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lefigaro.fr / jdf.com: The beginning of 2010 seems to mark a resurgence of activity. Is it time to review mergers and acquisitions?

Herve Mangin: The market mergers and acquisitions work for periods of three to four years from 1997 to 2000, then 2003 to 2007. Since 2009, we are in the trough of the wave. Current levels are the lowest ever achieved for five years. Between 2007 and 2009, the number of deals announced declined by 53% and 32% between 2008 and 2009. The market mergers and acquisitions have obviously suffered from the economic crisis but also the draining of financial markets, preventing firms from refinancing.Since late last year, we see a resumption of operations, with an increase of nearly 50% in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

How can we explain this turnaround?

The economic visibility improves, credit conditions are more flexible, companies have taken preemptive measures to deal with the crisis and some have a large cash cushion. There are two ways to use this cash, either redistribute it to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases, or generate growth through investments or mergers and acquisitions. However, growth remains soft, the high level of taxes, consumer debt and high unemployment. It is better to buy existing capacity rather than creating new plants that use rates are poor.

The takeover of Cadbury by Kraft has yet taken place earlier this year.

The operation took place earlier this year because it was strategically very important for Kraft. This is also not expected to return to a debt level more comfortable to launch its offer. He attacked as soon as market conditions are loaned. Another symbolic aspect of this acquisition: it illustrates the need to increase the cash portion of the offering to complete the transaction. In other words, the larger the share in cash, the higher the transaction was likely to occur. Then again Kraft could do so only because the visibility has improved.

What is special about your fund Axa Opportunities?

The management of our fund is unusual to begin by targeting predators, their strategic and financial interest to generate external growth.Once we've found a predator, we want to know what would be the best "prey". And only from there, we are studying the viability of the project on a financial plan. So we try to place us before purchase. Operations in 2010 will be more strategic than financial. We focus on companies that have cash and are facing challenges in terms of growth, diversification, and whose price is underestimated. Our fund is invested in particular sectors of health, chemicals, oil and telecoms. According to a study co-published by Boston Consulting Group and UBS in January 2010, 20% of CEOs will make an acquisition of at least 500 million euros in turnover this year. Groups that have the greatest appetite are in insurance, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

The portfolio is invested two thirds in mergers and acquisitions and third in special situations (change of management, disposals important modifying the profile of a group …, Ed), while in 2009 the allocation was balanced. Our pocket liquidity is still below 10% and amounts to about 2% today. This pocket is more tactical than strategic: we do not intend to play on the cash to take advantage of market reversals. And especially since our fund is PEAable (the fund must invest at least 75% in European equities).

Do you ever happen to take positions outside Europe?

Absolutely. Having decided to adopt an approach focused on the predator to detect targets the most interesting, sometimes I take positions in securities outside Europe when the target detected there.But this represents no more than 8-10% of the portfolio. For example, I have a line on Mead Johnson, an American company specializing in the infant food because it is an attractive prey for Danone and Nestle, in particular because of its positions in emerging markets.

What are your beliefs about the four areas you are most invested (health, telecommunications, chemicals, petroleum)?

In telecoms we further expect further consolidation of domestic markets as large cross-border transactions. A reconciliation between Telenet and Mobistar France Telecom would thus solve the strategic problems of France Telecom in Belgium. Health, which is a major provider of mergers and acquisitions, should suffer the same fate as laboratories continue to suffer from the rise of generics.Sanofi, which has made more than 8 billion of acquisitions last year, would buy biotech and further diversification. For this, Stada, Shire or Stallergenes are good prey. As for the chemicals and oil, they should see competition from emerging countries, notably China and India grow. SWFs should also be present, but more on that equity takeovers.

What about bank stocks? The sector is expected to undergo further restructuring, and Societe Generale would be again at the heart of debates.

For bank stocks, is a question of timing. From 1997 to 2000, banks were in second position on the market for mergers and acquisitions behind telecoms. Similarly between 2003 and 2007 but this time behind the property.I do not see them go top of the list before 2011, because of uncertainty about Basel 3. They should instead carry out asset sales as a first step. Regarding Societe Generale, which could at some point the desire to attract a European rival. In this case, a French white knight would come to her rescue (including BNP Paribas).

Why do not you invested in the car?

I am not invested in this sector because the European players are more predators than prey. Peugeot and Volkswagen are currently taking stakes in Asia for example.And anyway, it is better to invest on groups whose fundamentals are attractive, which is often not the case of the automobile.

On what themes you bet?

The race to growth lies in emerging countries will also be one of the most important theme in 2010-2011. We see particular for Kraft, who has not bought Cadbury confectionery in the UK, but to gain strategic positions in emerging markets. Sanofi has just acquired a vaccine manufacturer in India, and continues to build in China by 2020 40.000 new hospitals should be built, and 90% of the population should receive special protection. Others include Vivendi, which acquired the Brazilian GVT or Heineken has acquired the activities of the Mexican brewer Femsa to 7.6 billion dollars.An offer of GDF International Power also has a sense of perspective in particular geographical synergy in the Middle East.

What are your plans for 2010?

Now that the means of external growth are met, the operations will be resumed. 2010 marks the return of mergers and acquisitions, ie the beginning of the wave. This does not mean that we will experience a bubble market and we'll find the record levels of 2007. But clearly there is potential to find a standardized level. We nevertheless believe that large transactions will only be until the second half of 2010.We should save up 15% to 20% in 2010, the market for mergers and acquisitions.

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A territorial policy of social housing, that is to say building in priority areas in deficit, such is the ambition on Wednesday by Secretary of State for Housing. Two days after the publication of an alarming report of the Fondation Abb? Pierre on poor housing, Benoist Appearing presented the draft state for 2010, namely to contribute up to 4.7 billion euros to finance 140,000 housing, half in Ile-de-France, Rh?ne-Alpes and Provence-Alpes-C?te d'Azur, the zones "tense". The program is ambitious, even by the balance of 2009 when 120,000 housing units were built "three times more than in 2000, the ministry said.

4 billion tax form

But if the Social Union for Housing which manages public housing can not approve a policy that it "calls for two years, is on the question of financing the rub.The state budget provides for the payment of 624 million euros to public housing agencies as aid to the stone. The rest of the state aid-more than 4 billion-will take the form of tax incentives (VAT, property tax, preferential interest rates). "The $ 624 million is less than 660 million euros achieved in 2009, and far from the 800 million budgeted in 2008," laments Pierre Quercy, general delegate of the Social Union for Housing which manages public housing best payday advance . "We're going to build a priority in areas of shortage, and therefore more expensive, but with less money," says the delegate general who believes a more realistic assessment of the number of homes built to last 100,000.

At the Department, any accusation of declining level of aid is denied."The effort of the State is not limited to 624 million euros of aid to the stone, take into account the full support of 4.7 billion euros, which will build 140,000 homes social, said the firm Benoist Appeared. Construction or purchase. As announced Tuesday the secretary of state, public housing agencies will be able to acquire any vacant units to turn them into housing. Another idea supported by the Social Union for Housing, but according to Pierre Quercy will face the same problems of funding. "We estimate that 350 million euros of state aid would be needed to buy 10,000 housing units in the tense areas," said the delegate general. What largely begin the budget.

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After three failed meetings, the representatives of EADS and the seven countries customers transport plane A400M military find themselves again next February 4th, in principle in Berlin.

They will try to find a compromise on sharing the additional costs – 5.2 billion – of the program whose final score jumped more than 50% to around 30 billion euros. EADS has rejected the proposal of the States to take over 2 billion instant payday loans .

This meeting will be held the same day as the Franco-German summit held in Paris. Optimists are betting on an agreement in principle to that Chancellor Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy announce all the rescue program.Otherwise, they should show their political support and call for a quick solution.

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The troubled conglomerate Dubai World announced on the night of Monday to Tuesday a forthcoming restructuring of some of his companies, including real estate giant Nakheel, which could include the sale of assets.

In his first statement since the crisis began Wednesday, Dubai World said that "the process of restructuring will involve World Nakheel and Limitless World" but not other group companies, including the giant Port DP World, "who are in financial stable.

The conglomerate said that "the restructuring process will include several phases which (…) evaluation of options, including asset sales.

He asked the bondholders to appoint Nakheel "an authorized representative with whom discussions can begin.

The Dubai authorities have announced November 25 their intention to request a six-month moratorium on the debt of Dubai World. The moratorium on the payment, provided December 14, 3.5 billion of Islamic bonds by Nakheel.

"Dubai can not stem the crisis

The shock wave propagated at the speed of lightning Thursday in the Gulf as the rest of the world. The near collapse of the emirate of Dubai, obliged to ask its creditors for a moratorium of six months for two of its major companies, Dubai World and Nakheel, unable to repay the 59 billion they have borrowed, shook all financial markets.

Asian stock markets continued their decline Friday. Tokyo has fallen by more than 3.0% in closing, while Hong Kong fell by 3.45% in mid-session. Shanghai posted a decline of 1.05% in mid-session. Seoul ended a slump of 4.69%."The last thing you would see is a domino effect, alarmed investment bank EFG-Hermes, which fears the deferred payment of debts of other firms, notably in emerging countries.

Not surprisingly, the rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's has downgraded six of the largest groups of Dubai, including DP World, a subsidiary of Dubai World, the company's water and electricity, and the giant of the Real Estate Emaar Properties. "Although Nakheel is not rated by Moody's, this is an important precedent for a leading company facing difficulties to pay its debts and relying on government for support, accuses the agency.

Snowball effect

The risk of a snowball effect is real.Dubai, which has more particularly on its neighbor Abu Dhabi to come to his aid, can undermine the confidence of investors in the Gulf. Investors including many Westerners are. Among the creditors of Dubai World, one finds the British banks Barclays, Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, but BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse. According to the latter, the exposure of European banks, however, does not exceed 13 billion euros.

In 2008, the emirate has attracted to itself for 21 billion dollars of foreign investment. Today, these investors may be concerned not only the financial health of Dubai, but also the countries of the Federation of UAE and the entire region.

For its part, Dubai, symbol of easy money, won, lack of oil, the real estate and finance, has a huge portfolio of foreign assets.It is the largest foreign investor in Tunisia and has launched many projects in the Maghreb, although some of them have been frozen because of the crisis.

He is a shareholder in several large companies in Asia, including Sony, the United States and Russia, where he acquired a leading electricians. It also has holdings in Europe, particularly in EADS. If decided, as feared, some investors to sell off its pay its debts, the consequences could be catastrophic for the financial market confidence. And they are equally if Abu Dhabi was to withdraw from Daimler, which owns 9% to help. Closed Thursday, Wall Street will give his ruling on Friday.

"The emirate of Dubai on the brink of bankruptcy