106 billion euros. This figure results from the examination of bank balance sheets after taking into account the loss of value to the end of September of sovereign debt Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or Italian, but also gains recorded on their German or British counterparts. On this basis, regulators assessed for each bank the way to go to 9% of regulatory capital ratio ("core tier 1" prudential banking jargon). This objective will be achieved on June 30 at the latest.And the addition is particularly heavy for Greek banks, of course (30 billion euros), but also in Spain (26 billion) and Italy (14.8 billion). In France, the bill is estimated at 8.8 billion, Germany at 5.1 billion.

A new showdown promises

This total was largely anticipated by the market and the banks themselves. However, a new showdown between the industry and promises to the authorities. "We ask banks to recapitalize. Not to cut their balance sheets, "argued a senior Wednesday ahead of the summit. Number of facilities provided to achieve because much of the effort flopped the sails, that is to say, by limiting their activities consume the most capital. But Europe is concerned about the impact of these strategies on the distribution of credit, especially in the east where the industry is largely owned by groups of Western Europe.The Council of the Union has insisted on its vigilance on this point. And regulators have developed their doctrine accordingly. End of June 2012, they calculate the ratio of each bank according to its balance sheet at September 30, 2011 …. It is therefore too late to play on the variable of total assets. Only an increase in capital will reach the famous 9%.

Putting aside the benefits

To avoid making capital increases in market conditions given the state of detestable share price values ​​the industry or, worse, to use the state to bail out the banks who can n ' have only one option: to put their profits in reserve, probably in much higher proportions for use. This means that the shareholders of the banks concerned will receive little or no dividend next year.Politicians hide it just, that sacrifice is almost as an objective.

All has not been lost to the banks. The Council of the EU, the European Banking Authority, promised to lay the foundation for coordinated action to help them take on the market. The sovereign debt crisis cut investors' appetite for foreign bank debts. However, they will raise more than € 600 billion next year. The European Central Bank has opened the floodgates of funding up to a year. But it can do much more as the industry needs stable funding, so many years. Government guarantees could be implemented.

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However, Louis Giscard d'Estaing is convinced that there is still food for thought in the financing of 35 hours. He will file an amendment in the bill funding the Social Security (PLFSS) for further reduce the limit on exemptions from employer contributions on wages at 1.5 times the minimum wage (currently against 1.6). Which would represent just over one billion euros in savings, if the measure comes into force on 1 January. He even suggested to lower the ceiling to 1.4 times the minimum wage in July 2012 to "give companies time to adjust."The UMP also suggests to "a general movement of the plane of the allocations to the operators of the state" by reducing them to 3% in 2012 No teletrak payday loan.

"Do not replace two staff on three"

In this area, Hervé Mariton (UMP, Drôme) also proposes to "ease the regulations that impact cost." Other proposals of the Liberal "not to replace two of three officials" and "examining investments less profitable," particularly in the area of ​​infrastructure. "Do not panic about short-term savings. We will be judged on the strength and seriousness of a savings plan in the long term, "said Mariton. Special Rapporteur of the mission work jobs, Chantal Brunel (UMP, Seine-et-Marne) will propose to leave the tax deduction on home jobs "all leisure activities and relaxation."Isabelle Vasseur (UMP, Aisne), Rapporteur of the Finance Committee on Social Security Financing Bill, will propose this afternoon the establishment of "prevention, source of major savings in health" she assures.

The former chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Jean Arthuis think we need to "reduce the amount of grants to local authorities" and "to lower executive compensation operators of the state." Former budget minister, Dominique Bussereau is more cautious: "We are still on the bone. The revision of public policies (RGPP) was very effective, so that the state is under-Box at the local level, "says he.

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If the prospect should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely lower the rating over the medium term, most often at a maturity of three to twelve months.And France would become the new big country, after the United States to lose its prestigious rating that allows it to borrow on the current market conditions very favorable.

A budget supervision

In reaching its decision, Moody's analyze the ability of the French government to meet its budget commitments. She stressed that the financial strength of the French government "has weakened since the economic and financial crisis worldwide has led to a deterioration in its debt ratios, which are now among the lowest in AAA." In addition, "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months, such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase significant commitments that must support the country's budget. "The remark came just after the adoption by the members of the guarantees provided by the French in the process of dismantling the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia payday loans for bad credit.

But Moody's does not forget to mention the strengths of the country where the government should build, "the large scale of its economy, high productivity, wide diversification, experience, innovation and a savings companies with high a moderate increase in financial liabilities of households and businesses. "These elements provide" a great capacity for shock absorption by France, as demonstrated by the strength of the demand during the global crisis, "reminds the statement.

France "will do everything possible" to keep the AAA

The rating agency said that the review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet a decision on the rating of the country.

But after this warning, the marathon budget to the Assembly for consideration of the budget 2012, which begins on Tuesday, should be closely watched.On France 2 last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon warned it would take "new measures" austerity if France did not record a "minimal growth of 1.5%" in 2012, as the draft budget is "built on a projected 1.75% growth, but it works with a minimal growth of 1.5%."

Already, Tuesday morning, the Minister of Economy, Baroin, indicates that the growth forecast for 2012 is adopted "probably too high." He promised that France "will do everything possible" to maintain its excellent rating.

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Following the same curve as the price index, the benchmark rents had fallen sharply during the crisis, before recovering from the first quarter of 2010. However, according to figures released Wednesday by INSEE, inflation emerged up 2.2% year on year in September, despite a slowdown during the past month.

Consequence of this increase in the IRL, the owners can raise rents to their tenants under lease, 1.90% maximum per year. This ceiling is not to be confused with the increase that may require the owner at the end of the lease, and which itself is not subject to this limit.

Rising rents slows

They are also in the process of marking time, like the sale price. The latest observation Clamor, the rents charged to new tenants were up 0.9% over the first eight months of the year, against 1.4% a year earlier. In 34% of cities in France, this trend is even negative. This is for example the case in Paris (-0.1%), Bordeaux (-0.9%) or Toulouse (-0.4%).

In other cities of the Hexagon, however, rents remain strong on the upside. This is the case in Lyon (+1.2%), Nantes (+1.7%), Lille (1.9%) or Le Havre (+2%). For the full year, Clamor expects an average increase of 1.5% to 1.8% against 2.5% in 2010.

The Observatory notes wide disparities between the cities but also between the quality of rented accommodation.Owners who make improvements before entering into a new lease rent on average well 9.3% more than the previous occupant. However, when the property is rented without work, its rental value decreases by an average of 5.4%.

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After heavy losses last week, investors marked a pause in fact, driven by renewed optimism about the debt crisis in the eurozone. Europe, for the voice of the spokesman for the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn, in fact, shows its commitment to strengthen the capacity of the relief funds in the euro area (EFSF).

Tokyo ready to buy bonds EFSF

The Japanese government has also indicated a willingness to buy more bonds relief fund if the European authorities in the euro area establish a mechanism to calm markets. "If a plan is launched to ease tensions in financial markets by helping Greece, I do not exclude that Japan is participating," said Tuesday the Japanese Minister of Finance, Jun Azumi. Japan already suffers from the crisis in Europe: the yen peaked against the euro, hurting Japanese exporters values. Monday, the European currency reached its lowest level since June 2001, at 102.18 yen. It is worth 103.28 yen Tuesday morning.

In terms of raw materials, oil falls sharply higher after having dropped more than eight dollars last week.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November gained 1.15 dollars to 81.39 dollars in early electronic trading, having closed up 39 cents Monday. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery, which ended virtually unchanged Monday (-3 cents), advances, meanwhile, 95 cents to 104.89 dollars.

Last response date, two UMP announced Friday their intention to table an amendment to Bill Financing Social Security (PLFSS) reserves to tax "excessive" for certain health insurance schemes. Their goal: to prevent a sharp rise in contract prices by encouraging individuals to use their mutual financial reserves rather than pass on the increase in the tax on membership fees.

Sébastien Huyghe, MP North, and Valérie Rosso-Debord, Meurthe-et-Moselle, advocated to establish "what could amount to a wealth tax" on the margins of solvency of each other located far beyond the legal limit. "The law requires unions to hold minimum reserves called legal reserves or solvency margins, which now account for 17% of the amount of annual dues. When this level is set aside, it is said that the solvency of the mutual is 100%, "they recall. In their amendments, MEPs are the players that has a line "located beyond 300%", a rate considered sufficient to ensure their development or deal with contingencies.

According Valérie Rosso-Debord, the reserves of each other is "five to six times beyond the level required."These organizations "a way of managing heritage, which is not in the interest of their contributors," lamented the member quoted by Reuters. For his part, Labour Minister, Xavier Bertrand, argued that no insurance company or mutual was in financial difficulties and were "not required to fully pass this increase" on their customers .

"No secret reserves"

These arguments will probably jump Caniard Etienne, the president of the National Federation of French Mutual, which represents 600 health insurance schemes instant credit reports. He said the tax increases will be reflected automatically on membership fees, mutuals have already seen their margins decline in recent years. In this context, it amounts to 3.5% increase "mechanical" contribution for 2012. "It is no secret reserves" into the coffers of these organizations, he assures.A view shared by Gerard Andreck, Chairman of mutual insurance companies (Gema), a trade association. "Maybe there are a number of which are in mutual capacity to absorb this increase, but not the general market," he said after the vote by the parliament of the text .

Yet, according to Le Parisien, the market would not be so tense. Based on the balance sheets and income sector, the paper shows that mutual health organizations are seated on a "gold mine hidden" gigantic. MGEN (Mutual of Education) would be the best endowed. In 2009, its reserves "excessive" reached 1 billion euros, representing a solvency margin of 667%, well above the standards. With reserves of 262 million euros, Malakoff Médéric benefit from a solvency margin of 779%.These financial reserves "would easily (these mutual, Ed) to support the additional tax under the government without making their customers suffer," the paper concludes.

According to a study released Wednesday by UFC-Que Choisir, the French spent 25.4 billion euros in additional contributions to health in 2010, an increase of 16.6% in five years, two times higher than the increase income. And raising taxes will bring to the state 100 million euros in 2011 and $ 1.1 billion in 2012, according to government calculations.

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Failing agreement, Universal Music France has turned to justice. For the subsidiary of Vivendi, Deezer is guilty of infringement. On Monday, the judge of the Tribunal de Grande Instance of Paris has decided otherwise and dismissed Universal.For justice, Deezer has "sufficiently established in the interim stage the possibility that the company Universal Music France has committed an abuse of dominant position which has the effect of depriving the bans based on the copyright it claims ". Thus, the court allows Deezer, which Orange is a shareholder at 11%, to continue to operate free catalog of Staff … "In conditions that were not accepted by Universal," Vivendi's subsidiary storm, with Deezer attack now on the bottom.

Find a deal

"This decision clearly express the idea that we have several models on the French market for it to grow, said Axel Dauchez his part, Director General of Deezer. Furthermore, it can not be any different solutions for each producer. "Satisfied with the decision of the court, he readily admits that the Universal catalog is "essential to the existence of Deezer" and he'll have to reach an agreement. A fortiori Deezer while preparing its international expansion. In 2012, France could be less than half the income of the start-up. It opened an office in England and is expected to announce the launch of its service in the coming days. The French experience is not foreign. In addition to tickets sold in packages Orange (1.1 million), claiming in effect Deezer 100,000 subscriptions sold directly from that listening is limited to 5 hours per month. "With success, it is logical that we seek to replicate it abroad," said Axel Dauchez.

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The slight rebound, which may occur after a further sharp fall on Wall Street last Friday and in the wake of European markets focused more on Monday morning, should not be thwarted, at least in the short term, by some macroeconomic indicators whatsoever. In fact, no statistics major is expected on Monday to the United States. Only the index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago Fed is on the menu, at 14:30.

It will take until Tuesday to learn about sales figures for new homes, from 16 hours.Wednesday, the agenda will grow a bit, with durable goods orders for July and the weekly inventory of crude oil to the United States. Thursday, things become more serious with the weekly jobless claims, always eagerly awaited by investors on the lookout for any sign of weakness, or, conversely, improvement in U.S. growth.

Threats to U.S. growth

But the appointment will most certainly expected the intervention, Friday, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), some investors are hoping a third easing able to restart the engine stopped the world's largest economy.This day will be both detailed, the second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter, and the index of consumer confidence for August.

Markets, even if they are experiencing very high volatility, and may still show, at the same time, some caution, pending the decision of the Fed on Friday. Especially as the threats to the outlook for U.S. growth accumulates. After Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase lowered its estimates, in turn, growth in the U.S. economy. The Bank of New York discusses risk "clearly raised" a recession, while growth prospects for the third quarter were for their slightly smaller than before.The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth calendar quarter is now expected at a rate of 1% against +2.5% previously.

Vice President Joe Biden, on an official visit to China, but probably a little appeased the spirits, reaffirming this weekend at the first creditors of the country they could rely on the strength of the U.S. Treasury.

Values ​​to follow

The uncertainty is compounded room at the international level, by the events in Libya. The fall of Colonel Qaddafi, found, became clearer Monday morning, prompting oil companies to return to the values ​​of the colors. However, perhaps more in Europe than the United States. Neither Chevron (%), or ExxonMobil (+%) are actually active in the extraction of oil in Libya. These values ​​could still respond to changes in oil prices.Oil prices retreated on Monday morning.

On the corporate side, the internet telephony group Skype also announced Sunday an agreement to acquire Me Group, a provider of mobile messaging services to targeted groups. Registered in Luxembourg, the company Skype was founded in 2003 and became the world leader in Internet telephony. She is currently being acquired by Microsoft U.S. computer group (-2.51% Friday closing).

Since March, distributors impact gradually increases on their labels. That month, prices in stores were up 0.67% over February, according to the institute Symphony IRI Group. Since then, a month to month, prices increase in radius each time by 0.50%."The return of inflation is beginning to be felt on the behavior of buyers in supermarkets," says Jacques Dupré, Director of Insight Symphony IRI Group, which analyzes the monthly receipts of all the major surfaces of the Hexagon .

The break in the trend is clear. Of the four months preceding the return of inflation on the shelves between November 2010 and February 2011, sales of food increased by 1.3%. And the next three months, between March and May, the increase slowed to only 0.4%.

Promotional pressure

In April, the phenomenal sales of water, beverages, beer and ice cream, boosted by high temperatures, have allowed supermarkets to record an exceptional increase their volumes, which jumped this month to 4 3% compared to April 2010. But since May, purchases in supermarkets are falling over one year.Month after month, the trend continues. "In July, the decline could even exceed 1%, says Jacques Dupré. Inflation continues to gain momentum. "

The drop in purchases is certainly less intense than in 2008. At the time, soaring raw materials led to an increase of 4.5% of the labels in three months, which had resulted in a decline in overall consumption of around 2% throughout the year, twice as large as that observed in the last three months.

"So far, arbitration is more about quantity than quality, said Jacques Dupré. Rather than falling in line, they buy a little less product. "As in 2008, consumers are tightening their belts.But they give up to afford one or two products "frivolous" (see box) rather than turn to the variety of entry-level or private labels (PLs) for items they value.

Despite the general rise in prices, domestic brands continued to be more resilient than labels distributor, yet less expensive. Until May, growth was consistently higher, thanks to promotions, which have proliferated in the first half.

Promotional pressure from national brands was released in June … and then returned to the private label market share for the first time in eighteen months. The situation remains tense rays than ever, and inflation could thus give a boost to brands.Contrary to what happened three years ago, the hard discount does not benefit from inflation and continues to lose market share.

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