Sundial of world news

The decision was surprised by its form. Under pressure from his people and political parties, George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, announced Monday night to organize a national referendum. Formally, it is to approve the agreement reached last week by the Europeans to clear part of the country's public debt. But in fact, the flexibility of George Papandreou was too small for the government to continue implementing the reforms. "The country is paralyzed for over a month. On the one hand all of the political demand for elections, on the other there is the street. Between working to rule and those that slow the activity, no one works, "said Giorgos Delastik, a political analyst. "It must be added those who can not afford to pay their bills, and violence in the behavior of people who have nothing to lose us fast cash."Indeed, for the first time since the return of democracy in Greece in 1974, the National Day parade was canceled in fifteen cities. In Thessaloniki, in northern countries, tens of Greeks threw eggs and projectiles on official incentives Karolos Papoulias, President of the Republic to leave. In a letter to Prime Minister, Mikis Theodorakis, symbol of resistance to the junta of colonels also called George Papandreou to take responsibility.

This has now changed. In front of the Socialist parliamentary group, Greek Prime Minister did not mince his words: "The will of the Greek people appealing to us," said Papandreou. It will also seek a confidence vote in Parliament on the agreement on debt.

While central bankers of the euro zone must meet this weekend to try to establish the foundation that will emerge from the crisis, Standard & Poor's already considering the worst. The rating agency has in fact simulated for several European countries, a "worst case scenario" based on a relapse into recession. If such an economic downturn were to occur, what the IMF is already considering, then the rating agency's estimation, several notes of sovereign debt could then be degraded, including that of France. She stresses, however, that "no degradation or put under surveillance of AAA French is considered for the moment."

Accuracy that allows Standard & Poor's to stand out from its counterpart Moody's, which launched a few days ago warning of a possible future revision of his opinion of the French debt.Fitch has also distanced itself from Moody's, ensuring that it does not intend to degrade the rating of France.

Without growth, no AAA rating for France

S & P has built these "stress tests" on sovereign debt from two batteries of different assumptions. In the first scenario, it assessed the impact of a relapse into recession. In this case, France could see its rating downgraded from AAA to AA +, because of lower tax revenues.

In the second scenario, which provides a relapse into recession coupled with a shock on interest rates, then the note of the French sovereign debt could be lowered by two notches.The notes of banking groups could also be revised.

"The soaring deficits and the recapitalization of banks will weigh heavily on the indebtedness of countries in the euro area," said the head of credit analysis in Paris, adding that "the credit quality of the countries in the euro area will thus be deeply damaged. " The rating agency also said it will adjust its ratings depending on the extent of the downturn on the Old Continent.

For now, the assumption of a recession in the countries of the euro area is not the scenario preferred by S & P, which focuses on growth of between 1% and 1.5% on average for 2012. This is not the case of Fitch."The intensification of the crisis in Italy, Spain and other countries in the euro area under pressure, is expected to generate a recession," says David Riley, head of credit ratings of sovereign debt at Fitch.

ALSO READ:

"The rating agencies accused of aggravating the crisis

"Moody's casts a shadow on the AAA rating of France

• Incidents in Rome

Tens of thousands of demonstrators, inspired by the "outrage" of Wall Street and Spain, marched on Saturday in Rome, the city had been cordoned off by police. "One solution, the Revolution!", "We are not property in the hands of bankers," could be read on the signs of the protesters payday loans for bad credit.

In Rome, several cars were torched. Photo credits: ALBERTO PIZZOLI / AFP

Having long raged about the punctures of the State Budget, Action Housing, the former 1% housing, just go on the offensive. Reportedly, the joint body attacked last Friday before the Paris Administrative Court of the State's decision to withdraw 3.7 billion euros between 2009 and 2011. These funds are used to finance the Anah (National Housing) and ANRU (National Renewal). "We made an informal appeal with the government against the decree fixing the puncture but we never received a reply, said Jean-Pierre Guillon, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Action Housing. We decided to attack the government for abuse of power. "

If Action Housing is the case in court today is with an idea behind the head.Last July, the government has said that he would collect 3.25 billion euros over the period 2012-2014 no fax payday advances. To sweeten the pill, the Secretary of State for Housing, Benoist Appeared, has committed to implement clever financial engineering to boost the cash flow of Action Housing. "But we have no documents indicating that commitment forward Jean-Pierre Guillon. If the minister changed, the following may not feel bound by that promise. "More generally, Action Housing, which collects 0.45% of payroll companies, believes that this aspiration will prevent it from fulfilling its mission . For example, he does not see how it could fund 45,000 homes for young people as he had promised a few months ago.

With this lawsuit, it seeks to pressure the state to be released in the coming weeks the decree laying down the drain of 3.25 billion between 2012 and 2014.

The reform of the public can also make people happy. Steria has indeed been selected by the government to ensure the realization of information system (HRIS) in several ministries. Eventually, the system developed by IT services will allow the operator National Payroll (ONP) to ensure the payment of more than 3 million of state agents.

The contract for a period of four years, approximately $ 9 million, is part of the modernization program of the French state.The aim is thus to make available to all client departments "a single computer system and meet the shared challenges of transforming the State civil service," said Steria.

Olivier Vallet, CEO of Steria, said that this contract is "in line with the recent gain of the TMA Chorus for the modernization of budgetary aspects of the state."

The public outsource more and more private

More generally, as part of the reform of the public, the state increases the outsourcing to private faxless cash advance. Several departments regularly use the public-private partnership, recently this method of financing involving the State and communities to a private group concerned the areas of economy, technology, defense, education or further transport.

In particular, the management of part of the tracks is transferred to the private sector.In addition, the police will not be responsible to accompany the convoys exceptional. The state decided to entrust to private companies the management of transportation of wind turbines, ships and other bulky goods. The opening to competition of regional express trains could well tip the railway in the private sector. Public-private partnerships have also been established in the field of defense. The company has particular DCI took over the management of flight hours and the helicopter fleet of the School of Dax.

LIREAUSSI:

"The state accelerates the outsourcing to private

The numbers are chilling. Since the crisis began in 2009, the number of people who have committed suicide has doubled in Greece, according to figures from the Ministry of Health echoed by the Wall Street Journal. The first five months of the year, there were even 40% of suicides and more over the same period last year. These figures are especially impressive that according to the Greek statistical authorities, the suicide rate in Greece was among the lowest in the EU between 1990 and 2009.

Unemployment, inability to repay its debts are as many explanations for these gestures of despair paydayloans. According to figures from National Bank of Greece, the unemployment rate has doubled over two years, more than 16%. "This is the illustration that rigor is not the solution to revive Greece, says Céline Antonin, an economist at the French Office of Economic Conditions.Rigor leads to recession and the social crisis. Asphyxiant in households (higher taxes, lower wages …), the country will lose an engine to boost growth. "
A general transport strike was called on Thursday in Athens. "The Greek airport is not for sale" it said.

The subject is no longer taboo. According to information of the German weekly Der Spiegel revealed this Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble would seriously consider bankruptcy of Athens, which could result in a departure from the country of the euro. While this information was then "denied by Germany," according to the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, it comes as markets are increasingly skeptical about a rescue of Greece, whose economy continues to worse. To this must be added the recent publications of economists, who now publish the "fictions" about the abandonment of the euro in Athens.

Natixis economist Patrick Artus has decrypted this scenario in an analysis published Monday.Taking into account the levels of debt, public deficits and outside Greece, he felt that Athens should depreciate its currency by 55% to balance its accounts. For now, the country will wipe a deep recession "for the next 18 months." It is characterized by a drop in growth and "a sharp decline in purchasing power" due to inflation, a consequence of the devaluation ("with a surge in import prices by about 30%" ) and monetization of public debt as the deficit persists. Similarly, the bank UBS in a note published evoked early September at a cost of 9,500 to 11,500 euros per person the first year of a release of the European currency.

A scenario "imaginable" and "sustainable"

According to Patrick Artus, this bad patch should then be completed at the end of "two or three years," with a resumption of growth.But for Europe, the bill would be salty, since leaving the euro, Greece should convert its debt in its new currency. Which would cost banks and institutional investors in the euro area some 166 billion euros, according to the devaluation held by Natixis.

An output of the euro remains of Athens "imaginable" and "sustainable", argues Patrick Artus. However, "[he] would not attempt the coup," he insists, for fear that the markets get the idea that other countries in difficulty, in turn, leave the single currency. With online focus, Italy and Spain (under perfusion of the ECB through a program to purchase obligation), the output of the euro is, this time, "not at all imaginable, "given the size of their economies.

Public expenditure or fiscal austerity?

For the economist, only a policy of renewed growth in Greece would head out of the water."We must stop this hard to Athens on the reduction of the deficit, he loses his temper. We are killing the country. Instead of giving him three years to reduce its deficit, which gives him six, and that helps companies to find the path of growth and competitiveness. "

A view shared by economist Nouriel Roubini, calling to reactivate the lever of public spending on pain of falling into a "Great Depression". Tance but Jürgen Stark, the former chief economist of the ECB, for whom "a fiscal stimulus would only increase the level of debt and would therefore only increase those risks further." Whatever decision the euro area, it will in all cases act quickly to prevent the "taboo" from turning into disasters scenarios.

After two sessions of gains, the Paris Bourse off again into negative territory on Friday and leaves 0.6% to 3068.79 points in early trade. Yesterday, the CAC 40 was able to stay the course despite the announcement of a downward revision of growth expectations in the euro area by the Fed chairman, Jean-Claude Trichet. Investors heartedly welcome the details of the employment plan unveiled by U.S. President Barack Obama in the night. He introduced a bill on the release of 447 billion dollars for the Americans out of unemployment."This plan will give an electric shock to an economy that has stalled, will give confidence to businesses on the fact that if they invest and hire, there will be customers for their products and services," assured the U.S. president to members of Congress .

As in Asia this morning, traders seem to doubt the implementation of this plan. Its funding is already generating questions from Republican opponents could block a vote. Barack Obama urged them to adopt "immediately". The U.S. president also announced that it will issue on September 19 "a deficit reduction plan more ambitious."

The health of America's economy is strong markets. Any further announcement is expected with great excitement. Yesterday Wall Street has finished in the red after being disappointed by the vague speeches of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.The latter did not give details on the measures it would implement to support growth, as they waited.

Inflation slows in China

Still on macroeconomic, Japan has this morning reported a decline of 2.1% of GDP in the second quarter 2011 annualized. This is more than the 1.3% decline initially estimated. The main factor weighing on GDP has been the decline in exports (-4.9% from January to March).

In China, rising consumer prices, the main barometer of inflation, which had accelerated in recent months, slowed slightly to 6.2% in August. Industrial production is she up 13.5% in August.

On the agenda are Friday's industrial production in France in July and inventories of wholesalers in the United States.

As for currencies, the euro has stabilized under $ 1.40, to 1.3896 dollar.Oil rises on the other hand, supported by a surprise drop in U.S. inventories. In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 23 cents to 89.28 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 21 cents to 114.76 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• TF1 (-4.3%), M6 (-2.25%) Bolloré (0.8%), Vivendi (-1.1%); NextRadioTV (-1.4%)

Chains react in a disorganized to take control of Direct 8 Direct and Star, two DTT channels free of the Bolloré Group, Canal +. The subsidiary of Vivendi will have three DTT frequencies. Be as much as TF1 and M6 more than the group which, in addition to the namesake chain, has only W9. For this operation, fully financed by shares, a stake Bolloré group Vivendi.

• Total (0.9%) signed the largest increase

The Anglo-Dutch oil group Shell said Friday that oil was discovered off the coast of French Guiana, during exploratory drilling at about 150 km off the coast.

• Sopra (1.81%)

The group announced the takeover of Delta, specialized in banking software. The transaction is expected to close in early October 2011, will be financed from existing credit lines of business consulting, IT services and software.

• Pierre & Vacances (-0.33%)

The group, which operates much of the accommodation ski resorts, opened 369 new tourist residences furnished this winter.

• ArcelorMittal (-1.7%)

The group will close as of October 3 for an indefinite period and the second blast furnace at its site in Florange (Moselle), according to a union source quoted by AFP.

• EADS (+0.8%) on the second step of the podium

The group said on Thursday not want to use all of its $ 16 billion (11.45 billion euros) in cash for acquisitions.

Dressed all in black, on Wednesday before members of the Bundestag, the Chancellor was in mourning for his father, who died Saturday. But visibly relieved after the decision of the judges of the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, the German chancellor had a big smile and great days of fighting to defend the euro. Reinforcing the federal government, the wise rejected on Thursday a complaint filed by German economists and a Conservative MP. This confirms the principle of aid promised by Berlin to combat the crisis in the euro area. But in exchange the Court ordered the government to involve Parliament more.

After wearing his cap red and getting up to announce a decision solemnly waited feverishly throughout Europe, the President of the Court Vosskuhle Andreas has removed one by one the arguments of the plaintiffs Eurosceptics.Or using in Athens in spring 2010 or the creation of the European emergency EFSF "do not violate Article 38 (of the German Constitution) the right to vote", and "neither sovereignty nor the fiscal room for maneuver future parliaments "have been compromised, he said. Known for their warmth towards Europe, the sages have therefore lifted the sword of Damocles hanging over the center-right government of Angela Merkel.

Advocacy for the euro and Europe

However, the game is not yet won for the Chancellor, who must bring together parliamentarians from the majority behind the new rescue plans for the euro area. Monday night, during a test vote, twenty-five members of the ruling coalition in Germany refused to support his bill to expand the powers of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) which Germany has pledged more 200 billion euros.The rebel MPs are also opposed to new aid to Greece, they will also be asked to vote. Thanks to opposition voices, it was adopted by the Bundestag on September 29 is almost assured. But if his majority is lacking, the blow could be fatal to the coalition, Merkel could then be forced to call early parliamentary elections.

Thursday, Chancellor has therefore engaged in advocacy for the euro and Europe before the German MPs. "The Constitutional Court has absolutely confirmed" the path followed by Germany, it was welcomed. "We can not and will not let the failure of the euro," Merkel argued, reiterating that the future of Europe is at stake"If we are to avoid a major crisis in the western world (…), we need to fundamentally rethink everything," she said, adding that the accumulation of excessive debt for decades was the cause of the crisis. Marking the importance of the issue, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble had gone in person in early July in Karlsruhe on behalf of the government argue the legality of the aid granted. The judges' decision "does not change the fact that decisions are difficult," he acknowledged Thursday, "but the debate on their compliance with the Constitution is over."

The Constitutional Court has in fact pointed out the powers of the Bundestag, which will give the green light "case by case for any aid of great importance." The Court held that the government has "the obligation to obtain clearance prior" to the budget committee of the Bundestag before making any commitment.No way also for Berlin to ratify agreements on a "community debt especially if it is linked to consequences difficult to predict," warned the judges. The idea of ​​creating common European obligations or "Eurobond" seems to finally buried the Rhine.

ALSO READ:

"The Assembly valid aid to Greece

»Greece: France" generous "and Germany" selfish "

Shortly before opening, the U.S. stock markets were slightly higher initial approached on Monday. The index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced in effect 0.79% respectively at 1132.40 points from 0.98% to 2061 points, while the Dow Jones was also expected to rise by 0.6 % to 10,885 points.

The slight rebound, which may occur after a further sharp fall on Wall Street last Friday and in the wake of European markets focused more on Monday morning, should not be thwarted, at least in the short term, by some macroeconomic indicators whatsoever. In fact, no statistics major is expected on Monday to the United States. Only the index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago Fed is on the menu, at 14:30.

It will take until Tuesday to learn about sales figures for new homes, from 16 hours.Wednesday, the agenda will grow a bit, with durable goods orders for July and the weekly inventory of crude oil to the United States. Thursday, things become more serious with the weekly jobless claims, always eagerly awaited by investors on the lookout for any sign of weakness, or, conversely, improvement in U.S. growth.

Threats to U.S. growth

But the appointment will most certainly expected the intervention, Friday, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), some investors are hoping a third easing able to restart the engine stopped the world's largest economy.This day will be both detailed, the second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter, and the index of consumer confidence for August.

Markets, even if they are experiencing very high volatility, and may still show, at the same time, some caution, pending the decision of the Fed on Friday. Especially as the threats to the outlook for U.S. growth accumulates. After Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase lowered its estimates, in turn, growth in the U.S. economy. The Bank of New York discusses risk "clearly raised" a recession, while growth prospects for the third quarter were for their slightly smaller than before.The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth calendar quarter is now expected at a rate of 1% against +2.5% previously.

Vice President Joe Biden, on an official visit to China, but probably a little appeased the spirits, reaffirming this weekend at the first creditors of the country they could rely on the strength of the U.S. Treasury.

Values ​​to follow

The uncertainty is compounded room at the international level, by the events in Libya. The fall of Colonel Qaddafi, found, became clearer Monday morning, prompting oil companies to return to the values ​​of the colors. However, perhaps more in Europe than the United States. Neither Chevron (%), or ExxonMobil (+%) are actually active in the extraction of oil in Libya. These values ​​could still respond to changes in oil prices.Oil prices retreated on Monday morning.

On the corporate side, the internet telephony group Skype also announced Sunday an agreement to acquire Me Group, a provider of mobile messaging services to targeted groups. Registered in Luxembourg, the company Skype was founded in 2003 and became the world leader in Internet telephony. She is currently being acquired by Microsoft U.S. computer group (-2.51% Friday closing).