The decision of the Central Bank of China down 0.12% Monday from the central rate of its currency, to bring it back to 6.78 yuan per dollar, is not trivial. It confirms that China believes that the resumption of the global economy is "very slow" in the words of his prime minister, Wen Jiabao.
Since June 19 last, the central rate of RMB, yuan's other name, is fixed daily by the bank that leaves fluctuate within a margin of plus or minus 0.5% vis-à-vis the greenback. Then she had gained 0.8% since that date, the Chinese currency fell Monday to its lowest level in two weeks, to 6.78 yuan per dollar.
The government fully controls the growth of his country. The measures taken to avoid overheating, especially in real estate, have borne fruit. The GDP (gross domestic product) grew by only Chinese 10.3% in the second quarter, against 11.9% in the first.
Wen Jiabao welcomes it, but he believes that his country because of "uncertainties" facing the world must "increase domestic demand, while stabilizing the foreign demand." But Monday, the State Information Center, an organization that depends on the Reform Commission and National Development, released a report which estimates that the growth of Chinese exports in the second half of this year will not exceed 16 3% by volume, against a leap of 35% for the first six months of the year. It does not explain its calculation, but it is clear that it expects a slowdown in trade flows in the world.It probably also fear the consequences of wage increases in Chinese enterprises on the competitiveness of the country pay day advance.
"We will pursue a fiscal policy that anticipates events and a lax monetary policy remains appropriately," recalled last week Wen Jiabao on the occasion of the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And to reaffirm its confidence in the euro area stressing that China was keen to diversify its huge foreign exchange reserves (2454 billion in late June) by buying other currencies than the dollar, Japanese yen and the euro particular.
Strong pressure
But the Chinese are concerned. The decline in consumer prices in the U.S. in June for the third consecutive month, makes them fear a risk of deflation in the U.S..Deflation, which leads consumers to indefinitely postpone their purchases and that discourages entrepreneurs from investing.
Beijing knows that long-term revaluation of the yuan will allow its exporters to improve the management of their enterprises to go upmarket and strengthen their competitiveness. This is the speech that he held the Americans and Europeans that add such an operation will also contribute to "reduce inflationary pressures from outside."
But in the short term the Chinese authorities think that the pressures are too strong. So, although it continues to assert that it will maintain a "regime of managed floating exchange rate, the speculation began to say that it will limit increases its currency to protect its exporters.
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