Each has experienced: it is always extremely difficult to move from average to a respectable level of excellence, whether you are a pianist or a tennis player. The same is true for nations attain the status of "rich country" is not a foregone conclusion. Even when recording a growth of 10% per annum, and for three decades, which has enabled the Chinese to multiply their individual standard of living in a little over a generation.
Economic development is certainly not an exact science, but the trees do not ascend to heaven. Even in the jungle of state capitalism. There is no example in history where the growing disheveled inflected not only from a certain stage.By examining the career of some forty countries since the Second World War, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Kwanho Shin Park and discovered that the expansion slows inexorably past the threshold of 16,740 dollars to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita. Anxious to establish historical comparisons, the three economists have reduced all data in constant currency (dollars at 2005 prices). Their study is published by the NBER (When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China).
This law, the French and their European neighbors have suffered in the early 1970s. In France, 1973 has been the hinge, GDP individual having reached 16,904 dollars. Over the past seven years – the reign of De Gaulle and Pompidou – per capita growth was galloping at a rate of 4.6%.She fell to 2.2% during the seven-year following that of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, a decrease of 2.4% of scheme. The United States had known since 1968 a reversal of the same nature and magnitude slightly higher (2.5%, according to calculations by three economists).
This break in France coincided with the first oil shock, which our countrymen seem to have still not delivered. Since then, it has ceased to lament the state of "crisis". The French have not realized that they had recently experienced a "golden age a quarter century of rapid growth inaugurated by the Marshall Plan and the postwar recovery," said Barry Eichengreen and his two confreres . Fourastie what John called the "Thirty Glorious Years".
China has a number of vulnerabilities
The scenario is in reality always the same: the reconstruction periods are marked by exceptional productivity gains.They do not constitute a sustainable standard. Farmworkers become industrial country imports the new technologies which increase its effectiveness. But once this revenue exhausted, we must innovate and find other vectors of prosperity. Furthermore the threshold of 16,740 dollars, the three economists put forward another concept: things become more difficult when a country obtains a level equivalent to 57% of GDP in the most advanced economy, one that portrays "on the technological frontier "(the United States in this case).
For its part, China still seems quite distant from these two criteria, especially the second (the Chinese GDP was only 19.7% that of the U.S. in 2007). But should it maintain its annual rate of 10%, it would affect the level of fateful 16,740 dollars per capita in 2014. The danger zone is reached in just three years.Barry Eichengreen prognostic so that "a significant slowdown in Chinese growth is imminent."
It is even more positive that China presents to him a number of vulnerabilities, making the course more difficult to cross than others. The observation of the forty countries studied shows that the transition is particularly difficult for a country to an authoritarian political regime, the industrial workforce is over 20% of the workforce and has a weak currency. Korea offers the previous "one centered on manufacturing exports and helped by an undervalued currency, with a consequent sharp fall in its expansion in the 1990s, culminating in the 1997 financial crisis.
Brazil is a land of opportunity
The study envisages a significant shift for China's annual growth would average between 6.1% and 7% over the decade, and would fall another notch (5% to 6.2% between 2021 and 2030 ). Barry Eichengreen believes that "Chinese authorities are convinced that a slowdown will intervene." Beijing seems sincere when he sets a target of 7% annual growth for the five-year plan 2011-2015.
The new emphasis on domestic demand and services, instead of all bet on the industry and export, is designed to circumvent the curse that threatens the country catch up. Many of them never get out of the "middle income trap" (around 16,500 dollars) for lack of a successful transformation.What they think the French have managed to "obtain the status of high-income countries" and since 1973 the GDP per capita has more than doubled. However, this is not the case in Latin America, said Barry Eichengreen. "Brazil is a country of the future and will remain" in the words attributed to General de Gaulle in the 1960s.