bank stocks? The sector is expected to undergo further restructuring, and Societe Generale would be again at the heart of debates.
For bank stocks, is a question of timing. From 1997 to 2000, banks were in second position on the market for mergers and acquisitions behind telecoms. Similarly between 2003 and 2007 but this time behind the property.I do not see them go top of the list before 2011, because of uncertainty about Basel 3. They should instead carry out asset sales as a first step. Regarding Societe Generale, which could at some point the desire to attract a European rival. In this case, a French white knight would come to her rescue (including BNP Paribas).
Why do not you invested in the car?
I am not invested in this sector because the European players are more predators than prey. Peugeot and Volkswagen are currently taking stakes in Asia for example.And anyway, it is better to invest on groups whose fundamentals are attractive, which is often not the case of the automobile.
On what themes you bet?
The race to growth lies in emerging countries will also be one of the most important theme in 2010-2011. We see particular for Kraft, who has not bought Cadbury confectionery in the UK, but to gain strategic positions in emerging markets. Sanofi has just acquired a vaccine manufacturer in India, and continues to build in China by 2020 40.000 new hospitals should be built, and 90% of the population should receive special protection. Others include Vivendi, which acquired the Brazilian GVT or Heineken has acquired the activities of the Mexican brewer Femsa to 7.6 billion dollars.An offer of GDF International Power also has a sense of perspective in particular geographical synergy in the Middle East.
What are your plans for 2010?
Now that the means of external growth are met, the operations will be resumed. 2010 marks the return of mergers and acquisitions, ie the beginning of the wave. This does not mean that we will experience a bubble market and we'll find the record levels of 2007. But clearly there is potential to find a standardized level. We nevertheless believe that large transactions will only be until the second half of 2010.We should save up 15% to 20% in 2010, the market for mergers and acquisitions.
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