"The year 2012? It will be for managers of private two-tier one year, with a side business confident in their investment and hiring, and the other companies in the uncertainty and lack of visibility on their backlog. I think this is true for regions: some are well oriented, others display recruitment forecasts downward, "says Pierre Lamblin, Director of Studies of Apec. According to the Association for the employment of executives, three regions are traditionally large purveyors of jobs: the Ile-de-France, Rhône-Alpes and Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur (PACA), with 45% of GDP and over half of employment in the private sector framework.

Occupational mobility

This year, the Paris Region companies provide hiring 67,900 to 87,800 frames. "Although the Ile-de-France is a region of opportunities, we note that some executives to leave the better quality of life from 35-40 years. Conversely, applying the Paris region makes sense for executives in the provinces, for example after a hiccup or when the ambitions of growth are not up to par, "said Didier Gaillard, CEO of the firm Expectra. A study by Trendeo on employment in the territories has also established that the Ile-de-France, between 2009 and 2011, has a balance of negative job creation of over 7,000 positions, while Aquitaine shows a positive net balance of 12,340 positions.

In Rhone-Alpes, hiring forecasts recorded by Apec range between 16,600 and 19,900 jobs. Assets of the region? Two strong economic centers around Lyon and Grenoble, a structure of skilled jobs and a good balance between industry and services, type of activity and company size, which smoothes the effects of any economic downturns. "There's always a nice dynamic in sectors such as IT, where even we suffer from a shortage of candidates with hard to fill a good half of the jobs entrusted to us. Rhone-Alpes region is however that manages to attract candidates from other geographical origins, "says Jerome Lieutier, regional head of Expectra. With 61% of executives recently installed, the region is one that seems to attract as many newcomers to the Southwest (57%) and Southeast (59%) says a recent study by Michael Page on the situation frames into regions. In the same study, two thirds of executives surveyed nationally had changed region at their last job transfers.

For Paca, the situation appears more mixed. Companies counting on 11,100 to 14,200 recruits executives, representing an increase from – 10% to 15% depending on the scenario compared to the previous year, according to figures from Apec. Regional Sales Manager for the firm Kobaltt, which operates in the business accounting finance, engineering and IT and telecoms, Gregory Blazquez confirms: "In our business, Paca has declined since the end of last year . "

9000 industrial jobs in Midi-Pyrenees

Although relying on smaller volumes of recruitment, other regions have their own in the game This is the case of the Auvergne, driven by the dynamism of Michelin, or Midi-Pyrenees, which displays recruitment needs in the industry (including Aeronautics) of 9000 new employees in the next two years.

Regional Manager for the Western region Expectra, Isabelle Rivard also recalls that the Brittany and Pays de la Loire together with sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, biotherapy, or IT and telecoms: "In this last sector, we face a real shortage of candidates, which has always existed, but was strengthened. "The West wins the prize for satisfaction with 94% of managers satisfied with the region in which they work, according to study of Michael Page on frameworks in regions. 

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The ras-le-bol rises among users of TGV Nantes / Angers / Le Mans / Paris. And also the response … The members of the collective defense of Subscribers Line Atlantic (Ladala) took a new step in their protest movement against the repeated delays of the station, on the line leading to the capital. The trick to reach the railway portfolio. To do this, they have not hesitated to launch a "ghost TGV" massively by booking every seat of a TGV line in question. Of seats they will not play of course. Each member buying between 5 and 10 seats, 800 seats have already been blocked, all classes, as pointed out this morning on RTL Pascal Mignot, the representative of the collective.

Reaction except the SNCF, the train should travel empty, which would result in a serious shortfall. Because the protesters are concerned subscribers, a status that gives them access to places for a mere $ 1.50. And the date chosen is not trivial since the 250 members of Ladala have set Wednesday, May 16, the eve of Ascension Day and the weekend so great starts.

Greece of tickets

This is not the first time Ladala tries to voice his displeasure. Mid-March, the group had launched a strike of tickets and passes, along with daily rallies in trains and on platforms. Faced with the continuing delays and lack of financial consequences for the SNCF, the association thus increases the pressure, also taking on its website a statement of the duration of the movement, and delays on this line.

Faced with the accumulation of failures since the schedule changes in December 2011, their demands are clear: rate freeze on packages (over 500 euros per month), on-time to avoid disputes with employers, indemnity 2.5 euros per 10 minutes late, and got 150 euro for subscribers to compensate for failures of January, February and March. In total, officials estimate that the collective duration of 14 hours cumulative delays over this period.

Side of the Authority of the quality of service in transport (AQST, dependent on the Ministry of Ecology), although the figures show a surge in failures since November, with up to 30% of trains delayed . But since February, the trend seems to be improving. Apparently not enough to calm those subscribers, still wearing a badge "subscribers on strike," which also launched an online petition and sent a letter to presidential candidates. Denouncing a 18% increase in travel time on an ordinary trip to Le Mans / Paris, they have finally created a Twitter account inviting followers to list all the failures of the Atlantic line. An initiative that has been emulated the Creusot subscribers and Amiens have since joined the movement.

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Nothing works for Nokia and its new boss Stephen Elop. A week after reducing its forecasts for mobile phones in the first half of this fiscal year, the Finnish group said the extent of damage. The group, which is losing its world of telephony in favor of South Korea's Samsung, has declined by 29% of its turnover in the first quarter, to 7.35 billion euros. Nokia says it has shipped 82 million mobile phones in the first quarter, with a decline in sales in this activity by 40%.

The result remains in the red, as in the last quarter of 2011. But the operating loss increased to EUR 1.3 billion. Now the two core businesses of Nokia show losses. In mobile phones, the operating loss represents 3% of sales against 10% more profit for the same period of 2011 free credit score. In equipment for telecommunications networks, Nokia Siemens Networks' book including the mobile network of Free, the operating loss reached 5% of revenues.

Especially in the short term, the outlook remains bleak. The loss in mobile phones should be of similar magnitude in the second trimestre.Les sales of Nokia mobile also collapse in North America and Chine.La only glimmer of hope rests on smartphones equipped with a Operating from Microsoft, including the aircraft from the Lumia provided the U.S. with T-Mobile and AT & T.

The main presidential candidates have one thing in common: they announce tax increases for years to come. None of them claim to return to zero deficit by cutting public expenditure only: they know that the remedy would be too much for the French social model. In addition, candidates are aware that economic growth alone will not fill the public coffers.

On this point, economists are even more cautious. Nicolas Sarkozy expects a GDP growth of 2% from 2014, Francois Hollande 2% in 2014 and 2.25% thereafter. "It would be wiser to predict growth of 1.5%," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. "And above all, to the same level, growth will generate less tax revenues spontaneously that during the expansion phase of pre-2007", warning Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE.

Mechanically, when the GDP is up, after the mandatory deductions. More profit, this means more corporate tax (IS), higher wages, better social security contributions and income tax (IR), etc.. But according to the type of growth, the correlation is stronger or weaker.

The economy of the early 2000s, characterized by a housing boom, was particularly conducive to tax revenue. And transfer taxes, a tax on real estate transactions, they reported to local authorities 9.6 billion in 2007, against 4.7 billion in 2000. The revenues of the ISF have almost doubled (2.2 billion in 2000, 4 billion in 2007). "Growth was also driven by household spending. A boon to the State whose main tax, VAT, sits on consumption, "adds Jean-Christophe Caffet. Finally, the SI was doped up to 2007 by record profits of banks. In a 2008 report, Philippe Marini, then general reporter (UMP) of the Senate Finance Committee, spoke of the hypothesis of a "bubble" of € 10 billion on tax burden.

"Adjustment Period"

A bubble that broke with the financial crisis. Scarce, taxes and social contributions decreased in 2009. The IS has collapsed, yielding 21 billion in 2009 against 51 billion in 2007. Since then, the tax burden returned to their pre-crisis level, with the exception of the SI (39 billion in 2011). "But if there had been no crisis, levies would exceed 23 billion that they are today. There is indeed a structural loss of revenue, "said Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC.

In addition, revenues will not recover their train of yesteryear. "The growth model due to housing boom and strong consumer is finished. We have entered a period of adjustment, where wages will rise slightly. VAT, transfer duties, but also social contributions will grow less quickly, "said Jean-Christophe Caffet. So over the spontaneous surge of revenues, as before 2007. That's why taxpayers are involved since 2010. And if the economic growth forecast by the candidates was not at the rendezvous, higher taxes might be higher than 50 billion program of Francois Hollande and 16 billion provided by Nicolas Sarkozy.

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"My proposals are known, I made 60, which will not prevent me to add one or two during the campaign," warned Tuesday Francois Hollande, the move in the Drôme. Indeed, the Socialist candidate has completed his list of promises last week. On the theme of the University and Research, Monday to Nancy on the family and gender, in Reims for Women's Day; for associations, Saturday and finally on low wages, on Sunday M6 , in "Capital".

At first glance, additions marginal to the program announced in late January, which accounted for 20 billion annual expenditure. Yet, according to Enterprise Institute, which projects sales of the leading candidates (www.debateco.fr assumptions and calculations), the addition is not negligible: in a week, from 3.9 to 6.5 billion of additional annual expenditure.

A real public service early childhood

The largest piece is the creation of places for young children, with the goal of "creating a true public service early childhood." The think tank is assumed between 200,000 and 400,000 people plus, half in and half manger among childminders (for reference, the 2009-2012 plan, the government provides 200,000 spaces created). Result: 1.8 to 3.7 billion spending per year by 2017.

These amounts include the provision of services for young children (Paje, paid by the family allowance funds in custody cases by a "nanny" approved), the construction of nurseries and their staff costs, tax credits on income, net of savings on benefits paid to parents on parental leave free online credit report. "This will encourage the return of parents to the labor market, with positive effects on value creation and contrasted the unemployment rate," said the Business Institute.

Second major expense: the change in calculating the minimum wage. At the current formula, based mainly on inflation, would add a "bonus" equal to half the growth rate. Companies bear most of the cost, but public finances will be affected, mainly in two ways: higher salaries for civil servants – who can not be less than the minimum wage – and reduced charges granted between 1 and 1.6 SMIC. The total estimated cost is between 1.3 and 1.6 billion euros in 2017.

"These measures, the Socialist candidate did not state financing, in addition to others in the draft (…), whose cost does not appear in the detail of spending 20 billion new release by the PS, "notes the Institute: ecological transition, valued at $ 1.8 billion for the state, very high rates over 100% of the territory (1 billion), hires employment center (0.8 to 1.2 billion), energy retrofit one million homes a year and establishment of a fifth branch of social security to fund addiction (to encrypt).

]]> http://sundialsnakes.com/the-program-gets-heavier-holland-5-billion/feed/ 0 http://sundialsnakes.com/eurozone-lull-in-greece-pressure-on-spain/ http://sundialsnakes.com/eurozone-lull-in-greece-pressure-on-spain/#comments Mon, 12 Mar 2012 01:56:25 +0000 admin http://sundialsnakes.com/eurozone-lull-in-greece-pressure-on-spain/  

After Greece, out of bankruptcy risk through the release of a second bailout of 130 billion euros, it was Spain who finds himself in the crosshairs of the Eurogroup, meeting on Monday evening in Brussels. The Spanish finance minister will have to explain on the skids deficits Spanish before his peers, the European Commission and the ECB President.

The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, had a surprise, on March 2, alongside the European Council, stating that Spain would build his 2012 budget with a deficit target of 5.8% of GDP, while that agreed with the EU was 4.4%, to reach 3% of GDP deficit in 2013.

The market reaction was not long in coming. Following this, the cost of borrowing from Spain to 10 years jumped to nearly 5% more than for the first time in months, that of Italy. Guardian of the future "fiscal pact", the European Commission ordered a "serious blunder", brandished the threat of financial sanctions and sent experts to Madrid to assess the fiscal situation. Last year, the Spanish public deficit soared more than expected to reach 8.51% of GDP in late 2011.

Threat of sanctions

"There is no questioning of objectives," says the Spanish Minister of Economy, Luis De Guindos, in an interview Sunday on ABC newspaper. "Spain is a loyal member of the EU who feels bound by the European fiscal rules," he says.

Engaged in a very severe austerity measures, faces a general strike in late March because of its reform of the labor market, Spain is weighed down by losses of its regions, which have slipped to 2.9% of GDP against only 1.3% under-the Madrid region meets its objectives, which weighs heavily on central government accounts.

Barely out of the Greek crisis, "the euro area can not afford a new speculative attack," recalls one in Brussels. The Commission will ask the government to submit a plan "credible" to bring deficits to 3% in 2013, implying a say in Brussels on the draft budget 2012 Spanish.

Monday night, finance ministers from the euro area will give the green light to launch the second program of aid to Greece. Of 130 billion euros, the IMF should be involved up to 18 billion, said Christine Lagarde.

Even the Germans say they are reassured about the situation in Greece. "I am confident that the measures taken hard by the Greek government will put the country on the road to recovery," said German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, unwilling to speculate on a third plan to help … To parry , the European Central Bank will continue its buybacks of bonds on the secondary market, ensures Coeuré Benedict, a member of the Executive Board of the ECB to Japanese newspaper Nikkei.

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Thierry Martel speaks for the first time since his arrival eventful last October at the head of Groupama. This 48-year polytechnic has climbed the ladder of mutual group. He was propelled to the Managing Director following the sudden ouster of Jean Azema, in the fall. The new boss is going to present the annual results in heavy losses, marked by a series of writedowns on Greece and its major shareholdings, including Societe Generale and Veolia. To strengthen the solvency of the group, the leader began a series of disposals. It is expected to announce in the coming weeks than EUROCOURTAGE, one of the nuggets of the group. After years of rapid growth and acquisitions at high prices paid, Groupama will focus on its business heart.

LE FIGARO. – You have taken the lead on Groupama end of October. How do you assess the state of the group?

Thierry Martel. – The economic fundamentals are very solid group. We also present a very good operating results in 2011. However, it should be expected, due to the fall in equity markets in the second half of 2011 and our high exposure to the Greek crisis, to a net loss. But our level of liquidity has not suffered, it is even exceptionally high.

Can you detail these impairments?

The Greek crisis will have cost us just over 2 billion euros. Moreover, the fall in equity markets in the second half in 2011 has weighed up to 1.2 billion in securities and Societe Generale to the tune of 600 million euros for the stake in Veolia, which experienced a low in December 31, 2011 . That said, just since January 1, 2012, our securities portfolios have taken 2 billion euros.

You have announced your intention to sell EUROCOURTAGE and your UK business. Where are you?

Both operations are progressing smoothly. Several candidates have emerged and are currently in the data room. As expected, the name of the buyer EUROCOURTAGE be announced in March. The divestiture will occur then British.

Are you concerned that the action of the minority, who consider themselves injured by the transaction price, call into question the sale of Silic to the Deposit (CDC)?

No, I have every confidence in the success of this operation. The reconciliation between Icade and Silic is a great industrial success. The price at which we sold our interest is the market price, as demonstrated by studies experts.

Your accounts at the end of December would they have been approved by your supervisory authority without funding from the CDC?

Yes, our solvency at 31 December was above the legal limit without the operation of EUROCOURTAGE payday loan lenders. I heard of a "rescue" of Groupama: it makes no sense. The operations we have conducted with the CDC are primarily industrial operations that create value for both Groupama for the CDC.

To what extent do your customers have been affected by your financial difficulties?

Not only do our customers have remained loyal, but we increased our market share in our core businesses in 2011, thanks to excellent business results. Our 16 million members and customers have always been central to our priorities. Our financial losses they have not been passed: we will absorb them through our own funds.

How do you steer Groupama?

This crisis makes me put more than ever before in our mutual values: transparency vis-à-vis members and elected officials who represent them, sharing strategic decisions with regional banks, prudent risk management, commitment to dialogue Social. Confidence is the key to success is the reason why I will travel to many general meetings of regional banks to engage directly with members of the group's orientations.

And on a more operational?

I want to focus on Groupama markets where it has strong positions and the most profit potential. In France, we continue our strategy of global financial player in insurance and banking because we believe in the synergy of these commercial activities. In addition, we will complete in 2014 the convergence of all regional banks on the same information system, which will lower our costs. The Group has the widest range of offers, services and distribution channels. My ambition is to run at full capacity this great economic machine.

Precisely, do you have to tighten the savings plan announced in October?

We will refine and accelerate but overall we remain on the plan announced in the fall, that is to say 400 million euros in savings, by 2014. Meanwhile, we reinforce our policy of controlling technical risk is an essential factor in the outcome. Let's be clear: even at the height of the crisis last fall, employment has never been for us an adjustment variable.

Continue you always plan to become one of the top ten European insurers?

No, this is no longer a goal. Similarly, we decided to stop the proposed listing of the group. We are moving from a strategy of size to a performance strategy that will enable us to further strengthen our solvency.

The knives are drawn between Casino and Galeries Lafayette, Monoprix owners. Both shareholders are certainly agree on one point: the Galeries Lafayette want to sell 50% of Monoprix, as they have indicated on December 7 at Casino, and it wants to redeem him. It will even soon have a war chest of 800 to 900 million euros, after its partial withdrawal of its subsidiary Mercialys. But both groups, associated for 15 years, do not agree on the valuation of Monoprix.

Casino, advised by Rothschild bank is willing to pay 700 million euros for 50% of Monoprix. Galeries Lafayette, advised by Societe Generale, in initially wanted $ 1.95 billion. The variance explained by the high volatility of the valuations of distribution groups, is such that JP Morgan, called to break the tie, threw in the towel.

Casino feels "taken hostage"

The conflict took a turn legal last week, when Galeries Lafayette Casino assigned to the Commercial Court of Paris to make their own estimate no fax payday loans. Meanwhile, Galeries Lafayette has made a new offer at $ 1.35 billion, still too far from the estimate of Casino.

Wednesday, a board of Monoprix, which was to convey, as of March 31, President of Monoprix to Jean-Charles Naouri, CEO of Casino, voted to maintain this position Philippe Houze, CEO of Galeries Lafayette … time an agreement is reached on the valuation.

The board is composed of three members appointed by Casino and three others by the Galeries Lafayette, but the chairman has the casting vote. Casino, who feels "taken hostage" will "seize the competent courts to uphold its commitments by Galeries Lafayette".

After S & P, this could be the turn of Moody's rating of degrading of France. The rating agency had announced last month that it had extended its review of the stable outlook of the Hexagon last night finally decided to lower its outlook to negative while maintaining the Aaa rating, the highest possible. In other words, the U.S. opens the way for a possible deterioration of the country in the coming months. The French Minister of Economy Baroin said "take note" of the decision of the agency.

And France is not the only country: Great Britain and Austria have suffered the same fate. The British Finance Minister George Osborne said that "this is proof that in the present world situation, Britain can not help but care for his debt."

Note of Spain lowered by two notches

Moody's explains that "a number of particular pressures on credit balances exacerbate the sensitivity of these rulers." Moody's also said she hopes to "reflect the sensitivity (the countries concerned) to macroeconomic and financial risks from the growing crisis in the euro area."

Worse, the agency downgraded notes of Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta by one notch and two notches that of Spain payday loan. And perspectives of these six countries remain negative "given the continued uncertainty regarding the financing conditions in the next few quarters and its corresponding impact on the quality of the signature," said Moody's.

Six European countries are certain to keep their AAA

But she said that the magnitude of downgrades is limited because "the authorities' commitment to preserve the European monetary union and to implement all reforms necessary to restore market confidence."

It also confirmed the preliminary rating of AAA European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and AAA ratings assigned to Denmark, Germany, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Sweden. 

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This has now changed. In front of the Socialist parliamentary group, Greek Prime Minister did not mince his words: "The will of the Greek people appealing to us," said Papandreou. It will also seek a confidence vote in Parliament on the agreement on debt.