Countries of the euro, torn on the path of growth and the cost of austerity, are virtually unanimous on Greece. All institutions and capital combined, the pressure is on Athens and a government may be found, but already called upon to choose between honoring its commitments and the abandonment of the euro.
The hypothesis of a rupture between Greece and the common currency had found adherents in late summer 2011 at the height of the dealings between the former Papandreou government and its creditors. After two years of bailouts and broken promises, the scenario is no longer taboo. But never before EU officials had protested as loudly as the "Grexit," as they say in the markets, could be, after all, the least bad solution.
Usually consensus, the Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, opened fire ensuring that "better" than Greece leaves the club money if it does not follow the law. Olli Rehn, his right arm, drives the point home by explaining that the eurozone is now better positioned to absorb the impact. Clearly, Athens would have no means of blackmail with its creditors. For the euro area, the Commissioner insists, "there is no way" to ease the second recovery plan, agreed in March.
In terms of capital, the German Wolfgang Schaeuble wanted to give the "A". The euro area, he said, "can support an output of Greece." And the ECB, two governors abound. If Athens does not say, "there is more reason to support it financially," Jens Weidmann advance, also head of the Bundesbank. From Ireland, a country itself on life support, his colleague Patrick Honohan said that Greece "is ipso facto recover money from the block" if it renounced the word. A set of targeted preceding the appointment of the Eurogroup, on Monday evening in Brussels.
Facade of unity
The message is more political than financial: it is to bring the Greeks – mostly attached to the single currency, according to polls – to withhold their support for extremists and to open their eyes to the illusions that make the soft budget compatible with the euro. Nothing says that this move will lead to the desired result. There is no guarantee that an outflow of Greece would benefit its partners, beyond the political failure it would spend for the common currency and the EU as a whole. Council President Van Rompuy, more nuanced, notes that "the solution to the crisis is growing in Europe."
The puzzle Greek allows at least a facade of unity with leaders of the common currency. At the Eurogroup, two other cases may show otherwise divided, at least undecided: first, how to behave with respect to Spain, apparently unable to meet the target of a budget deficit reduced 3% in 2013, then a game of musical chairs constantly postponed at the head of financial institutions of the EU. Are concerned at least four sensitive positions: President of the Eurogroup (for which the German Wolfgang Schäuble is a candidate), the general direction of the new permanent emergency fund SS, a position at the ECB Executive Board and, finally, the Presidency of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). On this seat, Paris and Berlin diverge, to the despair of many Europeans. French side, the absence this Monday night at the Eurogroup of finance minister – Baroin, outgoing holder of the portfolio, did not go to it – will add to the inertia.
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